Lindenwood Lions vs Northern Iowa Panthers basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 17 · 8:00 PM ET · McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, IA
Non-conferenceESPN+McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, IA
Lindenwood
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #280
@
Northern Iowa
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #113
Tue, Nov 17 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Lindenwood is the faster team (75.5, #58 of 365) and Northern Iowa the slower (75.0, #66). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
74.2#28
Lindenwood
69.8#231
Northern Iowa
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Northern Iowa has the ball+8.3
Lindenwood has the ball+2.4
Northern Iowa has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.0% #24 · LIN forces 17.2% #203 · ~10 turnovers+3.8
✓Gets to the lineFTR 27.5% #283 · LIN allows 59.4% #338 · FT 84.2% #18+1.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 26.2% #272 · LIN allows 46.2% #347+1.5
✓Shoots it welleFG% 48.6% #202 · LIN allows 54.7% #254+1.3
Lindenwood has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 44.2% #279 · UNI allows 62.0% #336+2.6
✓Wins second chancesOR% 36.4% #92 · UNI allows 28.6% #132+0.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 26.5% #344 · UNI forces 12.0% #330 · ~14 turnovers−0.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.0% #201 · UNI allows 81.5% #359 · FT 28.6% #359−0.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootLindenwoodoffense vsNorthern Iowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Lindenwood shoots
33.3
7.7
15.4
43.6
Northern Iowa allows
29.4
2.0
5.9
62.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 69.2%#60 | 53.3%#115 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#45 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 23.8%#317 | 45.5%#344 | 32.5% |
Northern Iowaoffense vsLindenwooddefense
Share of shots by zone
Northern Iowa shoots
38.3
6.7
11.7
43.3
Lindenwood allows
52.6
5.3
10.5
31.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.9%#136 | 60.0%#195 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.6%#224 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.0%#209 | 52.6%#355 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineLindenwood
−15.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#92
Def reb %
53.8%
#347
Turnover %
26.5%
#344
Forced TO %
17.2%
#203
FT rate
35.0%
#201
FT allowed
59.4%
#338
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−4.8
Ball security−5.9
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−5.6
Northern Iowa
−14.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#345 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#272
Def reb %
71.4%
#132
Turnover %
12.0%
#24
Forced TO %
12.0%
#330
FT rate
27.5%
#283
FT allowed
81.5%
#359
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+4.4
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−11.3
Northern Iowa has more extra scoring chances per game: −14.5 (#345 of 365) to Lindenwood’s −15.9 (#350).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Lindenwood2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-3 | 24.0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 75.0% | 60.0% | 1.7 | 66.7% | 18.5% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 21.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 66.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 28.5% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 21.3 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 62.5% | 35.3% | 5.7 | 50.0% | 26.0% | Active | |
| 14 | G | So | 6'3" | 3-2 | 19.7 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 45.8% | 28.6% | 4.7 | 100.0% | 25.4% | Active | |
| 42 | F | Fr | 6'5" | 3-1 | 18.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 83.3% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 19.7% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 68.0% | 53.3% | 5.0 | 75.0% | 33.5% | Active | |
| 21 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 13.2% | Active | |
| 41 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 14.7 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 17.0% | Active | |
| 23 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 18.8% | Active | |
| 35 | F | Jr | 6'11" | 2-1 | 18.0 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 39.5% | Active | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 57.1% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 42.2% | Active | |
| 10 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 1-1 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 14.3% | 36.0% | Missed last | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 24.7% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 22.4% | Active |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesLindenwood
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −9.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +2.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | East West Phantoms | H | W 115–44 | — | — | — | — | 158.0 | 60.4 | 72.8 |
| Nov 5 | Central Bible Saints | H | W 120–46 | — | — | — | — | 155.9 | 59.8 | 77.0 |
| Nov 2 | TCU | A | L 59–98 | +29.5 | L−9.5 | 154.5 | O157 | 78.1 | 129.8 | 75.5 |
| Mar 5 | SE Missouri | N | L 66–68 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 149.0 | U134 | 97.2 | 100.1 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Little Rock | N | W 72–62 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | U134 | 93.0 | 80.1 | 77.4 |
| Feb 28 | W Illinois | A | W 91–69 | −11.5 | W+10.5 | 150.5 | O160 | 129.0 | 97.8 | 70.5 |
| Feb 26 | E Illinois | H | L 67–71 | −7.5 | L−11.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 96.9 | 102.7 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Tennessee Tech | A | L 57–72 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 152.0 | U129 | 86.1 | 108.8 | 66.2 |
| Feb 19 | Tennessee St | A | L 80–89 | +3.5 | L−5.5 | 159.0 | O169 | 100.9 | 112.2 | 79.3 |
| Feb 14 | SE Missouri | H | L 61–73 | −2.0 | L−14.0 | 156.5 | U134 | 84.2 | 100.8 | 72.4 |
Northern Iowa
