Richmond Spiders vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET · Colonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV (neutral site)

Greenbrier Tip-OffNeutral siteNon-conferenceColonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV

Richmond

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #86

Western KY

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #131

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 75.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Western KY is the faster team (76.4, #50 of 365) and Richmond the slower (73.5, #93). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

75.8

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.5#68

Richmond

73.9#37

Western KY

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Western KY has the ball−3.7

Richmond has the ball+7.0

Western KY has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.4% #175 · RICH allows 44.9% #80−2.9

✗Few second chancesOR% 32.1% #171 · RICH allows 26.9% #103−0.9

✓Gets to the lineFTR 46.2% #78 · RICH allows 32.2% #129 · FT 76.7% #78+0.6

✗Coughs it upTO% 13.7% #57 · RICH forces 23.1% #50 · ~14 turnovers−0.5

Richmond has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 64.2% #13 · WKU allows 51.7% #201+9.5

✗Few second chancesOR% 29.5% #223 · WKU allows 26.4% #92−1.8

✗Coughs it upTO% 18.4% #195 · WKU forces 19.6% #118 · ~15 turnovers−0.9

✓Gets to the lineFTR 28.3% #272 · WKU allows 44.0% #259 · FT 73.5% #126+0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Richmondoffense vsWestern KYdefense

Share of shots by zone

Richmond shoots

47.8

6.7

8.9

36.7

Western KY allows

28.6

1.0

11.2

59.2

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	67.4%#78	46.4%#48	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	16.7%#299	0.0%#1	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#245	45.5%#265	34.7%
Three	47.8%#7	38.2%#292	32.5%

Western KYoffense vsRichmonddefense

Share of shots by zone

Western KY shoots

54.7

7.5

11.3

26.4

Richmond allows

36.0

5.3

6.7

52.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.0%#261	59.3%#188	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#165	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	50.0%#45	20.0%#59	34.7%
Three	34.2%#143	22.6%#27	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Richmond

+3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#127 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#223

Def reb %

73.1%

#103

Turnover %

18.4%

#195

Forced TO %

23.1%

#50

FT rate

28.3%

#272

FT allowed

32.2%

#129

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+3.6

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Western KY

+6.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#85 of 365

Off reb %

32.1%

#171

Def reb %

73.6%

#92

Turnover %

13.7%

#57

Forced TO %

19.6%

#118

FT rate

46.2%

#78

FT allowed

44.0%

#259

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security+3.2

Forcing turnovers+1.1

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed−1.6

Western KY has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.9 (#85 of 365) to Richmond’s +3.5 (#127).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Richmond2026-27 numbers · last game: Temple, Nov 8

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	G	So	6'0"	3-3	27.0	32	—	Started last	10.0	2.3	3.3	1.0	61.8%	55.6%	3.0	69.2%	17.8%
13	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	26.3	31	—	Started last	9.3	7.3	7.0	0.7	59.1%	44.4%	3.0	40.0%	18.4%
7	F	Sr	6'6"	3-3	26.3	33	—	Started last	15.7	5.3	0.7	1.0	75.0%	64.3%	4.7	50.0%	24.4%
21	C	So	6'11"	3-3	21.7	17	—	Started last	9.7	3.3	5.3	2.3	71.1%	50.0%	0.7	66.7%	23.1%
1	G	Jr	6'5"	3-3	21.3	16	—	Started last	17.0	4.0	2.0	1.3	80.8%	66.7%	3.0	90.0%	29.6%
4	F	Sr	6'9"	3-0	18.7	26	—	Bench	11.7	4.3	0.3	0.3	78.6%	42.9%	2.3	100.0%	22.6%
5	G	Sr	6'6"	3-0	15.7	8	—	Bench	6.7	3.7	0.3	1.7	55.6%	0.0%	1.0	—	26.9%
11	G	So	6'5"	3-0	14.7	12	—	Bench	6.0	2.3	1.3	1.0	52.9%	50.0%	2.7	—	25.1%
0	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	14.0	18	—	Bench	4.7	0.0	3.0	1.0	41.7%	0.0%	1.0	80.0%	22.8%
2	G	Fr	5'9"	2-0	6.5	8	—	Bench	1.5	0.5	1.0	0.5	50.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	17.5%
8	G	So	6'6"	2-0	6.0	—	—	Active	3.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	70.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	27.6%
16	C	So	6'11"	2-0	5.0	0	—	Bench	0.0	1.5	0.5	0.5	—	—	0.0	—	5.6%
15	G	Jr	6'3"	2-0	4.0	—	—	Active	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	33.9%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Richmond

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +16.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +2.8

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	TempleAdjEM #217	N	W 79–53	−1.5	W+24.5	151.0	U132	113.5	76.2	69.6
Nov 5	Southern Virginia Knights	H	W 107–46	—	—	—	—	149.1	64.1	71.8
Nov 2	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #261	H	W 100–77	−15.5	W+7.5	152.5	O177	129.0	99.3	77.5
Mar 11	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #181	N	L 67–75	−4.5	L−12.5	141.5	O142	107.2	120.0	62.5
Mar 7	DuquesneAdjEM #138	A	L 77–79	+4.5	W+2.5	148.0	O156	116.8	119.9	65.9
Mar 3	DaytonAdjEM #99	H	L 60–65	+5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	97.0	105.1	61.8
Feb 28	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #181	A	L 66–69	−2.5	L−5.5	146.5	U135	91.7	95.9	72.0
Feb 21	St BonaventureAdjEM #118	H	W 99–94	−1.0	W+4.0	148.5	O193	134.8	128.0	73.4
Feb 18	DavidsonAdjEM #97	A	L 63–65	+5.0	W+3.0	140.5	U128	98.8	101.9	63.8
Feb 14	VCUAdjEM #67	H	L 67–78	+8.5	L−2.5	156.0	U145	95.9	111.6	69.9

