South Carolina State Bulldogs vs The Citadel Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET · McAlister Field House, Charleston, SC

Non-conferenceESPN+McAlister Field House, Charleston, SC

SC State

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #300

The Citadel

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #351

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, SC State is the faster team (73.7, #91 of 365) and The Citadel the slower (62.9, #348). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.7

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.7#62

SC State

67.5#339

The Citadel

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

The Citadel has the ball−15.3

SC State has the ball+7.6

The Citadel has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 43.6% #285 · SCST allows 40.6% #31−8.7

✗Coughs it upTO% 30.2% #355 · SCST forces 21.0% #85 · ~19 turnovers−7.4

✓Gets to the lineFTR 34.0% #214 · SCST allows 71.3% #356 · FT 68.8% #202+1.5

✗Few second chancesOR% 32.3% #163 · SCST allows 27.1% #109−0.7

SC State has the ball

✓Wins second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · CIT allows 57.9% #359+4.9

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.9% #84 · CIT forces 15.9% #239 · ~10 turnovers+2.9

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 33.9% #216 · CIT allows 19.1% #16 · FT 76.7% #76−0.7

✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.0% #176 · CIT allows 51.5% #197+0.4

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

SC Stateoffense vsThe Citadeldefense

Share of shots by zone

SC State shoots

28.6

12.6

19.3

39.5

The Citadel allows

50.0

3.4

5.2

41.4

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	47.1%#300	62.1%#223	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	53.3%#73	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	26.1%#242	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	38.8%#74	27.6%#87	32.5%

The Citadeloffense vsSC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

The Citadel shoots

28.6

7.1

2.4

61.9

SC State allows

40.4

3.2

11.7

44.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	41.7%#329	50.0%#75	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#183	33.3%#125	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	0.0%#327	27.3%#106	34.7%
Three	32.1%#179	22.7%#28	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

SC State

−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

72.9%

#109

Turnover %

14.9%

#84

Forced TO %

21.0%

#85

FT rate

33.9%

#216

FT allowed

71.3%

#356

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−8.7

The Citadel

−14.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#343 of 365

Off reb %

32.3%

#163

Def reb %

42.1%

#359

Turnover %

30.2%

#355

Forced TO %

15.9%

#239

FT rate

34.0%

#214

FT allowed

19.1%

#16

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−8.8

Ball security−8.5

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+4.9

SC State has more extra scoring chances per game: −4.2 (#241 of 365) to The Citadel’s −14.5 (#343).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

SC State2026-27 numbers · last game: Chicago St, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	PG	Jr	6'2"	3-0	27.0	28	—	Bench	8.3	2.3	4.7	1.3	63.2%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.5%
0	G	So	6'5"	3-3	25.3	31	—	Started last	15.7	2.3	0.3	0.7	55.1%	38.2%	11.3	80.0%	29.9%
12	G	Jr	6'3"	3-3	21.0	14	—	Started last	9.0	2.7	4.0	1.0	56.7%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	18.8%
13	F	So	6'7"	3-3	18.0	17	—	Started last	9.7	4.7	0.0	0.0	57.9%	—	0.0	63.6%	23.6%
10	F	Fr	6'9"	3-3	16.3	23	—	Started last	5.3	2.7	1.3	1.3	68.2%	60.0%	1.7	100.0%	16.5%
55	F	Jr	6'6"	3-3	15.3	20	—	Started last	4.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	27.8%	0.0%	1.0	40.0%	26.6%
6	F	Jr	6'7"	3-0	13.3	10	—	Bench	6.3	4.0	0.7	1.0	35.3%	0.0%	0.7	70.0%	31.6%
4	G	Jr	6'8"	3-0	13.0	16	—	Bench	6.0	2.0	0.3	0.3	38.2%	27.3%	3.7	100.0%	27.3%
2	PG	Fr	5'11"	3-0	11.0	8	—	Bench	6.3	0.3	0.7	0.3	56.7%	41.7%	4.0	100.0%	26.4%
7	F	So	6'10"	2-0	15.5	22	—	Bench	6.0	2.0	1.5	1.0	80.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	17.3%
3	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	8.0	—	—	Active	3.0	0.7	0.3	1.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	24.0%
92	F	So	6'10"	3-0	7.3	—	—	Active	0.7	2.3	0.7	0.0	25.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.1%
23	F	So	6'8"	3-0	7.3	3	—	Bench	3.7	1.7	0.0	1.0	55.6%	—	0.0	50.0%	30.3%
5	G	Jr	6'5"	3-0	6.7	—	—	Active	2.7	1.7	0.3	1.3	26.9%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	44.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

SC State

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

2-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +14.2

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +2.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Chicago StAdjEM #349	A	W 82–67	+2.0	W+17.0	144.5	O149	114.7	93.7	71.5
Nov 6	SC UpstateAdjEM #310	A	W 78–70	+3.5	W+11.5	148.5	U148	102.9	92.3	75.8
Nov 2	Morris Hornets	H	W 94–55	—	—	—	—	114.2	66.8	82.3
Mar 13	HowardAdjEM #170	N	L 61–78	+15.5	L−1.5	146.0	U139	82.8	105.9	73.6
Mar 12	Norfolk StAdjEM #314	N	W 88–82	+8.5	W+14.5	144.5	O170	116.6	108.6	75.5
Mar 5	NC CentralAdjEM #311	A	W 80–64	+7.5	W+23.5	141.5	O144	114.6	91.7	69.8
Mar 2	Delaware StAdjEM #342	A	W 61–59	+3.0	W+5.0	134.5	U120	99.9	96.6	61.1
Feb 28	MD EasternAdjEM #323	A	L 57–69	+6.0	L−6.0	132.5	U126	85.9	104.0	66.3
Feb 25	Morgan StAdjEM #325	H	L 83–90	+1.5	L−5.5	154.5	O173	113.8	123.4	73.0
Feb 21	Norfolk StAdjEM #314	A	L 71–90	+10.0	L−9.0	140.5	O161	99.5	126.1	71.4

