CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceChristl Arena, West Point, NY
Marist
Efficiency #153
2025-26: 19-12 · 13-9 conf
@
Army
Efficiency #336
2025-26: 11-21 · 5-14 conf
Tue, Nov 17 · 6:00 PM ET
71.8
win 64%
Projected
67.6
win 36%
No line posted yet.
Model: MRST −4.2 · total 139.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Army 68.2, Marist 67.6 → 67.4 possessions
−2.0
Army offense vs Marist defense
−7.5
Marist offense vs Army defense
+0.6
Projected total
139.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Army offense vs Marist defense
−7.5
Marist offense vs Army defense
−0.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Marist by 4.2
4.2
Marist side ◂▸ Army side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.3 against a projected 139.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Army.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Army is the faster team (67.2, #234 of 365) and Marist the slower (66.5, #271). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.4
model
Projected team totals
71.8 / 67.6
Marist / Army
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.6#246
Marist
68.2#195
Army
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageArmy
Where Army struggles: shooting
Army shoots an effective 49.3% (#279); Marist allows 45.6% (#5). Expect about 47.2%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversArmy
Army turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Army's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Marist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Marist at about 37.0% of its shots from three, Army about 48.8%.
ClashArmy
Style clash: ball movement
Army assists on 59.0% of its made baskets; Marist breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Marist has the ball
OffenseArmy allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #276
55.1% #334
+1.2 pt/100
16.9% #193
15.4% #257
+1.0 pt/100
29.1% #233
27.7% #54
-1.4 pt/100
25.7% #360
39.6% #298
-0.2 pt/100
78.1% #16
—
+0.5 pt/100
Marist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100
Army has the ball
OffenseMarist allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #279
45.6% #5
-5.8 pt/100
17.2% #220
19.5% #34
-2.4 pt/100
29.6% #219
28.3% #77
-1.0 pt/100
26.8% #352
37.6% #252
-0.3 pt/100
71.7% #215
—
-0.1 pt/100
Army net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMaristoffense vsArmydefense
Share of shots by zone
Marist shoots
35.8
6.9
23.6
33.7
Army allows
38.3
5.2
14.3
42.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#181 | 64.9%#348 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.7%#152 | 37.3%#121 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.5%#92 | 37.6%#144 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#272 | 35.6%#285 | 33.7% |
Armyoffense vsMaristdefense
Share of shots by zone
Army shoots
34.7
3.5
9.1
52.7
Marist allows
37.4
6.1
19.2
37.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.2%#187 | 54.0%#40 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.0%#194 | 36.7%#105 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 27.5%#364 | 34.9%#72 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#278 | 28.6%#2 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMarist
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#233
Def reb %
71.7%
#77
Turnover %
16.9%
#193
Forced TO %
19.5%
#34
FT rate
25.7%
#360
FT allowed
37.6%
#252
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Army
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#319 of 365
Off reb %
29.6%
#219
Def reb %
72.3%
#54
Turnover %
17.2%
#220
Forced TO %
15.4%
#257
FT rate
26.8%
#352
FT allowed
39.6%
#298
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed−1.1
Marist has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#218 of 365) to Army’s −3.7 (#319).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Marist2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jadin Collins-Roberts | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 30.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 47.2% | 23.8% | 1.4 | 80.4% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Jack Grahamat New Hampshire | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-23 | 28.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 32.2% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Myles Parker | F | So | 6'8" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 38.5% | 2.5 | 78.6% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Jordan Gabriel | C | So | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 21.5% | |
| 25 | Tarik Watson | C | Jr | 6'8" | 10-0 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.8% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 35.1% | |
| 23 | Brady MacAdams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Brandon Arnold | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Cameron Sweeney | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Drew Diaz | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Dywane Chess | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Edward Onyia | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Josh Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Logan Franz | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Logan Rodriguez | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)
Army2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Army's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ryan Curry | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-31 | 33.8 | 13.3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 50.4% | 33.5% | 7.3 | 81.3% | 25.6% | |
| 10 | Jacen Holloway | F | So | 6'4" | 31-23 | 28.2 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 54.5% | 30.9% | 1.8 | 64.8% | 23.3% | |
| 4 | Jaxson Bell | G | So | 6'3" | 30-8 | 25.3 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 51.5% | 35.9% | 4.8 | 80.9% | 29.8% | |
| 1 | Jackson Furman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-8 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 47.7% | 34.7% | 5.4 | 82.2% | 26.7% | |
| 22 | Kevin McCarthy | G | So | 6'4" | 30-29 | 24.3 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 50.9% | 34.6% | 5.3 | 68.8% | 20.9% | |
| 32 | Tate Laczkowski | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-30 | 21.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 57.1% | 28.1% | 1.0 | 43.8% | 15.8% | |
| 54 | Jorn Everson | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-26 | 18.9 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 30.1% | 3.5 | 60.0% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Joshua Eli | F | So | 6'6" | 29-0 | 14.3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 53.9% | 54.2% | 0.8 | 62.2% | 17.3% | |
| 24 | Alex Engro | G | So | 6'2" | 23-0 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 15.4% | |
