CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteColonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WVGreenbrier Tip-Off
Liberty
Efficiency #103
2025-26: 26-8 · 17-4 conf
vs
Rhode Island
Efficiency #137
2025-26: 16-16 · 7-12 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 4:30 PM ET
71.6
win 54%
Projected
70.4
win 46%
No line posted yet.
Model: LIB −1.2 · total 142.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Rhode Island 67.3, Liberty 66.1 → 65.0 possessions
−7.1
Rhode Island offense vs Liberty defense
−0.1
Liberty offense vs Rhode Island defense
+1.1
Projected total
142.1
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Rhode Island offense vs Liberty defense
−0.1
Liberty offense vs Rhode Island defense
−1.1
Liberty by 1.2
1.2
Liberty side ◂▸ Rhode Island side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rhode Island.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Rhode Island is the faster team (66.0, #295 of 365) and Liberty the slower (64.5, #339). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.1
model
Projected team totals
71.6 / 70.4
Liberty / Rhode Island
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.1#340
Liberty
67.3#267
Rhode Island

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLiberty
Where Liberty scores: shooting
Liberty shoots an effective 59.1% (#4); Rhode Island allows 50.4% (#124). Expect about 55.4%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Rhode Island averages 66.0 possessions per 40, Liberty 64.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassLiberty
Liberty gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 23.3% is worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions against Liberty's offense.
ClashRhode Island
Style match: ball movement
Rhode Island creates off the dribble (assists on 47.9% of its baskets); Liberty breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 45.6% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rhode Island, Liberty, Liberty's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Liberty at about 47.4% of its shots from three, Rhode Island about 40.8%.
AdvantageRhode Island
Where Rhode Island struggles: ball control
Rhode Island turns it over on 19.2% of possessions (#329); Liberty forces turnovers on 17.1% of opponent possessions (#147). Expect about 18.3%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.
Liberty has the ball
OffenseRhode Island allowsvs D1 avg
59.1% #4
50.4% #124
+5.8 pt/100
13.4% #12
21.1% #10
-1.0 pt/100
19.3% #365
31.8% #247
-4.3 pt/100
31.4% #273
42.6% #331
+0.3 pt/100
71.4% #228
—
-0.1 pt/100
Liberty net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100
Rhode Island has the ball
OffenseLiberty allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #231
52.7% #251
+0.0 pt/100
19.2% #329
17.1% #147
-1.9 pt/100
31.0% #163
33.1% #302
+1.1 pt/100
38.4% #92
27.0% #23
-0.4 pt/100
72.1% #206
—
-0.0 pt/100
Rhode Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Libertyoffense vsRhode Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Liberty shoots
Rhode Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.5%#2855.3%#7158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.0%#14734.0%#4439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#10931.0%#1038.0%
Three38.6%#834.7%#23233.7%
Rhode Islandoffense vsLibertydefense
Share of shots by zone
Rhode Island shoots
Liberty allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.1%#26955.8%#8358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.2%#19243.2%#25539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4939.9%#24038.0%
Three31.1%#31837.7%#35333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Liberty
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#207 of 365
Off reb %
19.3%
#365
Def reb %
66.9%
#302
Turnover %
13.4%
#12
Forced TO %
17.1%
#147
FT rate
31.4%
#273
FT allowed
27.0%
#23
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.6
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Rhode Island
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#175 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#163
Def reb %
68.2%
#247
Turnover %
19.2%
#329
Forced TO %
21.1%
#10
FT rate
38.4%
#92
FT allowed
42.6%
#331
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers+3.0
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.9

Rhode Island has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#175 of 365) to Liberty’s −0.6 (#207).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Liberty2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
25Zach ClevelandFSr6'7"33-3334.911.97.66.83.260.7%0.0%0.153.1%23.2%
4Brett Decker Jr.GSo6'3"34-3433.616.92.61.10.764.3%47.1%7.184.8%24.8%
3Kaden MethenyGSr5'11"33-3233.813.13.03.11.260.1%39.6%7.675.0%21.8%
0Colin PorterGSr5'10"32-3234.311.13.03.41.353.6%35.8%5.491.1%19.4%
12Josh SmithFSr6'9"33-515.47.53.70.40.665.1%43.8%0.577.0%24.5%
1Zander CarterGFr6'6"34-013.13.31.70.80.356.1%30.0%1.246.3%15.4%
11Zander YatesFSr6'8"27-06.51.81.00.30.346.9%34.1%1.560.0%21.0%
21Ryan Jones Jr.FFr6'8"25-05.32.11.20.00.251.0%27.8%1.4—25.5%
15Drew GrimesFFr6'9"12-04.41.20.80.10.242.9%0.0%0.253.3%18.3%
20Torr SorensenFFr6'7"9-03.31.10.60.00.044.4%25.0%0.9100.0%19.8%
24Brady KesterFFr6'8"6-04.81.01.00.00.3100.0%—0.00.0%11.2%
10JC Shirer Jr.GJr6'3"7-04.12.00.60.70.170.0%50.0%0.6—22.5%
23TJ DrainFFr6'8"7-03.72.30.90.30.172.7%—0.00.0%29.6%
7Isaiah IhnenFJr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LibertyRhode Island
Efficiency
114.2
106.3
110.5
104.4
66.1
67.3
—
—
Shooting
59.1%
50.1%
60.2%
52.8%
38.6%
31.1%
71.4%
72.1%
31.4%
38.4%
Ball control & glass
13.4%
19.2%
17.1%
21.1%
19.3%
31.0%
33.1%
31.8%
8.0%
11.9%
11.0%
10.2%
Style
47.7%
43.5%
43.0%
40.5%
8.5%
16.5%
61.4%
47.9%
19.7%
29.0%
Roster
3.25
3.52
6'3.2"
6'4.5"
86.7%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Liberty
Returning minutes: 86.7%Returning production: 84.4%
Lost
  • JJ Harper 26.8 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Isaiah Ihnen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Rhode Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.