CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteTD Arena, Charleston, SCCharleston Classic
Oklahoma St
Efficiency #89
2025-26: 20-15 · 7-13 conf
vs
Minnesota
Efficiency #94
2025-26: 15-18 · 8-13 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 12:30 PM ET
75.3
win 50%
Projected
75.2
win 50%
No line posted yet.
Model: OKST −0.1 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Minnesota 65.1, Oklahoma St 71.7 → 68.5 possessions
+0.3
Minnesota offense vs Oklahoma St defense
+1.0
Oklahoma St offense vs Minnesota defense
+1.1
Projected total
150.6
Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Minnesota offense vs Oklahoma St defense
+1.0
Oklahoma St offense vs Minnesota defense
−1.1
Oklahoma St by 0.1
0.1
Oklahoma St side ◂▸ Minnesota side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Minnesota.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oklahoma St is the faster team (74.0, #6 of 365) and Minnesota the slower (62.9, #364). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.6
model
Projected team totals
75.3 / 75.2
Oklahoma St / Minnesota
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.7#8
Oklahoma St
65.1#362
Minnesota
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
Minnesota averages 62.9 possessions per 40, Oklahoma St 74.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMinnesota
Where Minnesota scores: shooting
Minnesota shoots an effective 53.9% (#69); Oklahoma St allows 53.1% (#272). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMinnesota
Style match: 3-point volume
Minnesota takes 47.1% of its shots from three; Oklahoma St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.9% — both habits push the same way.
GlassMinnesota
Minnesota gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Minnesota's offense.
Oklahoma St has the ball
OffenseMinnesota allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #144
51.9% #207
+1.0 pt/100
15.8% #120
16.9% #162
+0.6 pt/100
30.8% #169
29.5% #137
-0.1 pt/100
39.4% #70
26.9% #21
-0.3 pt/100
74.5% #102
—
+0.2 pt/100
Oklahoma St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100
Minnesota has the ball
OffenseOklahoma St allowsvs D1 avg
53.9% #69
53.1% #272
+3.4 pt/100
16.5% #167
15.6% #243
+1.1 pt/100
26.8% #304
30.4% #178
-1.6 pt/100
35.8% #159
31.5% #96
-0.2 pt/100
69.4% #286
—
-0.3 pt/100
Minnesota net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersOklahoma Stoffense vsMinnesotadefense
Share of shots by zone
Oklahoma St shoots
48.2
4.5
12.5
34.7
Minnesota allows
32.6
6.5
19.6
41.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#180 | 60.9%#268 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.4%#295 | 48.6%#345 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.5%#248 | 37.6%#150 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#176 | 34.7%#229 | 33.7% |
Minnesotaoffense vsOklahoma Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Minnesota shoots
34.7
4.9
12.5
47.9
Oklahoma St allows
40.1
5.1
12.4
42.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.5%#45 | 57.2%#120 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.7%#69 | 48.5%#344 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.5%#202 | 36.9%#129 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#164 | 36.0%#304 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersOklahoma St
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#169
Def reb %
69.6%
#178
Turnover %
15.8%
#120
Forced TO %
15.6%
#243
FT rate
39.4%
#70
FT allowed
31.5%
#96
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Minnesota
+1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#111 of 365
Off reb %
26.8%
#304
Def reb %
70.5%
#137
Turnover %
16.5%
#167
Forced TO %
16.9%
#162
FT rate
35.8%
#159
FT allowed
26.9%
#21
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Oklahoma St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#87 of 365) to Minnesota’s +1.8 (#111).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Oklahoma St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanye Clary | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-31 | 28.2 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 46.2% | 35.5% | 3.6 | 80.7% | 23.4% | |
| 9 | Anthony Roy | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-25 | 28.7 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 55.5% | 39.0% | 7.5 | 85.7% | 29.4% | |
| 4 | Christian Coleman | G | Sr | 6'8" | 34-26 | 25.3 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 53.7% | 27.1% | 1.7 | 66.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Vyctorius Miller | G | So | 6'5" | 32-26 | 25.5 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 50.8% | 37.5% | 3.8 | 85.7% | 23.1% | |
