Sam Houston Bearkats vs Boise State Broncos basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 20 · 9:00 PM ET · ExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID
Non-conferenceExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID
Sam Houston
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #123
@
Boise St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #63
Fri, Nov 20 · 9:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 75.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Boise St is the faster team (83.8, #3 of 365) and Sam Houston the slower (80.8, #13). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
75.7
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
73.4#48
Sam Houston
72.9#58
Boise St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Boise St has the ball+10.8
Sam Houston has the ball−10.9
Boise St has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 11.9% #22 · SHSU forces 12.4% #325 · ~8 turnovers+6.8
✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.3% #81 · SHSU allows 54.7% #253+6.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 21.5% #334 · SHSU allows 25.3% #51 · FT 64.7% #258−1.7
✗Few second chancesOR% 31.1% #189 · SHSU allows 30.2% #164−0.4
Sam Houston has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 28.5% #350 · BOIS forces 17.9% #186 · ~18 turnovers−5.2
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · BOIS allows 44.6% #73−3.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 24.6% #312 · BOIS allows 21.6% #29 · FT 56.3% #334−2.4
✓Wins second chancesOR% 34.1% #123 · BOIS allows 27.9% #1220.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootSam Houstonoffense vsBoise Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Sam Houston shoots
31.6
7.9
10.5
50.0
Boise St allows
41.3
10.9
0.0
47.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 25.0%#357 | 63.2%#244 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 20.0%#54 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | — | 34.7% |
| Three | 45.5%#16 | 22.2%#23 | 32.5% |
Boise Stoffense vsSam Houstondefense
Share of shots by zone
Boise St shoots
41.2
11.8
2.0
45.1
Sam Houston allows
33.3
10.4
14.6
41.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 42.9%#324 | 75.0%#340 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#299 | 20.0%#54 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 42.9%#240 | 34.7% |
| Three | 48.6%#5 | 32.3%#173 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineSam Houston
−10.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#313 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#123
Def reb %
69.8%
#164
Turnover %
28.5%
#350
Forced TO %
12.4%
#325
FT rate
24.6%
#312
FT allowed
25.3%
#51
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−7.3
Forcing turnovers−4.0
Foul shots drawn−3.3
Foul shots allowed+3.3
Boise St
+5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#100 of 365
Off reb %
31.1%
#189
Def reb %
72.1%
#122
Turnover %
11.9%
#22
Forced TO %
17.9%
#186
FT rate
21.5%
#334
FT allowed
21.6%
#29
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+4.5
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−4.1
Foul shots allowed+4.3
Boise St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.6 (#100 of 365) to Sam Houston’s −10.0 (#313).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Sam Houston2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 51.9% | 43.8% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 30.5% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 23.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 56.3% | 50.0% | 4.0 | — | 21.7% | Active | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-2 | 23.0 | 14.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 56.8% | 41.7% | 6.0 | 60.0% | 28.0% | Active | |
| 10 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 40.0% | 18.8% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 19.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 61.1% | 50.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 23.7% | Active | |
| 18 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 2-1 | 15.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 15.5% | Active | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 31.8% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 26.7% | Active | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 66.7% | 22.0% | Active | |
| 22 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 56.7% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 38.8% | Active | |
| 32 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 22.9% | Active | |
| 12 | F | So | 7'1" | 1-0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 85.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 28.2% | Active | |
| 25 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 15.8% | Active | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'6" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 33.9% | Active | |
| 13 | G | So | 6'0" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 13.6% | Active | |
| 1 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 26.8% | Active |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesSam Houston
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +5.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −2.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Howard Payne Yellow Jackets | H | W 102–59 | — | — | — | — | 122.3 | 70.7 | 83.4 |
| Nov 3 | #20Alabama | A | L 74–96 | +27.0 | W+5.0 | 172.5 | U170 | 91.6 | 118.8 | 80.8 |
| Mar 18 | New Mexico | A | L 83–107 | +11.5 | L−12.5 | 163.0 | O190 | 109.2 | 140.7 | 76.0 |
| Mar 13 | Kennesaw St | N | L 73–79 | −2.0 | L−8.0 | 159.5 | U152 | 104.8 | 113.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 11 | New Mexico St | N | W 69–61 | −4.5 | W+3.5 | 155.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 85.3 | 71.5 |
| Mar 7 | Liberty | A | L 72–79 | +4.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | U151 | 115.8 | 127.1 | 62.2 |
