South Alabama Jaguars vs SMU Mustangs basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 20 · 8:00 PM ET · Moody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX

Non-conferenceACCNXMoody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX
South Alabama
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #216
@
SMU
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #72
Fri, Nov 20 · 8:00 PM ET
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Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, SMU is the faster team (79.7, #18 of 365) and South Alabama the slower (65.8, #317). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.2
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#326
South Alabama
74.8#16
SMU

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
SMU has the ball+7.5
South Alabama has the ball−7.6
SMU has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 62.1% #18 · USA allows 58.7% #310+11.5
✗Coughs it upTO% 25.1% #333 · USA forces 18.2% #164 · ~16 turnovers−3.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.8% #211 · USA allows 27.5% #118−1.4
✓Gets to the lineFTR 57.0% #19 · USA allows 28.9% #88 · FT 77.0% #74+0.9
South Alabama has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 20.8% #331 · SMU allows 28.9% #139−3.8
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 52.4% #151 · SMU allows 41.4% #39−3.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.0% #190 · SMU allows 39.3% #207 · FT 64.4% #264−0.3
✗Coughs it upTO% 12.8% #41 · SMU forces 23.2% #49 · ~13 turnovers−0.1

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
South Alabamaoffense vsSMUdefense
Share of shots by zone
South Alabama shoots
SMU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim78.1%#944.2%#3258.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.0%#7533.3%#12538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#11728.6%#11634.7%
Three22.4%#33231.0%#14632.5%
SMUoffense vsSouth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
SMU shoots
South Alabama allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.4%#16169.6%#30058.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.0%#7528.6%#10038.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)66.7%#1627.3%#10634.7%
Three45.7%#1441.6%#31332.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
South Alabama
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#121 of 365
Off reb %
20.8%
#331
Def reb %
72.5%
#118
Turnover %
12.8%
#41
Forced TO %
18.2%
#164
FT rate
36.0%
#190
FT allowed
28.9%
#88
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.6
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security+3.8
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+2.4
SMU
+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#119 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#211
Def reb %
71.1%
#139
Turnover %
25.1%
#333
Forced TO %
23.2%
#49
FT rate
57.0%
#19
FT allowed
39.3%
#207
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−4.9
Forcing turnovers+3.7
Foul shots drawn+5.1
Foul shots allowed−0.4

SMU has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#119 of 365) to South Alabama’s +3.7 (#121).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
South Alabama2026-27 numbers · last game: Jax State, Nov 5
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
1GJr6'1"2-239.533—Started last25.02.52.01.556.1%29.4%8.586.7%32.6%
21GSr6'0"2-235.032—Started last12.02.02.50.540.0%23.5%8.557.1%25.2%
13GFr6'8"2-234.027—Started last12.53.06.04.561.8%100.0%0.557.1%25.5%
4FJr6'9"2-233.533—Started last20.510.50.50.075.0%—0.041.7%26.9%
24FSo6'9"2-221.519—Started last2.03.00.50.020.0%0.0%1.5100.0%8.1%
6FJr6'10"2-018.521—Bench0.02.50.50.00.0%0.0%1.5—5.1%
9FSr6'7"2-015.513—Bench2.01.51.50.540.0%0.0%1.0—11.6%
10FSo6'6"2-011.57—Bench4.51.00.51.080.0%—0.050.0%19.9%
3GSo6'3"2-08.07—Bench0.01.00.00.50.0%0.0%0.5—11.0%
0GSo6'2"2-08.08—Bench1.50.50.00.525.0%20.0%2.5—26.0%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
South AlabamaSMU
Efficiency
104.9
111.9
108.3
103.0
68.0
74.8
-1.0
-13.2
Shooting
52.4%
62.1%
64.5%
57.4%
22.4%
45.7%
64.4%
77.0%
36.0%
57.0%
Ball control & glass
12.8%
25.1%
18.2%
23.2%
20.8%
29.8%
27.5%
28.9%
8.8%
18.8%
10.5%
4.9%
Style
39.2%
43.0%
57.5%
31.1%
12.5%
20.0%
46.7%
83.9%
27.3%
39.8%
Roster
2.70
2.81
6'5.4"
6'6.5"
11.6%
15.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
South Alabama
Returning minutes: 11.6%Returning production: 17.7%
Lost
  • Adam Olsen 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
  • Chaze Harris 31.8 mpg, 19.2 ppg · transferred to Charlotte
  • Jayden Cooper 30.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to ETSU
  • Randy Brady 26.9 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Hantz Louis-Jeune 23.5 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • John Broom 14.3 mpg, 2.1 ppg · transferred to Vermont
Added
  • Roderick Williams Jr. new to D1 · 21.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
  • Davaughn Hueitt new to D1 · 13.0 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
  • Desmond Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Jalen Langsy no D1 minutes last season
  • Alexey Sereda no D1 minutes last season
  • Keyne Costa no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 12% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

SMU
Returning minutes: 15.8%Returning production: 13.5%
Lost
  • Boopie Miller 34.1 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaron Pierre Jr. 33.2 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Samet Yigitoglu 28.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Indiana
  • Corey Washington 27.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • B.J. Edwards 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
  • B.J. Davis-Ray 6.7 mpg, 1.2 ppg · transferred to N Kentucky
Added
  • Rowan Brumbaugh from Tulane · 36.1 mpg, 19.2 ppg last season
  • David Terrell Jr. from North Texas · 32.8 mpg, 13.5 ppg last season
  • Oziyah Sellers from St John's · 28.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
  • Johan Munch from Oregon St · 19.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
  • Jaylin Stewart from UConn · 12.9 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
  • Nic Codie from Texas · 10.5 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 20

← Thu, Nov 19 · Sat, Nov 21 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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