The Citadel

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −10.0

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −14.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 10	Virginia Lynchburg Dragons	H	W 131–50	—	—	—	—	161.1	61.5	81.3
Nov 6	Erskine Flying Fleet	H	W 100–57	—	—	—	—	135.4	77.2	73.9
Nov 2	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #181	A	L 52–77	+15.0	L−10.0	143.0	U129	82.7	122.4	62.9
Mar 7	ETSUAdjEM #139	N	L 76–83	+15.0	W+8.0	139.0	O159	116.9	127.7	65.0
Mar 6	ChattanoogaAdjEM #226	N	W 88–85	+7.5	W+10.5	147.5	O173	138.7	133.9	63.5
Feb 28	WoffordAdjEM #291	A	W 93–90 OT	+12.0	W+15.0	148.0	O183	126.1	122.1	73.7
Feb 25	FurmanAdjEM #120	A	L 51–72	+15.5	L−5.5	143.5	U123	85.2	120.3	59.8
Feb 21	ChattanoogaAdjEM #226	H	L 72–93	+4.0	L−17.0	144.0	O165	99.8	128.9	72.1
Feb 19	SamfordAdjEM #186	H	L 75–78	+10.5	W+7.5	144.0	O153	105.8	110.0	70.9
Feb 14	MercerAdjEM #201	H	L 54–70	+12.0	L−4.0	147.5	U124	87.6	113.6	61.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SC StateThe Citadel

Efficiency

99.5

98.3

108.9

114.8

72.7

67.5

-13.4

-1.6

Shooting

50.0%

43.6%

44.9%

36.8%

38.8%

32.1%

76.7%

68.8%

33.9%

34.0%

Ball control & glass

14.9%

30.2%

21.0%

15.9%

29.7%

32.3%

27.1%

57.9%

4.8%

14.3%

2.6%

10.5%

Style

38.6%

59.6%

36.3%

26.9%

9.4%

25.0%

59.3%

81.3%

52.0%

39.6%

Roster

2.31

3.13

6'5.5"

6'5.2"

29.6%

13.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SC State

Returning minutes: 29.6%Returning production: 26.8%

Lost

Jayden Johnson 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Florian Tenebay 22.2 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Obie Bronston Jr. 17.8 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to Cleveland St
Cameron Clark 16.8 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Rayniel Wright 16.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
James Morrow 15.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Jacksonville

Added

DeShaun Jackson Jr. from Mercyhurst · 22.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
Brian Harris new to D1 · 16.0 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
Mitchell Taylor no D1 minutes last season
Treven Raymon no D1 minutes last season
Bryce Adams no D1 minutes last season
Andre NGomabie no D1 minutes last season

Returns 30% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

The Citadel

Returning minutes: 13.8%Returning production: 11.7%

Lost

Braxton Williams 29.3 mpg, 14.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sola Adebisi 29.2 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Carter Kingsbury 27.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Eze Wali 25.3 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to West Florida
Christian Moore 23.5 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Butler
Logan Applegate 15.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Eddrin Bronson from Furman · 18.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
Ramel Bethea from Green Bay · 11.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
Chase Cormier from Iona · 9.3 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
Tyler Mrus from BYU · 7.4 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
Colin McKenzie from SC State · 3.0 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
Joe Hurlburt from Davidson · 2.1 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season

Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 20

Temple vs MTSU · 12:30 PM ET
Oklahoma St vs Minnesota · 12:30 PM ET
G Washington vs UAB · 2:00 PM ET
Indiana St vs SF Austin · 3:00 PM ET
W Illinois vs UAlbany · 3:00 PM ET
Northwestern vs Virginia Tech · 3:00 PM ET
S Dakota St at Idaho St · 4:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
Manhattan at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
UT Martin vs S Illinois · 5:30 PM ET
Mercyhurst at Canisius · 5:30 PM ET
Dayton vs Utah · 5:30 PM ET
Delaware at CSU Northridge · 6:00 PM ET
North Texas at App State · 6:30 PM ET
Coastal at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
C Michigan at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
Wagner at Maryland · 7:00 PM ET
Saint Joseph's at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
Harvard at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
Loyola MD at Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
W Michigan at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
Kansas City at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
Bellarmine at E Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
Niagara at Delaware St · 7:00 PM ET
Oakland at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
Georgia St at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond vs Western KY · 7:00 PM ET
Iowa at Xavier · 7:30 PM ET
UT Arlington at N'Western St · 7:30 PM ET
Mississippi St vs Tulsa · 7:30 PM ET
Georgia at Georgia Tech · 8:00 PM ET
Green Bay at Florida St · 8:00 PM ET
Campbell at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
Utah Valley vs East Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
Kentucky vs Indiana · 8:00 PM ET
Le Moyne at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
Lipscomb at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
UCF at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
Miss Valley St at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
South Alabama at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
Marshall at North Carolina · 9:00 PM ET
E Illinois at Illinois · 9:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
Sam Houston at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at Fresno St · 10:00 PM ET
Saint Louis at Saint Mary's · 11:00 PM ET

← Thu, Nov 19 · Sat, Nov 21 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.