CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceKnott Arena, Emmitsburg, MD
W Michigan
Efficiency #276
2025-26: 10-21 · 4-14 conf
@
Mount St Marys
Efficiency #265
2025-26: 15-17 · 11-10 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET
71.4
win 35%
Projected
75.9
win 65%
No line posted yet.
Model: MSM −4.4 · total 147.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Mount St Marys 68.5, W Michigan 68.6 → 68.9 possessions
+1.2
Mount St Marys offense vs W Michigan defense
−0.8
W Michigan offense vs Mount St Marys defense
−1.3
Projected total
147.3
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Mount St Marys offense vs W Michigan defense
−0.8
W Michigan offense vs Mount St Marys defense
+1.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Mount St Marys by 4.4
4.4
W Michigan side ◂▸ Mount St Marys side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.5 against +4.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Mount St Marys.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Michigan is the faster team (69.0, #148 of 365) and Mount St Marys the slower (67.7, #214). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.3
model
Projected team totals
71.4 / 75.9
W Michigan / Mount St Marys
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#153
W Michigan
68.5#164
Mount St Marys
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageW Michigan
Where W Michigan struggles: shooting
W Michigan shoots an effective 49.9% (#241); Mount St Marys allows 47.2% (#23). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMount St Marys
Where Mount St Marys scores: shooting
Mount St Marys shoots an effective 50.6% (#208); W Michigan allows 54.4% (#310). Expect about 52.5%, 1.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashW Michigan
Style clash: 3-point volume
W Michigan rarely shoots threes (36.1% of its shots); Mount St Marys lets opponents take 44.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
W Michigan has the ball
OffenseMount St Marys allowsvs D1 avg
49.9% #241
47.2% #23
-4.1 pt/100
16.9% #198
15.3% #261
+1.0 pt/100
30.5% #177
29.1% #114
-0.3 pt/100
32.8% #241
37.3% #247
+0.0 pt/100
74.4% #104
—
+0.2 pt/100
W Michigan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100
Mount St Marys has the ball
OffenseW Michigan allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #208
54.4% #310
+1.7 pt/100
22.4% #364
13.4% #346
-1.3 pt/100
32.3% #115
29.1% #110
+0.4 pt/100
33.3% #230
37.5% #251
+0.1 pt/100
67.4% #337
—
-0.4 pt/100
Mount St Marys net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersW Michiganoffense vsMount St Marysdefense
Share of shots by zone
W Michigan shoots
39.5
5.4
19.6
35.5
Mount St Marys allows
32.9
3.1
19.0
45.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.2%#338 | 49.4%#4 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.0%#171 | 38.5%#145 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.2%#180 | 38.1%#162 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.3%#95 | 32.3%#81 | 33.7% |
Mount St Marysoffense vsW Michigandefense
Share of shots by zone
Mount St Marys shoots
42.3
4.1
10.9
42.8
W Michigan allows
38.9
4.9
12.8
43.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.2%#188 | 60.5%#250 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.6%#158 | 48.1%#340 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.2%#359 | 37.0%#130 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.7%#244 | 36.1%#307 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersW Michigan
−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#302 of 365
Off reb %
30.5%
#177
Def reb %
70.9%
#110
Turnover %
16.9%
#198
Forced TO %
13.4%
#346
FT rate
32.8%
#241
FT allowed
37.5%
#251
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−2.3
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Mount St Marys
−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#343 of 365
Off reb %
32.3%
#115
Def reb %
70.9%
#114
Turnover %
22.4%
#364
Forced TO %
15.3%
#261
FT rate
33.3%
#230
FT allowed
37.3%
#247
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−3.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed−0.5
W Michigan has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.0 (#302 of 365) to Mount St Marys’s −4.7 (#343).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
W Michigan2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | EJ Ryans | G | So | 6'3" | 31-31 | 27.3 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 46.8% | 31.2% | 3.0 | 89.1% | 17.9% | |
| 12 | Jayden Brewer | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-28 | 25.4 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 47.5% | 31.6% | 1.2 | 70.8% | 32.4% | |
| 2 | Jalen Griffith | G | Jr | 5'10" | 27-17 | 22.9 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 55.3% | 41.2% | 4.2 | 81.5% | 29.5% | |
