CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceVyStar Arena, Kennesaw, GACancun Challenge - Campus Game
SE Louisiana
Efficiency #296
2025-26: 9-22 · 6-16 conf
@
Kennesaw St
Efficiency #154
2025-26: 21-14 · 13-10 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · TBD
69.0
win 20%
Projected
78.6
win 80%
No line posted yet.
Model: KENN −9.6 · total 147.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kennesaw St 70.8, SE Louisiana 67.1 → 69.5 possessions
+2.6
Kennesaw St offense vs SE Louisiana defense
+1.2
SE Louisiana offense vs Kennesaw St defense
−4.4
Projected total
147.6
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kennesaw St offense vs SE Louisiana defense
+1.2
SE Louisiana offense vs Kennesaw St defense
+4.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Kennesaw St by 9.6
9.6
SE Louisiana side ◂▸ Kennesaw St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kennesaw St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kennesaw St is the faster team (71.8, #28 of 365) and SE Louisiana the slower (65.6, #312). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.6
model
Projected team totals
69.0 / 78.6
SE Louisiana / Kennesaw St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#282
SE Louisiana
70.8#20
Kennesaw St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSE Louisiana
Where SE Louisiana struggles: shooting
SE Louisiana shoots an effective 46.7% (#343); Kennesaw St allows 48.3% (#43). Expect about 47.1%, 4.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.9 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseKennesaw St
Kennesaw St's shot-blocking
Kennesaw St ranks #13 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.0% of SE Louisiana's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Kennesaw St averages 71.8 possessions per 40, SE Louisiana 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageKennesaw St
Where Kennesaw St scores: the offensive glass
Kennesaw St rebounds 35.2% of its own misses (#44); SE Louisiana lets opponents grab 31.4% of their own misses (#225). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (SE Louisiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SE Louisiana at about 38.5% of its shots from three, Kennesaw St about 40.9%.
TurnoversKennesaw St
Kennesaw St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Kennesaw St's offense.
SE Louisiana has the ball
OffenseKennesaw St allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #343
48.3% #43
-5.9 pt/100
18.4% #291
16.0% #221
-0.6 pt/100
28.6% #245
31.6% #234
-0.4 pt/100
40.3% #56
47.1% #358
+1.2 pt/100
68.4% #318
—
-0.4 pt/100
SE Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.0 pts/100
Kennesaw St has the ball
OffenseSE Louisiana allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #224
52.4% #233
+0.0 pt/100
16.7% #178
19.1% #46
-1.8 pt/100
35.2% #44
31.4% #225
+2.3 pt/100
45.1% #5
41.2% #314
+1.1 pt/100
70.1% #268
—
-0.2 pt/100
Kennesaw St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
SE Louisianaoffense vsKennesaw Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
SE Louisiana shoots
Kennesaw St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.7%#17151.0%#858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.8%#30944.6%#28439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.1%#30936.1%#11338.0%
Three28.4%#36233.5%#15433.7%
Kennesaw Stoffense vsSE Louisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Kennesaw St shoots
SE Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.7%#25059.1%#19558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32946.7%#32839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.4%#30236.9%#12738.0%
Three33.4%#20336.0%#30133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
SE Louisiana
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#200 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#245
Def reb %
68.6%
#225
Turnover %
18.4%
#291
Forced TO %
19.1%
#46
FT rate
40.3%
#56
FT allowed
41.2%
#314
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.5
Kennesaw St
+0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#166 of 365
Off reb %
35.2%
#44
Def reb %
68.4%
#234
Turnover %
16.7%
#178
Forced TO %
16.0%
#221
FT rate
45.1%
#5
FT allowed
47.1%
#358
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed−3.0

Kennesaw St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.4 (#166 of 365) to SE Louisiana’s −0.5 (#200).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jeremy ElyzeeFSo6'7"31-3129.511.14.51.81.948.9%21.2%1.770.3%25.7%
23Isaiah GainesFSr6'8"31-3128.310.66.21.61.954.9%9.1%0.463.4%23.9%
1Makhi MylesFSo6'7"31-1821.07.73.60.60.950.5%34.3%3.382.8%22.7%
10Jaiden LawrenceGJr6'4"31-1820.35.12.40.60.545.9%29.9%3.566.7%17.2%
4CJ BookerPGSo5'10"30-2220.54.71.32.00.845.4%39.7%1.972.2%17.3%
8Peter HemschemeierGFr6'5"27-1220.36.41.61.91.640.7%27.5%4.473.1%27.2%
3Ethan PickettGSr6'5"31-2117.65.12.41.31.144.4%16.0%0.868.4%21.4%
2Jalen ForrestGJr6'4"28-017.27.92.60.61.044.0%26.5%2.478.8%29.6%
5Kyle EdisonGSo6'3"25-29.83.21.50.90.843.8%23.1%1.664.9%25.4%
6Ubong-Abasi EtimCSr6'9"31-07.41.21.50.20.251.5%—0.016.7%12.1%
32Garrett ShoemakerFFr6'9"24-07.11.91.40.10.451.5%29.4%0.735.7%20.5%
12Ahmed EssahatyGSr6'2"16-010.12.21.40.80.938.9%21.1%1.258.3%21.1%
7Seth JonesGJr6'1"8-019.87.32.81.02.341.7%27.9%5.480.0%30.3%
11Amir ChaneyPGFr5'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Cody Al-NaziatGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SE LouisianaKennesaw St
Efficiency
102.1
109.6
109.1
108.5
67.1
70.8
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
50.4%
49.4%
50.5%
28.4%
33.4%
68.4%
70.1%
40.3%
45.1%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
16.7%
19.1%
16.0%
28.6%
35.2%
31.4%
31.6%
10.1%
11.0%
9.7%
13.0%
Style
39.5%
42.5%
43.8%
40.7%
12.2%
11.3%
51.6%
50.9%
37.4%
34.4%
Roster
2.67
2.17
6'5.1"
6'6.7"
—
86.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
SE Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Kennesaw St
Returning minutes: 86.5%Returning production: 84.0%
Lost
  • RJ Johnson 27.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
  • Brendan Tousignaut no D1 minutes last season
  • Chase Clemmons no D1 minutes last season
  • Nigel Thomas no D1 minutes last season
  • Jamil Miller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.