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −9.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +30.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Furman | A | L 83–98 | +5.5 | L−9.5 | 150.5 | O181 | 110.7 | 130.7 | 75.0 |
| Nov 3 | Cornell (IA) Rams | H | W 106–70 | — | — | — | — | 118.8 | 78.4 | 89.3 |
| Mar 20 | #5St John's | N | L 53–79 | +10.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U132 | 84.0 | 125.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | UIC | N | W 84–69 | −3.0 | W+12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 141.8 | 116.5 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Bradley | N | W 73–69 | −4.5 | L−0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 115.3 | 108.9 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Illinois St | N | W 74–52 | −2.0 | W+20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 118.9 | 83.5 | 62.3 |
| Mar 5 | Evansville | N | W 68–59 | −15.0 | L−6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 108.3 | 94.0 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | Drake | A | W 75–53 | −4.0 | W+18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 119.1 | 84.2 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Illinois St | H | L 69–71 | −5.0 | L−7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 111.1 | 114.3 | 62.1 |
| Feb 21 | S Illinois | H | L 57–59 | −6.5 | L−8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 92.9 | 96.2 | 61.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLindenwoodNorthern Iowa
Efficiency
99.6
107.1
106.6
102.1
74.2
69.8
18.9
3.9
Shooting
44.2%
48.6%
48.7%
50.0%
23.8%
31.0%
28.6%
84.2%
35.0%
27.5%
Ball control & glass
26.5%
12.0%
17.2%
12.0%
36.4%
26.2%
46.2%
28.6%
19.9%
8.0%
7.7%
7.5%
Style
35.0%
42.0%
57.6%
45.8%
22.0%
12.0%
41.7%
37.9%
51.5%
49.5%
Roster
2.63
2.54
6'5.1"
6'5.4"
0.0%
9.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLindenwood
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Anias Futrell 30.6 mpg, 16.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mekhi Cooper 29.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Louisiana
- Dontrez Williams 28.2 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to UNLV
- Jadis Jones 27.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to USC
- Milos Nenadic 27.5 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Clayton Jackson 25.0 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Xavier Spencer from UMass Lowell · 33.9 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Noah Taitz from Utah Valley · 17.3 mpg, 4.4 ppg last season
- Matar Diop from Stetson · 12.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
- Makhan Diouf from Fresno St · 2.7 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Malek Archie from Tarleton St · 0.7 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Marko Lukanoski no D1 minutes last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Northern Iowa
Returning minutes: 9.6%Returning production: 5.7%
Lost
- Trey Campbell 33.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Utah
- Leon Bond III 32.8 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- Ben Schwieger 27.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Will Hornseth 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Utah State
- Max Weisbrod 24.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Tristan Smith 16.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tate McCubbin from Austin Peay · 29.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Greyson Uelmen from North Dakota · 27.8 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu from St Thomas · 20.7 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Carson Vis from W Michigan · 14.8 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Ian Smikle from Tulsa · 13.8 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
- Jules Isebaert no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 17
- Hofstra vs Murray St · 12:00 PM ET
- Rutgers vs Houston · 2:00 PM ET
- Notre Dame vs Florida · 4:30 PM ET
- Marist at Army · 6:00 PM ET
- Liberty vs S Illinois · 6:00 PM ET
- Saint Peter's at UMass Lowell · 6:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Purdue · 6:30 PM ET
- W Carolina at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at Providence · 7:00 PM ET
- Cleveland St at Xavier · 7:00 PM ET
- Illinois at Duke · 7:00 PM ET
- Ball State at Florida St · 7:00 PM ET
- Villanova at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- Monmouth at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
- Bowling Green at William & Mary · 7:00 PM ET
- C Michigan at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
- Fordham at Manhattan · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Wagner at Saint Joseph's · 7:00 PM ET
- CSU Northridge at Troy · 7:00 PM ET
- Norfolk St at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- ETSU at Marshall · 7:00 PM ET
- Lehigh at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Miami · 7:00 PM ET
- Mississippi St at UCF · 7:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at West Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Akron at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Charlotte at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Kennesaw St at Alabama · 7:30 PM ET
- Bryant at UMass · 7:30 PM ET
- Arkansas vs Indiana · 7:30 PM ET
- FIU at UAB · 7:30 PM ET
- Jax State at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- MD Eastern at DePaul · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Evansville · 8:00 PM ET
- MTSU at GA Southern · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Rice · 8:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at Illinois St · 8:00 PM ET
- E Illinois at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
- Lamar at Omaha · 8:00 PM ET
- UT Arlington at Southern Miss · 8:00 PM ET
- E Washington at Utah · 8:30 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Wyoming · 8:30 PM ET
- Nicholls at Ole Miss · 8:30 PM ET
- Michigan St at Tennessee · 9:00 PM ET
- Alabama St at UC Davis · 9:00 PM ET
- Old Dominion at Virginia · 9:00 PM ET
- UNLV vs Kansas · 9:30 PM ET
- Seattle U at CA Baptist · 10:00 PM ET
- UC Irvine at Stanford · 10:00 PM ET
- Montana St at Gonzaga · 11:00 PM ET
- West Virginia vs Auburn · 11:59 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.