CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteElridge Blake Sports and Fitness Center, Charlotte Amalie, Virgin IslandsU.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam
UT Martin
Efficiency #182
2025-26: 22-11 · 14-8 conf
vs
S Illinois
Efficiency #107
2025-26: 16-16 · 10-11 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 6:30 PM ET
65.8
win 41%
Projected
68.3
win 59%
No line posted yet.
Model: SIU −2.6 · total 134.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: S Illinois 69.4, UT Martin 66.3 → 67.4 possessions
−2.0
S Illinois offense vs UT Martin defense
−4.8
UT Martin offense vs S Illinois defense
−7.3
Projected total
134.1
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
S Illinois offense vs UT Martin defense
−4.8
UT Martin offense vs S Illinois defense
+7.3
S Illinois by 2.6
2.6
UT Martin side ◂▸ S Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +2.5 against +2.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Illinois is the faster team (69.8, #100 of 365) and UT Martin the slower (65.9, #298). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.1
model
Projected team totals
65.8 / 68.3
UT Martin / S Illinois
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.3#328
UT Martin
69.4#91
S Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageS Illinois
Where S Illinois struggles: shooting
S Illinois shoots an effective 49.2% (#286); UT Martin allows 46.1% (#11). Expect about 47.4%, 3.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUT Martin
Where UT Martin struggles: ball control
UT Martin turns it over on 21.4% of possessions (#358); S Illinois forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#75). Expect about 20.5%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversS Illinois
S Illinois turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.0% is worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions against S Illinois's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (S Illinois, UT Martin, S Illinois's defense, UT Martin's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UT Martin at about 46.9% of its shots from three, S Illinois about 31.3%.
DefenseUT Martin
UT Martin's ball-hawking
UT Martin ranks #16 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.5% of S Illinois's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashUT Martin
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
UT Martin (#17 in offensive rebounding) against S Illinois (#44 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.5%. Historically UT Martin's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
UT Martin has the ball
OffenseS Illinois allowsvs D1 avg
48.7% #297
49.0% #70
-3.8 pt/100
21.4% #358
18.5% #75
-4.6 pt/100
37.0% #17
27.3% #44
+1.9 pt/100
37.4% #118
31.4% #95
-0.1 pt/100
67.7% #330
—
-0.4 pt/100
UT Martin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.0 pts/100
S Illinois has the ball
OffenseUT Martin allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #286
46.1% #11
-5.5 pt/100
17.0% #207
20.0% #23
-2.7 pt/100
30.9% #167
32.0% #259
+0.7 pt/100
31.3% #275
35.8% #207
-0.2 pt/100
68.3% #321
—
-0.4 pt/100
S Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UT Martinoffense vsS Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
UT Martin shoots
S Illinois allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.3%#18358.1%#14858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.2%#28536.2%#9339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.4%#20742.4%#31538.0%
Three30.3%#33730.4%#1733.7%
S Illinoisoffense vsUT Martindefense
Share of shots by zone
S Illinois shoots
UT Martin allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.7%#16961.1%#27258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.9%#8126.5%#439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5733.8%#4738.0%
Three27.8%#36330.2%#933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UT Martin
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#128 of 365
Off reb %
37.0%
#17
Def reb %
68.0%
#259
Turnover %
21.4%
#358
Forced TO %
20.0%
#23
FT rate
37.4%
#118
FT allowed
35.8%
#207
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−3.2
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2
S Illinois
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#81 of 365
Off reb %
30.9%
#167
Def reb %
72.7%
#44
Turnover %
17.0%
#207
Forced TO %
18.5%
#75
FT rate
31.3%
#275
FT allowed
31.4%
#95
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.0

S Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#81 of 365) to UT Martin’s +1.2 (#128).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UT Martin2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
44Matas DeniusasFFr6'9"33-3325.912.55.21.51.849.7%33.6%4.275.2%31.0%
32Filip PetkovskiGFr6'5"30-2826.35.33.02.61.948.6%29.9%3.255.8%16.6%
33Filip RadakovicGSo6'7"28-2626.39.44.12.62.539.7%17.3%1.981.6%26.8%
4Afan TrnkaGJr6'2"29-1123.96.52.82.41.941.5%28.7%3.767.6%22.0%
9Pedro SantosGFr6'7"31-1218.46.94.10.71.246.9%28.2%2.567.7%27.4%
5Damien KingGFr6'4"29-814.44.62.71.10.746.5%19.6%1.670.7%22.2%
24Vladimir KhryapaFFr6'8"30-313.82.32.50.91.041.0%24.1%1.045.8%16.6%
77Luca ColceagFSr6'8"28-512.93.52.10.70.746.7%29.7%2.657.1%20.0%
11AJ HopkinsFSr6'6"30-110.93.62.00.30.352.2%36.4%2.672.2%19.7%
34Lamine NiangFJr6'9"25-09.13.02.50.40.655.6%—0.050.0%21.8%
7Dragos LunguGSo6'6"6-625.713.85.32.83.565.0%27.3%1.854.5%30.8%
22Ty PriceGFr5'10"17-06.02.60.40.30.545.1%34.4%1.987.5%29.6%
10Ama SowFFr6'9"6-06.72.32.30.20.868.8%100.0%0.250.0%22.0%
6Charlie KingFJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Enrique MoyaGFr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3James BassFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Lucas WilliamsGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Will HopkinsGSo6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UT MartinS Illinois
Efficiency
103.8
105.5
104.3
102.2
66.3
69.4
—
—
Shooting
48.7%
49.2%
51.5%
52.2%
30.3%
27.8%
67.7%
68.3%
37.4%
31.3%
Ball control & glass
21.4%
17.0%
20.0%
18.5%
37.0%
30.9%
32.0%
27.3%
13.1%
9.7%
10.9%
8.5%
Style
47.1%
29.2%
41.9%
52.3%
15.9%
15.8%
56.2%
48.6%
34.7%
33.2%
Roster
1.84
2.83
6'6.2"
6'5.2"
85.9%
84.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UT Martin
Returning minutes: 85.9%Returning production: 79.3%
Lost
  • Andrija Bukumirovic 28.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Boston College
Added
  • James Bass no D1 minutes last season
  • Lucas Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Will Hopkins no D1 minutes last season
  • Charlie King no D1 minutes last season
  • Enrique Moya no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

S Illinois
Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 87.9%
Lost
  • Drew Steffe 30.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Added
  • Daniel Pauliukonis no D1 minutes last season
  • Luke Walsh no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 102025-26UT Martin 54 – 83 S Illinois

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.