CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteElridge Blake Sports and Fitness Center, Charlotte Amalie, Virgin IslandsU.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam

Indiana St

Efficiency #213

2025-26: 11-21 · 4-17 conf

SF Austin

Efficiency #73

2025-26: 28-6 · 21-3 conf

Fri, Nov 20 · 3:00 PM ET

69.4

win 31%

Projected

75.2

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: SFA −5.8 · total 144.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: SF Austin 67.3, Indiana St 68.8 → 67.8 possessions

−1.1

SF Austin offense vs Indiana St defense

+1.6

Indiana St offense vs SF Austin defense

−4.1

Projected total

144.6

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

SF Austin offense vs Indiana St defense

+1.6

Indiana St offense vs SF Austin defense

+4.1

SF Austin by 5.8

5.8

Indiana St side ◂▸ SF Austin side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.7 against +5.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SF Austin.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Indiana St is the faster team (68.3, #183 of 365) and SF Austin the slower (66.2, #285). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.6

model

Projected team totals

69.4 / 75.2

Indiana St / SF Austin

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#133

Indiana St

67.3#268

SF Austin

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSF Austin

Where SF Austin scores: ball control

SF Austin turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#29); Indiana St forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#301). Expect about 14.1%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIndiana St

Where Indiana St struggles: ball control

Indiana St turns it over on 19.5% of possessions (#338); SF Austin forces turnovers on 17.6% of opponent possessions (#116). Expect about 18.9%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassIndiana St

Indiana St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.0% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Indiana St's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (SF Austin's defense, Indiana St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Indiana St at about 41.5% of its shots from three, SF Austin about 36.5%.

GlassSF Austin

SF Austin owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for SF Austin's offense.

ClashIndiana St

Style clash: ball movement

Indiana St assists on 64.9% of its made baskets; SF Austin breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 57.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Indiana St has the ball

OffenseSF Austin allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #110

47.7% #35

-1.3 pt/100

19.5% #338

17.6% #116

-2.6 pt/100

26.2% #317

29.5% #131

-2.1 pt/100

27.4% #349

31.1% #85

-0.7 pt/100

67.8% #329

—

-0.4 pt/100

Indiana St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.1 pts/100

SF Austin has the ball

OffenseIndiana St allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #160

50.2% #110

-0.4 pt/100

14.3% #29

14.9% #301

+3.3 pt/100

33.8% #74

31.8% #245

+1.8 pt/100

30.1% #306

28.7% #39

-0.8 pt/100

68.6% #310

—

-0.3 pt/100

SF Austin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Indiana Stoffense vsSF Austindefense

Share of shots by zone

Indiana St shoots

43.3

5.1

6.6

45.0

SF Austin allows

40.2

7.1

17.2

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#54	53.1%#24	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.0%#349	43.6%#260	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.9%#39	39.8%#234	38.0%
Three	31.5%#305	30.3%#11	33.7%

SF Austinoffense vsIndiana Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

SF Austin shoots

35.4

6.4

18.7

39.5

Indiana St allows

39.4

8.4

18.2

34.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.0%#240	56.4%#94	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.1%#102	44.2%#272	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.5%#94	47.3%#363	38.0%
Three	35.8%#71	31.2%#37	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Indiana St

