CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceICCU Arena, Moscow, ID
Bakersfield
Efficiency #339
2025-26: 8-24 · 2-18 conf
@
Idaho
Efficiency #156
2025-26: 21-15 · 13-9 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 9:00 PM ET
69.2
win 14%
Projected
82.0
win 86%
No line posted yet.
Model: IDHO −12.7 · total 151.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Idaho 68.4, Bakersfield 70.2 → 70.2 possessions
+4.2
Idaho offense vs Bakersfield defense
+3.7
Bakersfield offense vs Idaho defense
−4.9
Projected total
151.2
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Idaho offense vs Bakersfield defense
+3.7
Bakersfield offense vs Idaho defense
+4.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Idaho by 12.7
12.7
Bakersfield side ◂▸ Idaho side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +12.6 against +12.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Idaho.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bakersfield is the faster team (72.6, #14 of 365) and Idaho the slower (69.1, #139). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.2
model
Projected team totals
69.2 / 82.0
Bakersfield / Idaho
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#39
Bakersfield
68.4#176
Idaho

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBakersfield
Where Bakersfield struggles: shooting
Bakersfield shoots an effective 45.7% (#355); Idaho allows 50.5% (#128). Expect about 47.7%, 3.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Idaho averages 69.1 possessions per 40, Bakersfield 72.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashBakersfield
Style match: 3-point volume
Bakersfield rarely shoots threes (28.9% of its shots); Idaho runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 28.4% — both habits push the same way.
ClashBakersfield
Style match: ball movement
Bakersfield creates off the dribble (assists on 44.6% of its baskets); Idaho breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.7% — both habits push the same way.
DefenseBakersfield
Bakersfield's shot-blocking
Bakersfield ranks #18 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.1% of Idaho's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageIdaho
Where Idaho scores: shooting
Idaho shoots an effective 51.4% (#177); Bakersfield allows 54.0% (#301). Expect about 52.7%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
Bakersfield has the ball
OffenseIdaho allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #355
50.5% #128
-5.2 pt/100
18.9% #316
15.1% #283
-0.1 pt/100
30.4% #181
24.2% #5
-1.8 pt/100
42.2% #27
38.5% #273
+0.7 pt/100
73.8% #142
—
+0.1 pt/100
Bakersfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.3 pts/100
Idaho has the ball
OffenseBakersfield allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #177
54.0% #301
+2.0 pt/100
15.0% #64
17.9% #100
+0.4 pt/100
28.4% #250
35.6% #349
+0.7 pt/100
34.6% #193
42.6% #334
+0.5 pt/100
72.6% #181
—
+0.0 pt/100
Idaho net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Bakersfieldoffense vsIdahodefense
Share of shots by zone
Bakersfield shoots
Idaho allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#28955.5%#7658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.3%#33943.7%#26339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.0%#22238.8%#19538.0%
Three29.0%#35335.2%#26433.7%
Idahooffense vsBakersfielddefense
Share of shots by zone
Idaho shoots
Bakersfield allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.8%#24560.1%#22858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.2%#21642.6%#24039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18540.7%#26938.0%
Three34.1%#16836.0%#30533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Bakersfield
−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#277 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#181
Def reb %
64.4%
#349
Turnover %
18.9%
#316
Forced TO %
17.9%
#100
FT rate
42.2%
#27
FT allowed
42.6%
#334
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−1.9
Idaho
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#250
Def reb %
75.8%
#5
Turnover %
15.0%
#64
Forced TO %
15.1%
#283
FT rate
34.6%
#193
FT allowed
38.5%
#273
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.8

Idaho has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#158 of 365) to Bakersfield’s −2.3 (#277).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bakersfield2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
15Dailin SmithGSr6'6"30-2729.316.52.40.91.641.2%28.0%5.480.6%32.8%
10AJ GeorgeGSr6'5"30-2928.18.23.51.51.741.3%20.8%1.665.0%21.7%
21Ronald JessamyFJr6'8"31-2326.013.56.61.22.852.8%20.0%0.567.6%31.0%
1Tom MarkFSr6'7"27-1925.06.74.21.01.051.7%32.7%2.068.1%15.4%
12Kadar WallerGSr5'11"32-620.53.31.82.81.338.5%29.6%0.873.8%13.0%
0CJ HardyGSr6'3"22-2128.112.43.82.92.450.0%31.3%3.083.2%25.7%
2Mike PriceGFr6'3"31-518.26.51.10.81.243.9%32.3%3.170.4%24.8%
7Pierre Geneste Jr.CSr6'11"26-1918.93.07.00.30.861.1%—0.036.7%10.3%
25Jaden AlexanderGJr6'4"20-1019.69.33.40.51.447.0%35.3%1.782.9%27.6%
5Bentley WallerGFr6'4"22-111.14.01.30.61.049.3%36.8%0.987.5%22.5%
3Dylan PurnellGSo6'5"16-08.62.61.90.30.639.3%10.0%0.642.9%23.4%
4Caleb McCartyFSr6'8"6-08.73.22.50.30.261.5%—0.075.0%16.6%
40TJ James Jr.GFr6'1"10-04.01.00.60.20.031.3%15.4%1.30.0%21.2%
11Colin DarbyFSo6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BakersfieldIdaho
Efficiency
102.7
108.3
114.0
107.3
70.2
68.4
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
51.4%
46.6%
51.6%
29.0%
34.1%
73.8%
72.6%
42.2%
34.6%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
15.0%
17.9%
15.1%
30.4%
28.4%
35.6%
24.2%
10.4%
9.0%
9.1%
9.0%
Style
28.9%
47.0%
41.8%
39.4%
16.0%
9.2%
44.6%
44.6%
32.3%
31.4%
Roster
3.37
2.88
6'5.1"
6'5.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Bakersfield
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Idaho
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Dec 232025-26Idaho 63 – 64 Bakersfield

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.