CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceXFINITY Center, College Park, MD

Wagner

Efficiency #285

2025-26: 14-17 · 9-11 conf

Maryland

Efficiency #198

2025-26: 12-21 · 5-17 conf

Fri, Nov 20 · TBD

68.4

win 27%

Projected

75.6

win 73%

No line posted yet.

Model: MD −7.2 · total 144.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Maryland 67.7, Wagner 67.0 → 66.4 possessions

−4.2

Maryland offense vs Wagner defense

+1.7

Wagner offense vs Maryland defense

−1.7

Projected total

144.0

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Maryland offense vs Wagner defense

+1.7

Wagner offense vs Maryland defense

+1.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Maryland by 7.2

7.2

Wagner side ◂▸ Maryland side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Maryland.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Maryland is the faster team (66.7, #257 of 365) and Wagner the slower (65.3, #323). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.0

model

Projected team totals

68.4 / 75.6

Wagner / Maryland

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#285

Wagner

67.7#239

Maryland

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Maryland averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Wagner 65.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMaryland

Where Maryland struggles: shooting

Maryland shoots an effective 48.1% (#311); Wagner allows 50.4% (#123). Expect about 49.0%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Wagner, Maryland's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wagner at about 39.0% of its shots from three, Maryland about 43.0%.

ClashMaryland

Style clash: 3-point volume

Maryland takes 46.9% of its shots from three; Wagner runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 43.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashWagner

Style clash: 3-point volume

Wagner rarely shoots threes (36.1% of its shots); Maryland lets opponents take 43.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Wagner has the ball

OffenseMaryland allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #262

54.4% #312

+0.9 pt/100

18.5% #301

14.9% #296

+0.2 pt/100

32.8% #96

29.1% #111

+0.6 pt/100

32.3% #252

35.8% #205

-0.1 pt/100

72.6% #184

—

+0.0 pt/100

Wagner net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Maryland has the ball

OffenseWagner allowsvs D1 avg

48.1% #311

50.4% #123

-3.2 pt/100

18.6% #304

14.9% #294

+0.2 pt/100

33.8% #73

29.6% #139

+1.2 pt/100

36.4% #142

40.8% #309

+0.5 pt/100

72.2% #202

—

-0.0 pt/100

Maryland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Wagneroffense vsMarylanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Wagner shoots

40.3

7.6

16.3

35.8

Maryland allows

37.3

4.4

14.6

43.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.3%#359	59.6%#211	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.0%#64	31.9%#22	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#109	41.3%#283	38.0%
Three	36.6%#36	36.3%#317	33.7%

Marylandoffense vsWagnerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Maryland shoots

32.6

5.0

15.9

46.5

Wagner allows

41.2

6.9

15.7

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.8%#279	53.5%#31	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#328	46.5%#326	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#129	37.5%#141	38.0%
Three	31.7%#293	34.3%#202	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Wagner

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#312 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#96

Def reb %

70.4%

#139

Turnover %

18.5%

#301

Forced TO %

14.9%

#294

FT rate

32.3%

#252

FT allowed

40.8%

#309

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed−1.4

Maryland

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#204 of 365

Off reb %

33.8%

#73

Def reb %

70.9%

#111

Turnover %

18.6%

#304

Forced TO %

14.9%

#296

FT rate

36.4%

#142

FT allowed

35.8%

#205

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+0.3

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Maryland has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#204 of 365) to Wagner’s −3.4 (#312).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Maryland2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
13	Elijah Saunders	F	Sr	6'8"	33-32	30.7	9.0	4.4	0.9	1.1	56.4%	41.1%	4.3	80.0%	17.2%
7	Andre Mills	G	Fr	6'4"	33-25	26.7	12.2	4.1	1.6	1.7	49.2%	34.6%	4.8	76.7%	29.7%
8	David Coit	G	Sr	5'11"	33-16	26.7	13.5	1.8	2.8	1.8	51.0%	32.4%	6.6	85.6%	31.4%
1	Darius Adams	G	Fr	6'5"	33-28	25.6	10.8	3.4	1.6	2.0	40.6%	24.8%	4.0	71.4%	31.5%
12	Isaiah Watts	G	Jr	6'3"	32-8	17.0	4.3	1.8	0.7	0.8	44.5%	29.3%	3.1	64.3%	18.8%
45	Collin Metcalf	C	Sr	6'9"	31-13	13.5	1.3	3.2	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.0	38.5%	8.2%
2	Myles Rice	G	Jr	6'3"	17-4	16.5	5.6	2.1	1.3	1.4	43.3%	34.4%	1.9	92.6%	24.4%
21	Pharrel Payne	F	Sr	6'9"	10-10	26.8	17.5	7.2	1.4	2.7	62.4%	—	0.0	71.9%	32.8%
11	George Turkson Jr.	G	Fr	6'7"	23-5	11.4	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	10.3%
18	Guillermo Del Pino	G	Fr	6'5"	23-2	9.3	1.6	0.7	0.5	0.6	37.0%	27.6%	1.3	50.0%	17.5%
24	Aleks Alston	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	8.4	1.4	1.7	0.3	0.4	40.3%	20.8%	1.0	55.6%	13.8%
15	Jaziah Harper	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
30	Lukas Sotell	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Nick Blake	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Rakease Passmore	G	So	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Wagner