−5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#346 of 365

Off reb %

26.2%

#317

Def reb %

68.2%

#245

Turnover %

19.5%

#338

Forced TO %

14.9%

#301

FT rate

27.4%

#349

FT allowed

28.7%

#39

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−1.9

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.9

Foul shots allowed+1.7

SF Austin

+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#44 of 365

Off reb %

33.8%

#74

Def reb %

70.5%

#131

Turnover %

14.3%

#29

Forced TO %

17.6%

#116

FT rate

30.1%

#306

FT allowed

31.1%

#85

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+1.1

SF Austin has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.6 (#44 of 365) to Indiana St’s −5.1 (#346).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Indiana St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Ian Scott	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	30.0	13.5	6.5	2.6	2.1	66.9%	38.8%	1.5	72.4%	23.1%
8	Camp Wagner	G	Jr	6'6"	32-26	28.8	11.9	4.4	1.9	1.7	49.4%	34.3%	7.4	91.5%	26.3%
30	Xavier Hall	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	27.7	7.6	2.1	4.2	1.7	48.1%	23.6%	2.8	75.0%	19.0%
0	Sterling Young	G	Sr	6'1"	30-24	23.4	10.0	1.5	1.8	1.6	48.7%	34.3%	4.7	86.4%	27.7%
4	Bruno Alocen	G	So	6'6"	32-9	21.3	6.3	2.9	1.5	1.1	48.5%	30.3%	3.8	80.0%	19.5%
10	Enel St. Bernard	F	Jr	6'6"	31-0	18.2	5.9	5.5	0.9	0.9	66.9%	0.0%	0.1	39.4%	18.4%
35	Derek Vorst	C	Jr	6'10"	22-13	20.4	7.9	3.9	1.3	0.9	59.1%	42.1%	0.9	53.8%	21.8%
11	Markus Harding	C	Sr	6'10"	22-16	20.4	7.3	3.5	0.8	2.0	56.4%	34.1%	2.0	52.4%	24.1%
7	Hunter Harding	C	So	7'1"	13-3	7.2	1.8	1.2	0.5	0.5	88.5%	60.0%	0.4	33.3%	13.1%
13	Cooper Bean	G	So	6'3"	16-0	4.9	1.4	0.3	0.6	0.4	61.1%	33.3%	0.8	0.0%	17.5%
2	Jayan Walker	G	So	6'6"	11-0	7.1	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.8	52.3%	27.3%	1.0	80.0%	23.6%
9	Sivert Waerstad Nordheim	G	Fr	6'6"	18-0	4.2	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.1	38.7%	16.7%	0.7	80.0%	25.9%
5	Zyair Greene	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	7.3	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	35.0%	12.5%	2.0	50.0%	20.3%
12	Caden Huttenlocker	G	Jr	6'2"	9-0	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	0.9	—	27.0%
21	Martin Kaupanger	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SF Austin2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SF Austin's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Keon Thompson	G	Sr	6'1"	34-34	29.8	18.5	4.8	4.4	2.6	52.8%	32.1%	2.5	69.3%	38.3%
1	Chrishawn Christmas	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	29.1	6.3	6.8	1.8	0.8	54.0%	0.0%	0.1	43.1%	13.9%
11	Lateef Patrick	G	Jr	—	34-34	28.5	15.2	3.1	1.7	1.4	47.1%	33.8%	6.3	81.3%	34.0%
2	Jerald Colonel	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	25.1	5.0	7.3	1.3	0.7	50.4%	0.0%	0.0	56.4%	13.1%
6	Narit Chotikavanic	G	So	—	34-0	22.5	9.6	2.8	0.6	0.4	56.2%	39.4%	6.5	70.3%	23.3%
0	Kam Burton	G	Jr	6'3"	34-34	18.6	7.9	1.8	0.3	0.5	59.2%	42.5%	5.3	85.2%	22.4%
21	Ahamed Mohammed	G	Sr	—	34-0	15.8	4.4	1.7	1.5	0.8	42.5%	33.3%	1.9	75.0%	20.3%
17	Gediminas Alisas	F	So	—	34-0	14.0	4.9	2.4	1.2	0.8	63.2%	0.0%	0.0	67.6%	19.7%
4	Marcus Scurry	G	Fr	—	28-0	7.3	3.1	0.5	0.4	0.4	51.9%	35.6%	1.6	58.3%	26.8%
3	Christian Green	G	Jr	—	28-0	6.9	1.0	1.3	0.3	0.3	54.2%	—	0.0	33.3%	10.8%
12	Eltramon Smith Jr.	F	So	—	16-0	7.1	1.9	1.3	0.5	0.4	40.8%	13.0%	1.4	0.0%	23.8%
7	Tichyque Musaka	F	Jr	6'11"	8-0	3.8	1.6	1.9	0.1	0.1	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	20.0%	24.9%
9	Harris Dar	G	So	—	8-0	3.3	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	—	10.9%
8	Bryceson Melvin	G	Fr	—	4-0	5.8	1.8	2.0	0.0	0.0	23.1%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	32.3%
10	Yohan Gutierrez	F	Fr	—	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Indiana St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Ian Scott	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	30.0	13.5	6.5	2.6	2.1	66.9%	38.8%	1.5	72.4%	23.1%
8	Camp Wagner	G	Jr	6'6"	32-26	28.8	11.9	4.4	1.9	1.7	49.4%	34.3%	7.4	91.5%	26.3%
30	Xavier Hall	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	27.7	7.6	2.1	4.2	1.7	48.1%	23.6%	2.8	75.0%	19.0%
0	Sterling Young	G	Sr	6'1"	30-24	23.4	10.0	1.5	1.8	1.6	48.7%	34.3%	4.7	86.4%	27.7%
4	Bruno Alocen	G	So	6'6"	32-9	21.3	6.3	2.9	1.5	1.1	48.5%	30.3%	3.8	80.0%	19.5%
10	Enel St. Bernard	F	Jr	6'6"	31-0	18.2	5.9	5.5	0.9	0.9	66.9%	0.0%	0.1	39.4%	18.4%
35	Derek Vorst	C	Jr	6'10"	22-13	20.4	7.9	3.9	1.3	0.9	59.1%	42.1%	0.9	53.8%	21.8%
11	Markus Harding	C	Sr	6'10"	22-16	20.4	7.3	3.5	0.8	2.0	56.4%	34.1%	2.0	52.4%	24.1%
7	Hunter Harding	C	So	7'1"	13-3	7.2	1.8	1.2	0.5	0.5	88.5%	60.0%	0.4	33.3%	13.1%
13	Cooper Bean	G	So	6'3"	16-0	4.9	1.4	0.3	0.6	0.4	61.1%	33.3%	0.8	0.0%	17.5%
2	Jayan Walker	G	So	6'6"	11-0	7.1	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.8	52.3%	27.3%	1.0	80.0%	23.6%
9	Sivert Waerstad Nordheim	G	Fr	6'6"	18-0	4.2	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.1	38.7%	16.7%	0.7	80.0%	25.9%
5	Zyair Greene	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	7.3	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	35.0%	12.5%	2.0	50.0%	20.3%
12	Caden Huttenlocker	G	Jr	6'2"	9-0	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	0.9	—	27.0%
21	Martin Kaupanger	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Indiana St

