CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +2.5 against +2.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Illinois.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Illinois is the faster team (69.8, #100 of 365) and UT Martin the slower (65.9, #298). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.3%#183 | 58.1%#148 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.2%#285 | 36.2%#93 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.4%#207 | 42.4%#315 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.3%#337 | 30.4%#17 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#169 | 61.1%#272 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.9%#81 | 26.5%#4 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.0%#57 | 33.8%#47 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.8%#363 | 30.2%#9 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersS Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#81 of 365) to UT Martin’s +1.2 (#128).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | Matas Deniusas | F | Fr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 49.7% | 33.6% | 4.2 | 75.2% | 31.0% | |
| 32 | Filip Petkovski | G | Fr | 6'5" | 30-28 | 26.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 48.6% | 29.9% | 3.2 | 55.8% | 16.6% | |
| 33 | Filip Radakovic | G | So | 6'7" | 28-26 | 26.3 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 39.7% | 17.3% | 1.9 | 81.6% | 26.8% | |
| 4 | Afan Trnka | G | Jr | 6'2" | 29-11 | 23.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 41.5% | 28.7% | 3.7 | 67.6% | 22.0% | |
| 9 | Pedro Santos | G | Fr | 6'7" | 31-12 | 18.4 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 46.9% | 28.2% | 2.5 | 67.7% | 27.4% | |
| 5 | Damien King | G | Fr | 6'4" | 29-8 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 46.5% | 19.6% | 1.6 | 70.7% | 22.2% | |
| 24 | Vladimir Khryapa | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-3 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 41.0% | 24.1% | 1.0 | 45.8% | 16.6% | |
| 77 | Luca Colceag | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 46.7% | 29.7% | 2.6 | 57.1% | 20.0% | |
| 11 | AJ Hopkins | F | Sr | 6'6" | 30-1 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 52.2% | 36.4% | 2.6 | 72.2% | 19.7% | |
| 34 | Lamine Niang | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 21.8% | |
| 7 | Dragos Lungu | G | So | 6'6" | 6-6 | 25.7 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 65.0% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 54.5% | 30.8% | |
| 22 | Ty Price | G | Fr | 5'10" | 17-0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 45.1% | 34.4% | 1.9 | 87.5% | 29.6% | |
| 10 | Ama Sow | F | Fr | 6'9" | 6-0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 68.8% | 100.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 22.0% | |
| 6 | Charlie King | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Enrique Moya | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | James Bass | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Lucas Williams | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Will Hopkins | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Quel'Ron House | G | So | 6'0" | 30-28 | 30.1 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 48.3% | 25.5% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 32.3% | |
| 10 | Damien Mayo Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-25 | 25.4 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 53.5% | 37.1% | 3.1 | 78.4% | 21.1% | |
| 0 | Rolyns Aligbe | F | So | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.4 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 51.6% | 34.8% | 2.2 | 66.2% | 23.4% | |
| 5 | Jalen Haynes | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-7 | 20.8 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 46.3% | 20.5% | 2.4 | 78.2% | 24.9% | |
| 8 | Prince Aligbe | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 22.1 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 44.5% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 56.1% | 23.8% | |
| 4 | Davion Sykes | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-3 | 19.0 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 71.4% | 22.5% | |
| 9 | Isaiah Stafford | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-4 | 19.1 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 43.4% | 20.4% | 3.1 | 75.8% | 25.0% | |
| 35 | Max Pikaar | F | So | 7'0" | 27-0 | 10.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 41.5% | 25.9% | 1.0 | 61.1% | 13.4% | |
| 25 | Jorge Moreno | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-0 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 64.4% | — | 0.0 | 41.9% | 16.5% | |
| 33 | Jaheem Webber | C | Fr | 6'10" | 19-0 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 63.2% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 11.7% | |
| 3 | Caden Hawkins | G | Jr | 6'0" | 15-0 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 16.1% | |
| 7 | Daniel Pauliukonis | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Luke Walsh | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | Matas Deniusas | F | Fr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 49.7% | 33.6% | 4.2 | 75.2% | 31.0% | |