Against the spread

Season

15-12-1

Home

4-5-1

Road

11-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-13

Home

5-5

Road

10-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.9

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 56–64	+6.5	L−1.5	139.0	U120	87.6	100.1	63.9
Mar 4	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	W 70–60	+3.5	W+13.5	138.5	U130	114.0	97.7	61.4
Feb 28	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 80–61	−5.0	W+14.0	135.5	O141	116.2	88.6	68.9
Feb 26	New HavenAdjEM #326	H	W 65–62	−2.0	W+1.0	131.5	U127	104.3	99.5	62.3
Feb 21	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 65–56	−1.5	W+7.5	152.0	U121	100.0	86.2	65.0
Feb 19	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	W 83–80 OT	+3.5	W+6.5	134.5	O163	111.4	107.3	74.5
Feb 16	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 65–83	+10.5	L−7.5	137.0	O148	101.9	130.1	63.8
Feb 14	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 68–57	+3.0	W+14.0	129.5	U125	103.2	86.5	65.9
Feb 12	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	L 57–67	+6.5	L−3.5	135.0	U124	81.2	95.5	70.2
Feb 7	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 67–84	+5.0	L−12.0	136.5	O151	102.0	127.9	65.7

Maryland

Against the spread

Season

15-16-2

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +1.9

Covered 3 straightCovered 7 of 9 as an underdogCovered 4 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

18-15

Home

9-6

Road

5-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −6.5

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 64–75	+12.0	W+1.0	134.5	O139	97.4	114.1	65.7
Mar 10	OregonAdjEM #143	N	W 70–60	+4.0	W+14.0	139.0	U130	111.5	95.6	62.8
Mar 8	#11IllinoisAdjEM #4	H	L 72–78	+14.0	W+8.0	145.0	O150	117.6	127.4	61.2
Mar 4	WisconsinAdjEM #28	A	L 45–78	+14.5	L−18.5	153.5	U123	77.9	135.0	57.8
Mar 1	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	L 65–69	−5.0	L−9.0	143.5	U134	92.5	98.2	70.3
Feb 25	#12NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 61–74	+16.5	W+3.5	141.0	U135	95.9	116.4	63.6
Feb 21	WashingtonAdjEM #59	H	W 64–60	+3.0	W+7.0	143.5	U124	112.7	105.7	56.8
Feb 18	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	A	L 74–78	+8.0	W+4.0	142.5	O152	112.2	118.3	65.9
Feb 15	RutgersAdjEM #192	A	L 57–68	+3.0	L−8.0	142.5	U125	88.0	105.0	64.8
Feb 11	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 77–70	+10.0	W+17.0	139.0	O147	123.8	112.6	62.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

WagnerMaryland

Efficiency

105.3

107.9

111.6

109.1

67.0

67.7

—

Shooting

49.6%

48.1%

46.6%

48.6%

36.6%

31.7%

72.6%

72.2%

32.3%

36.4%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

18.6%

14.9%

32.8%

33.8%

29.6%

29.1%

10.7%

9.5%

10.4%

11.6%

Style

36.1%

46.9%

41.6%

34.4%

9.4%

8.7%

48.9%

45.2%

36.5%

31.4%

Roster

2.97

2.61

6'4.4"

6'4.9"

—

87.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Wagner

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Maryland

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.1%

Lost

Solomon Washington 24.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nick Blake no D1 minutes last season
Rakease Passmore no D1 minutes last season
Lukas Sotell no D1 minutes last season
Jaziah Harper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Dec 2	2025-26	Wagner 63 – 89 Maryland

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.