| Mar 5 | Delaware | A | L 80–83 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 148.0 | O163 | 112.4 | 116.7 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | Missouri St | H | W 86–81 | −7.0 | L−2.0 | 154.5 | O167 | 127.1 | 119.8 | 67.6 |
| Feb 26 | FIU | H | W 100–67 | −6.0 | W+27.0 | 162.0 | O167 | 136.4 | 91.4 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Jax State | H | W 82–78 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 121.6 | 115.7 | 67.4 |
Boise St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +16.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +23.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Butler | H | W 100–81 | −2.5 | W+16.5 | 158.0 | O181 | 119.3 | 96.6 | 83.8 |
| Nov 4 | West Coast Baptist Eagles | H | W 132–53 | — | — | — | — | 149.9 | 60.2 | 88.1 |
| Mar 11 | San José St | N | L 74–84 | −14.5 | L−24.5 | 146.0 | O158 | 106.0 | 120.3 | 69.8 |
| Mar 7 | Colorado St | A | W 78–67 | −1.5 | W+9.5 | 144.0 | O145 | 127.3 | 109.4 | 61.3 |
| Mar 3 | San Diego St | H | W 86–77 | −1.0 | W+8.0 | 145.0 | O163 | 126.3 | 113.1 | 68.1 |
| Feb 28 | Fresno St | A | W 69–53 | −7.0 | W+9.0 | 149.0 | U122 | 114.9 | 88.3 | 60.0 |
| Feb 24 | Wyoming | H | W 72–62 | −8.5 | W+1.5 | 146.0 | U134 | 113.1 | 97.4 | 63.7 |
| Feb 21 | San José St | H | W 84–69 | −17.5 | L−2.5 | 146.0 | O153 | 127.9 | 105.0 | 65.7 |
| Feb 18 | Utah State | A | L 56–75 | +9.5 | L−9.5 | 152.5 | U131 | 93.0 | 124.5 | 60.2 |
| Feb 13 | UNLV | H | L 83–86 OT | −10.0 | L−13.0 | 154.0 | O169 | 119.3 | 123.7 | 69.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSam HoustonBoise St
Efficiency
108.0
111.8
105.0
101.7
73.4
72.9
19.9
8.3
Shooting
50.0%
56.3%
31.3%
43.2%
45.5%
48.6%
56.3%
64.7%
24.6%
21.5%
Ball control & glass
28.5%
11.9%
12.4%
17.9%
34.1%
31.1%
30.2%
27.9%
21.0%
4.8%
31.3%
4.5%
Style
50.8%
44.3%
24.3%
36.0%
14.9%
11.0%
68.0%
61.1%
46.3%
40.2%
Roster
2.49
2.97
6'4.7"
6'5.6"
23.6%
27.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSam Houston
Returning minutes: 23.6%Returning production: 20.2%
Lost
- Damon Nicholas Jr. 27.1 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kashie Natt 26.4 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma St
- Jacob Walker 25.8 mpg, 11.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma St
- Po'Boigh King 25.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Veljko Ilic 24.3 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Manning 9.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to W Carolina
Added
- Enel St. Bernard from Indiana St · 17.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Riccardo Greppi from Wisconsin · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Keller Partain no D1 minutes last season
- Rylan Kelly no D1 minutes last season
- Alec Loustau no D1 minutes last season
- Xavier Roberson no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Boise St
Returning minutes: 27.5%Returning production: 20.6%
Lost
- Andrew Meadow 30.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oregon
- Dylan Andrews 29.3 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Javan Buchanan 27.0 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to West Virginia
- Drew Fielder 23.7 mpg, 14.7 ppg · transferred to Alabama
- R.J. Keene II 21.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to NC State
- Dominic Parolin 17.0 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Dovydas Butka from Campbell · 30.9 mpg, 12.7 ppg last season
- Damari Wheeler-Thomas from N Dakota St · 27.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg last season
- Lamar Washington from Georgia Tech · 26.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Jerquarius Stanback from Alabama St · 24.6 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season
- Jikany Deang no D1 minutes last season
Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 20
- Temple vs MTSU · 12:30 PM ET
- Oklahoma St vs Minnesota · 12:30 PM ET
- G Washington vs UAB · 2:00 PM ET
- Indiana St vs SF Austin · 3:00 PM ET
- W Illinois vs UAlbany · 3:00 PM ET
- Northwestern vs Virginia Tech · 3:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St at Idaho St · 4:00 PM ET
- Rhode Island vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
- Manhattan at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- UT Martin vs S Illinois · 5:30 PM ET
- Mercyhurst at Canisius · 5:30 PM ET
- Dayton vs Utah · 5:30 PM ET
- Delaware at CSU Northridge · 6:00 PM ET
- North Texas at App State · 6:30 PM ET
- Coastal at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- C Michigan at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- Wagner at Maryland · 7:00 PM ET
- Saint Joseph's at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Loyola MD at Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
- W Michigan at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
- Kansas City at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at E Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Monmouth at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- Niagara at Delaware St · 7:00 PM ET
- SC State at The Citadel · 7:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Richmond vs Western KY · 7:00 PM ET
- Iowa at Xavier · 7:30 PM ET
- UT Arlington at N'Western St · 7:30 PM ET
- Mississippi St vs Tulsa · 7:30 PM ET
- Georgia at Georgia Tech · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Florida St · 8:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Utah Valley vs East Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
- Kentucky vs Indiana · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
- UCF at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Marshall at North Carolina · 9:00 PM ET
- E Illinois at Illinois · 9:00 PM ET
- Bakersfield at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Alabama St at Fresno St · 10:00 PM ET
- Saint Louis at Saint Mary's · 11:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.