Western KY

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +0.8

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +7.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	Tennessee TechAdjEM #265	A	L 94–97	−3.0	L−6.0	164.0	O191	111.3	114.9	84.5
Nov 5	Kentucky Wesleyan Panthers	H	W 82–48	—	—	—	—	116.5	68.2	70.4
Nov 2	Morehead StAdjEM #336	H	W 83–58	−17.5	W+7.5	153.0	U141	121.3	84.8	68.4
Mar 12	Kennesaw StAdjEM #153	N	L 87–96	−1.0	L−10.0	159.5	O183	113.0	124.6	77.0
Mar 7	FIUAdjEM #191	A	L 67–92	−1.0	L−26.0	160.0	U159	91.5	125.7	73.2
Mar 5	Missouri StAdjEM #188	A	L 74–87	−1.0	L−14.0	152.5	O161	111.3	130.9	66.5
Feb 28	UTEPAdjEM #243	H	W 97–65	−9.0	W+23.0	146.5	O162	134.7	90.2	72.0
Feb 26	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	H	W 93–70	−5.5	W+17.5	151.5	O163	117.8	88.7	78.9
Feb 21	LibertyAdjEM #145	A	W 94–73	+7.5	W+28.5	149.0	O167	135.5	105.3	69.3
Feb 18	DelawareAdjEM #258	A	W 88–87 OT	−4.0	L−3.0	139.5	O175	126.7	125.3	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

RichmondWestern KY

Efficiency

110.2

106.6

102.8

104.3

72.5

73.9

-4.8

-9.7

Shooting

64.2%

50.4%

59.5%

50.0%

47.8%

34.2%

73.5%

76.7%

28.3%

46.2%

Ball control & glass

18.4%

13.7%

23.1%

19.6%

29.5%

32.1%

26.9%

26.4%

11.6%

5.2%

10.8%

8.7%

Style

38.3%

29.2%

48.0%

45.2%

16.8%

16.9%

75.8%

47.5%

38.7%

42.3%

Roster

2.90

2.68

6'5.7"

6'5.5"

22.1%

34.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Richmond

Returning minutes: 22.1%Returning production: 21.9%

Lost

Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
AJ Lopez 25.8 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Michael Walz 21.2 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Charlotte
Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Jaden Daughtry 15.2 mpg, 8.6 ppg · transferred to Stony Brook
David Thomas 13.6 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to Georgia St

Added

Amon Dorries from Bucknell · 32.5 mpg, 16.2 ppg last season
Derin Saran from UC Irvine · 29.7 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
Jamie Kaiser Jr. from Butler · 27.2 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
Dominick Stewart from Penn State · 22.5 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
Andrew Ball from Monmouth · 20.5 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
Jack McCaffery from Butler · 2.7 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season

Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Western KY

Returning minutes: 38.0%Returning production: 44.4%

Lost

Grant Newell 25.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ryan Myers 22.5 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Terrion Murdix 17.9 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Blaise Keita 12.5 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cam Haffner 11.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Oral Roberts
Leeroy Odiahi 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Noah Norgaard from UNC Greensboro · 25.1 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Emondrek Erkins-Ford from Jax State · 21.5 mpg, 8.3 ppg last season
Sharron Young from Akron · 18.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
EJ Walker from South Carolina · 10.9 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
Joseph Adebayo no D1 minutes last season
Moussa Konare no D1 minutes last season

Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 20

Temple vs MTSU · 12:30 PM ET
Oklahoma St vs Minnesota · 12:30 PM ET
G Washington vs UAB · 2:00 PM ET
Indiana St vs SF Austin · 3:00 PM ET
W Illinois vs UAlbany · 3:00 PM ET
Northwestern vs Virginia Tech · 3:00 PM ET
S Dakota St at Idaho St · 4:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
Manhattan at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
UT Martin vs S Illinois · 5:30 PM ET
Mercyhurst at Canisius · 5:30 PM ET
Dayton vs Utah · 5:30 PM ET
Delaware at CSU Northridge · 6:00 PM ET
North Texas at App State · 6:30 PM ET
Coastal at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
C Michigan at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
Wagner at Maryland · 7:00 PM ET
Saint Joseph's at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
Harvard at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
Loyola MD at Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
W Michigan at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
Kansas City at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
Bellarmine at E Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
Niagara at Delaware St · 7:00 PM ET
SC State at The Citadel · 7:00 PM ET
Oakland at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
Georgia St at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
Iowa at Xavier · 7:30 PM ET
UT Arlington at N'Western St · 7:30 PM ET
Mississippi St vs Tulsa · 7:30 PM ET
Georgia at Georgia Tech · 8:00 PM ET
Green Bay at Florida St · 8:00 PM ET
Campbell at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
Utah Valley vs East Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
Kentucky vs Indiana · 8:00 PM ET
Le Moyne at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
Lipscomb at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
UCF at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
Miss Valley St at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
South Alabama at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
Marshall at North Carolina · 9:00 PM ET
E Illinois at Illinois · 9:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
Sam Houston at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at Fresno St · 10:00 PM ET
Saint Louis at Saint Mary's · 11:00 PM ET

← Thu, Nov 19 · Sat, Nov 21 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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