| 11 | Justice Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 18-14 | 30.1 | 15.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 50.2% | 36.4% | 4.9 | 85.1% | 29.6% | |
| 4 | Brady Swartz | G | Fr | 6'7" | 25-17 | 20.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 50.3% | 34.1% | 3.4 | 69.6% | 21.2% | |
| 7 | Carson Vis | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-0 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 48.6% | 30.6% | 1.6 | 60.7% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Sharod Barnes | G | Fr | 6'2" | 27-0 | 12.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 34.6% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 82.4% | 22.1% | |
| 24 | Michael Sulaka | F | So | 6'9" | 24-1 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 70.6% | 15.4% | |
| 22 | Declan Peterson | C | Sr | 6'11" | 27-0 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 60.5% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 16.8% | |
| 8 | Hudson Ward | F | So | 6'7" | 13-6 | 18.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 54.6% | 33.3% | 2.1 | 0.0% | 13.8% | |
| 52 | Junior Sileu | F | Fr | 6'10" | 9-0 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.3% | |
| 9 | Nicholas Errica | G | Fr | 6'3" | 6-0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.8% | 16.7% | 1.0 | — | 19.7% | |
| 23 | Camden Thompson | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Mount St Marys2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Redd Thompson Jr.at Longwood | G | Jr | 5'11" | 32-1 | 22.1 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 49.2% | 32.9% | 4.6 | 88.0% | 28.9% | |
| 4 | Mason So | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-16 | 18.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 51.5% | 35.5% | 2.0 | 78.9% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | Abdou Khadre Kebe | G | Jr | 6'7" | 22-13 | 21.9 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 47.3% | 27.8% | 3.6 | 69.0% | 24.6% | |
| 30 | Anthony Arrington Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 22-2 | 19.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 37.8% | 21.7% | 2.7 | 50.0% | 28.3% | |
| 1 | Anastasios Rozakeas | G | Jr | 6'8" | 24-8 | 14.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 45.7% | 32.9% | 2.9 | 83.3% | 18.4% | |
| 7 | Wilguens Jr. Exacteat Drake | F | Sr | 6'6" | 18-13 | 19.4 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 45.2% | 22.2% | 2.5 | 68.3% | 27.3% | |
| 23 | Yakhya Diop | F | So | 7'0" | 31-0 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 64.7% | 16.1% | |
| 10 | Cade Ornessat Gonzaga | G | So | 6'4" | 8-0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 20.0% | 20.2% | |
| 5 | Noah Rogers | G | Jr | 5'11" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 10.1% | |
| 6 | Jaxon Hartman | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Crue Gard | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Julien Smith | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Liam Joyce | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Miquel Llompart | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Noah Limol | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Ryan Brzezanski | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Wilguens Jr. Exacte (from Drake), Cade Orness (from Gonzaga), Redd Thompson Jr. (from Longwood)
W Michigan2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | EJ Ryans | G | So | 6'3" | 31-31 | 27.3 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 46.8% | 31.2% | 3.0 | 89.1% | 17.9% | |
| 12 | Jayden Brewer | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-28 | 25.4 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 47.5% | 31.6% | 1.2 | 70.8% | 32.4% | |
| 2 | Jalen Griffith | G | Jr | 5'10" | 27-17 | 22.9 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 55.3% | 41.2% | 4.2 | 81.5% | 29.5% | |
| 11 | Justice Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 18-14 | 30.1 | 15.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 50.2% | 36.4% | 4.9 | 85.1% | 29.6% | |
| 4 | Brady Swartz | G | Fr | 6'7" | 25-17 | 20.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 50.3% | 34.1% | 3.4 | 69.6% | 21.2% | |
| 7 | Carson Vis | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-0 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 48.6% | 30.6% | 1.6 | 60.7% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Sharod Barnes | G | Fr | 6'2" | 27-0 | 12.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 34.6% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 82.4% | 22.1% | |
| 24 | Michael Sulaka | F | So | 6'9" | 24-1 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 70.6% | 15.4% | |
| 22 | Declan Peterson | C | Sr | 6'11" | 27-0 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 60.5% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 16.8% | |