| 13 | Dillon Watt | G | Fr | 5'11" | 21-0 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 17.6% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 84.2% | 18.0% | |
| 23 | Dylan Benner | F | Fr | 6'7" | 19-1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 43.1% | 20.8% | 1.3 | 62.5% | 22.3% | |
| 21 | Jackson Mayo | G | Sr | 6'0" | 16-2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 39.5% | 27.8% | 2.3 | 50.0% | 27.1% | |
| 0 | Dayon Polk | G | So | 6'0" | 10-1 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 1.2 | — | 18.9% | |
| 12 | Dylan Murans | F | So | 6'7" | 12-0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 17.5% | |
| 25 | Jahaan Green | G | Fr | 6'5" | 10-0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 100.0% | 21.9% | |
| 14 | Brendon O'Keefe | G | So | 5'10" | 8-0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.8 | — | 23.3% | |
| 34 | Nnaemeka Ikechi | F | So | 6'7" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 11.3% | |
| 15 | Chanse Perkins | F | Sr | 6'4" | 0-1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marist2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jadin Collins-Roberts | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 30.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 47.2% | 23.8% | 1.4 | 80.4% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Jack Grahamat New Hampshire | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-23 | 28.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 32.2% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Myles Parker | F | So | 6'8" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 38.5% | 2.5 | 78.6% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Jordan Gabriel | C | So | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 21.5% | |
| 25 | Tarik Watson | C | Jr | 6'8" | 10-0 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.8% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 35.1% | |
| 23 | Brady MacAdams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Brandon Arnold | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Cameron Sweeney | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Drew Diaz | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Dywane Chess | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Edward Onyia | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Josh Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Logan Franz | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Logan Rodriguez | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Marist
Against the spread
Season
15-14-1
Home
7-6-1
Road
6-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −1.6
Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
11-19
Home
4-10
Road
6-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.5
Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Merrimack | N | L 57–58 | +3.0 | W+2.0 | 128.5 | U115 | 89.2 | 90.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Quinnipiac | N | W 77–75 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 134.5 | O152 | 105.4 | 102.6 | 73.1 |
| Mar 1 | Saint Peter's | H | L 56–63 | −4.0 | L−11.0 | 132.0 | U119 | 87.6 | 98.6 | 63.9 |
| Feb 22 | Sacred Heart | H | W 65–63 | −7.5 | L−5.5 | 146.5 | U128 | 96.0 | 93.1 | 67.7 |
| Feb 20 | Manhattan | A | W 84–70 | −5.0 | W+9.0 | 142.0 | O154 | 131.2 | 109.3 | 64.0 |
| Feb 15 | Siena | H | L 63–67 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 102.7 | 65.3 |
| Feb 12 | Merrimack | A | L 56–81 | +2.5 | L−22.5 | 129.5 | O137 | 84.5 | 122.2 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Fairfield | A | L 60–63 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 138.0 | U123 | 98.1 | 103.0 | 61.2 |
| Feb 5 | Rider | H | W 81–52 | −14.0 | W+15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 137.2 | 88.1 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Niagara | A | W 58–46 | −9.5 | W+2.5 | 130.0 | U104 | 94.8 | 75.2 | 61.2 |
Army
Against the spread
Season
12-18
Home
4-10
Road
8-7
Last 10
1-9
avg cover −3.7
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-13
Home
7-7
Road
9-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −3.0
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | Bucknell | A | L 55–65 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 144.0 | U120 | 82.2 | 97.2 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | Lafayette | A | L 77–83 | +3.0 | L−3.0 | 144.5 | O160 | 106.2 | 114.5 | 72.5 |
| Feb 25 | Bucknell | H | L 73–75 | −3.5 | L−5.5 | 142.5 | O148 | 100.8 | 103.6 | 72.4 |
| Feb 21 | Navy | H | L 63–81 | +7.5 | L−10.5 | 137.5 | O144 | 98.4 | 126.5 | 64.0 |
| Feb 18 | Loyola MD | A | W 87–77 | +4.5 | W+14.5 | 150.0 | O164 | 126.1 | 111.6 | 69.0 |
| Feb 14 | American | A | L 63–75 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 145.5 | U138 | 95.8 | 114.0 | 65.8 |
| Feb 11 | Boston U | H | L 68–85 | +3.0 | L−14.0 | 140.0 | O153 | 108.8 | 136.1 | 62.5 |
| Feb 7 | Lafayette | H | L 60–63 | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 143.0 | U123 | 89.1 | 93.6 | 67.3 |
| Feb 4 | Colgate | A | L 55–69 | +10.0 | L−4.0 | 149.5 | U124 | 85.6 | 107.3 | 64.3 |
| Jan 31 | Holy Cross | H | W 69–68 | −3.0 | L−2.0 | 144.0 | U137 | 101.8 | 100.3 | 67.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMaristArmy
Efficiency
103.6
103.4
102.6
114.3
67.6
68.2
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
49.3%
49.8%
50.7%
32.2%
32.0%
78.1%
71.7%
25.7%
26.8%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
17.2%
19.5%
15.4%
29.1%
29.6%
28.3%
27.7%
10.0%
10.4%
8.3%
11.2%
Style
34.6%
53.3%
43.6%
37.8%
11.2%
9.6%
58.9%
59.0%
35.5%
36.6%
Roster
3.46
2.33
6'3.8"
6'3.9"
26.9%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMarist
Returning minutes: 26.9%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
- Rhyjon Blackwell 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Menard 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Lewis 22.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaden Daughtry 21.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Parby Kabamba 16.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jason Schofield 14.0 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jack Graham from New Hampshire · 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Cameron Sweeney no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Edward Onyia no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Franz no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season
Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Army
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Army's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 21 | 2025-26 | Army 65 – 76 Marist |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.