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

7-6

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.4

Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

5-8

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −5.0

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	N	L 62–63	+2.5	W+1.5	142.0	U125	103.9	105.6	59.7
Mar 1	UICAdjEM #99	H	W 79–63	+4.0	W+20.0	144.0	U142	117.0	93.3	67.5
Feb 25	S IllinoisAdjEM #107	A	L 55–66	+8.0	L−3.0	149.0	U121	77.8	93.4	70.7
Feb 21	BelmontAdjEM #54	A	L 70–87	+13.0	L−4.0	156.0	O157	95.9	119.2	73.0
Feb 18	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	H	L 60–81	+5.0	L−16.0	135.5	O141	92.3	124.6	65.0
Feb 15	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	A	L 75–76	+5.0	W+4.0	145.0	O151	122.8	124.4	61.1
Feb 12	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	L 72–74	+3.5	W+1.5	164.0	U146	110.9	114.0	64.9
Feb 9	S IllinoisAdjEM #107	H	L 65–80	+1.5	L−13.5	147.5	U145	87.1	107.2	74.7
Feb 3	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	A	W 84–63	−1.0	W+20.0	145.0	O147	134.0	100.5	62.7
Jan 31	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	H	L 72–76 OT	−2.5	L−6.5	145.0	O148	101.2	106.8	71.2

SF Austin

Against the spread

Season

23-9

Home

10-4

Road

13-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Covered the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	TulsaAdjEM #46	A	L 84–89 OT	+6.5	W+1.5	150.5	O173	107.0	113.3	78.5
Mar 11	McNeeseAdjEM #49	N	L 59–76	+3.5	L−13.5	134.5	O135	92.4	119.0	63.9
Mar 10	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	N	W 60–58	−6.0	L−4.0	134.5	U118	98.0	94.7	61.3
Mar 2	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	A	W 76–68	−7.0	W+1.0	143.5	O144	126.2	113.0	60.2
Feb 28	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	A	W 77–56	−8.5	W+12.5	137.5	U133	122.9	89.4	62.6
Feb 23	LSU N OrleansAdjEM #221	H	L 73–77	−11.5	L−15.5	152.0	U150	107.5	113.4	67.9
Feb 21	NichollsAdjEM #250	H	W 81–78	−12.0	L−9.0	148.5	O159	122.0	117.5	66.4
Feb 16	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	W 78–68	−5.0	W+5.0	136.5	O146	116.4	101.5	67.0
Feb 14	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	W 66–57	+2.5	W+11.5	143.5	U123	105.5	91.1	62.6
Feb 9	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	H	W 74–70	−15.0	L−11.0	144.5	U144	110.7	104.7	66.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Indiana StSF Austin

Efficiency

106.3

111.2

108.1

104.5

68.8

67.3

—

Shooting

52.8%

51.7%

57.4%

50.4%

31.5%

35.8%

67.8%

68.6%

27.4%

30.1%

Ball control & glass

19.5%

14.3%

14.9%

17.6%

26.2%

33.8%

31.8%

29.5%

11.4%

8.2%

13.4%

10.1%

Style

45.2%

39.8%

48.3%

41.1%

12.2%

9.6%

64.9%

48.5%

33.9%

34.7%

Roster

3.33

3.23

6'5.3"

6'4.5"

91.7%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Indiana St

Returning minutes: 91.7%Returning production: 93.1%

Lost

Jo Van Buggenhout 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart

Added

Martin Kaupanger no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

SF Austin

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SF Austin's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.