| 8 | Hudson Ward | F | So | 6'7" | 13-6 | 18.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 54.6% | 33.3% | 2.1 | 0.0% | 13.8% | |
| 52 | Junior Sileu | F | Fr | 6'10" | 9-0 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.3% | |
| 9 | Nicholas Errica | G | Fr | 6'3" | 6-0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.8% | 16.7% | 1.0 | — | 19.7% | |
| 23 | Camden Thompson | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26W Michigan
Against the spread
Season
15-13-1
Home
8-5
Road
7-8-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +1.6
Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
18-11
Home
7-6
Road
11-5
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +1.6
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Kent State | A | L 78–86 | +13.5 | W+5.5 | 157.5 | O164 | 111.1 | 122.5 | 70.2 |
| Mar 3 | Ball State | H | L 71–74 OT | −2.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | O145 | 99.0 | 103.2 | 71.7 |
| Feb 27 | #21Miami OH | H | L 67–69 | +11.5 | W+9.5 | 163.0 | U136 | 98.3 | 101.2 | 68.2 |
| Feb 24 | Bowling Green | A | W 88–79 | +12.0 | W+21.0 | 149.0 | O167 | 120.6 | 108.3 | 73.0 |
| Feb 21 | C Michigan | A | L 70–83 | +3.5 | L−9.5 | 151.5 | O153 | 94.0 | 111.5 | 74.5 |
| Feb 17 | Akron | H | L 73–90 | +14.0 | L−3.0 | 159.0 | O163 | 107.5 | 132.6 | 67.9 |
| Feb 14 | E Michigan | A | W 76–62 | +6.5 | W+20.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 117.6 | 96.0 | 64.6 |
| Feb 11 | Toledo | H | L 79–90 | +6.5 | L−4.5 | 154.5 | O169 | 115.0 | 131.0 | 68.7 |
| Feb 7 | Texas St | A | L 61–77 | +6.5 | L−9.5 | 146.5 | U138 | 94.9 | 119.8 | 64.3 |
| Feb 3 | Ohio | A | L 71–91 | +10.5 | L−9.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 102.7 | 131.6 | 69.2 |
Mount St Marys
Against the spread
Season
17-13-1
Home
7-5
Road
10-7-1
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +3.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
10-21
Home
4-8
Road
6-12
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.7
Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Siena | N | L 58–63 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 135.0 | U121 | 96.1 | 104.4 | 60.3 |
| Mar 1 | Fairfield | A | W 69–47 | +3.5 | W+25.5 | 146.5 | U116 | 103.2 | 70.3 | 66.8 |
| Feb 27 | Sacred Heart | A | L 69–77 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 150.5 | U146 | 104.7 | 116.9 | 65.9 |
| Feb 22 | Canisius | H | W 68–47 | −7.5 | W+13.5 | 137.5 | U115 | 108.5 | 75.0 | 62.6 |
| Feb 20 | Niagara | H | W 76–63 | −7.5 | W+5.5 | 131.0 | O139 | 108.6 | 90.1 | 69.9 |
| Feb 13 | Rider | A | W 65–55 | −5.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | U120 | 100.1 | 84.7 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | Iona | A | W 83–76 | +4.0 | W+11.0 | 141.0 | O159 | 131.1 | 120.0 | 63.3 |
| Feb 5 | Merrimack | H | L 70–87 | +2.0 | L−15.0 | 135.0 | O157 | 98.8 | 122.8 | 70.8 |
| Feb 1 | Manhattan | H | W 72–65 | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 146.5 | U137 | 110.1 | 99.4 | 65.4 |
| Jan 30 | Saint Peter's | A | L 58–66 | +6.0 | L−2.0 | 139.5 | U124 | 94.3 | 107.3 | 61.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeW MichiganMount St Marys
Efficiency
107.3
102.5
113.3
107.8
68.6
68.5
—
—
Shooting
49.9%
50.6%
48.1%
51.8%
35.3%
32.7%
74.4%
67.4%
32.8%
33.3%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
22.4%
13.4%
15.3%
30.5%
32.3%
29.1%
29.1%
9.5%
12.8%
11.9%
8.5%
Style
36.1%
42.6%
40.7%
44.8%
14.5%
12.0%
48.1%
55.2%
37.5%
31.3%
Roster
2.48
3.33
6'4.3"
6'4.2"
79.4%
32.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputW Michigan
Returning minutes: 79.4%Returning production: 81.4%
Lost
- Max Burton 23.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Trey Lewis 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Camden Thompson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Mount St Marys
Returning minutes: 32.5%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
- Xavier Lipscomb 31.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Arlandus Keyes 27.7 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Luke McEldon 24.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Deveaux 23.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Amadi 19.8 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Patrick Haigh 6.5 mpg, 2.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Redd Thompson Jr. from Longwood · 22.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
- Wilguens Jr. Exacte from Drake · 10.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
- Cade Orness from Gonzaga · 0.6 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
- Liam Joyce no D1 minutes last season
- Crue Gard no D1 minutes last season
- Miquel Llompart no D1 minutes last season
Returns 33% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 23 | 2025-26 | Mount St Marys 60 – 83 W Michigan |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.