| 32 | Filip Petkovski | G | Fr | 6'5" | 30-28 | 26.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 48.6% | 29.9% | 3.2 | 55.8% | 16.6% | |
| 33 | Filip Radakovic | G | So | 6'7" | 28-26 | 26.3 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 39.7% | 17.3% | 1.9 | 81.6% | 26.8% | |
| 4 | Afan Trnka | G | Jr | 6'2" | 29-11 | 23.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 41.5% | 28.7% | 3.7 | 67.6% | 22.0% | |
| 9 | Pedro Santos | G | Fr | 6'7" | 31-12 | 18.4 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 46.9% | 28.2% | 2.5 | 67.7% | 27.4% | |
| 5 | Damien King | G | Fr | 6'4" | 29-8 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 46.5% | 19.6% | 1.6 | 70.7% | 22.2% | |
| 24 | Vladimir Khryapa | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-3 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 41.0% | 24.1% | 1.0 | 45.8% | 16.6% | |
| 77 | Luca Colceag | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 46.7% | 29.7% | 2.6 | 57.1% | 20.0% | |
| 11 | AJ Hopkins | F | Sr | 6'6" | 30-1 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 52.2% | 36.4% | 2.6 | 72.2% | 19.7% | |
| 34 | Lamine Niang | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 21.8% | |
| 7 | Dragos Lungu | G | So | 6'6" | 6-6 | 25.7 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 65.0% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 54.5% | 30.8% | |
| 22 | Ty Price | G | Fr | 5'10" | 17-0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 45.1% | 34.4% | 1.9 | 87.5% | 29.6% | |
| 10 | Ama Sow | F | Fr | 6'9" | 6-0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 68.8% | 100.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 22.0% | |
| 6 | Charlie King | F | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Enrique Moya | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | James Bass | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Lucas Williams | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Will Hopkins | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Tennessee St | N | L 55–68 | +2.0 | L−11.0 | 137.5 | U123 | 90.1 | 111.4 | 61.1 |
| Mar 5 | E Illinois | N | W 66–63 | −8.0 | L−5.0 | 126.0 | O129 | 106.7 | 101.8 | 61.9 |
| Feb 28 | Tennessee St | H | L 42–67 | −2.5 | L−27.5 | 143.5 | U109 | 63.6 | 101.5 | 66.0 |
| Feb 26 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 64–49 | −7.0 | W+8.0 | 133.5 | U113 | 97.0 | 74.2 | 66.0 |
| Feb 19 | Little Rock | A | L 65–67 | −2.5 | L−4.5 | 136.0 | U132 | 109.0 | 112.3 | 59.6 |
| Feb 17 | SE Missouri | H | L 53–56 OT | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 138.5 | U109 | 74.2 | 78.4 | 71.5 |
| Feb 14 | SIUE | A | W 81–76 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 130.0 | O157 | 119.7 | 112.3 | 67.7 |
| Feb 12 | Lindenwood | A | L 74–75 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 145.5 | O149 | 106.8 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
| Feb 7 | Morehead St | H | L 55–61 | −9.0 | L−15.0 | 136.0 | U116 | 91.3 | 101.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 5 | S Indiana | H | W 76–54 | −11.5 | W+10.5 | 132.0 | U130 | 118.3 | 84.0 | 64.3 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Drake | N | L 63–67 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 138.0 | U130 | 97.8 | 104.0 | 64.4 |
| Mar 1 | Evansville | A | W 81–67 | −9.0 | W+5.0 | 139.5 | O148 | 126.8 | 104.9 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | Indiana St | H | W 66–55 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 93.4 | 77.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 21 | Northern Iowa | A | W 59–57 | +6.5 | W+8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 96.2 | 92.9 | 61.3 |
| Feb 18 | Drake | A | W 66–61 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 150.0 | U127 | 93.5 | 86.4 | 70.6 |
| Feb 15 | Bradley | H | L 60–70 | −2.5 | L−12.5 | 147.0 | U130 | 86.8 | 101.2 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Evansville | H | W 86–60 | −12.0 | W+14.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 126.4 | 88.2 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Indiana St | A | W 80–65 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 147.5 | U145 | 107.2 | 87.1 | 74.7 |
| Feb 6 | Murray St | H | L 81–91 | +1.0 | L−9.0 | 158.0 | O172 | 110.8 | 124.4 | 73.1 |
| Feb 3 | Illinois St | A | W 54–50 | +9.0 | W+13.0 | 141.5 | U104 | 79.5 | 73.6 | 67.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Andrija Bukumirovic 28.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- James Bass no D1 minutes last season
- Lucas Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Will Hopkins no D1 minutes last season
- Charlie King no D1 minutes last season
- Enrique Moya no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Drew Steffe 30.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
- Daniel Pauliukonis no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Walsh no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Dec 10 | 2025-26 | UT Martin 54 – 83 S Illinois |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.