| 0 | Jaylen Curry | G | Jr | 6'1" | 33-7 | 23.8 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 46.3% | 31.6% | 2.4 | 80.6% | 25.1% | |
| 22 | Parsa Fallah | F | Sr | 6'10" | 26-26 | 26.4 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 62.3% | 40.0% | 1.2 | 68.0% | 26.1% | |
| 21 | Isaiah Coleman | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-5 | 19.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 8.0% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 20.7% | |
| 19 | Andrija Vukovic | F | So | 6'11" | 27-3 | 15.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 62.8% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 69.0% | 16.7% | |
| 24 | Ryan Crotty | G | Fr | 6'6" | 28-10 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 29.6% | 1.9 | 75.0% | 14.8% | |
| 23 | Benjamin Ahmed | C | Fr | 6'10" | 21-7 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 55.4% | — | 0.0 | 56.6% | 22.4% | |
| 72 | Lefteris Mantzoukas | F | Fr | 6'9" | 12-6 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 44.6% | 24.2% | 2.8 | 60.0% | 17.0% | |
| 8 | Daniel Guetta | G | Fr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 52.8% | 14.3% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 16.0% | |
| 13 | Mekhi Ragland | F | Fr | 6'11" | 14-0 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 34.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 7 | Kirk Cole | G | Sr | 6'1" | 12-0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 46.2% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 13.2% | |
| 25 | Robert Jennings II | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 18.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Minnesota2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cade Tyson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 36.7 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 59.3% | 41.3% | 5.4 | 82.2% | 29.1% | |
| 1 | Isaac Asuma | G | So | 6'3" | 33-33 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 48.9% | 30.4% | 5.8 | 74.2% | 23.8% | |
| 6 | Langston Reynolds | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-26 | 33.2 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 55.9% | 25.6% | 1.3 | 59.2% | 24.5% | |
| 3 | Bobby Durkin | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-25 | 32.8 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 58.8% | 39.2% | 6.2 | 87.5% | 17.9% | |
| 5 | Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 24-24 | 31.5 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 49.3% | 32.3% | 5.4 | 71.8% | 28.9% | |
| 2 | Grayson Grove | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-12 | 20.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 62.0% | 26.3% | 0.6 | 25.0% | 12.6% | |
| 9 | Kai Shinholster | G | Fr | 6'5" | 31-0 | 13.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 37.5% | 22.5% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 13.1% | |
| 0 | Chansey Willis Jr. | G | Jr | 6'2" | 7-7 | 26.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 43.6% | 18.2% | 1.6 | 45.5% | 21.6% | |
| 22 | Robert Vaihola | F | Sr | 6'8" | 5-5 | 21.4 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 70.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 14.6% | |
| 4 | Nehemiah Turner | F | So | 6'10" | 7-1 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 18.8% | |
| 11 | Maximus Gizzi | G | Sr | 6'1" | 10-0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 10.3% | |
| 12 | RJ Spencer | G | Sr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 23.7% | |
| 20 | BJ Omot | F | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Chance Stephens | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Max Lorenson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Oklahoma St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kanye Clary | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-31 | 28.2 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 46.2% | 35.5% | 3.6 | 80.7% | 23.4% | |
| 9 | Anthony Roy | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-25 | 28.7 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 55.5% | 39.0% | 7.5 | 85.7% | 29.4% | |
| 4 | Christian Coleman | G | Sr | 6'8" | 34-26 | 25.3 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 53.7% | 27.1% | 1.7 | 66.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Vyctorius Miller | G | So | 6'5" | 32-26 | 25.5 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 50.8% | 37.5% | 3.8 | 85.7% | 23.1% | |
| 0 | Jaylen Curry | G | Jr | 6'1" | 33-7 | 23.8 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 46.3% | 31.6% | 2.4 | 80.6% | 25.1% | |
| 22 | Parsa Fallah | F | Sr | 6'10" | 26-26 | 26.4 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 62.3% | 40.0% | 1.2 | 68.0% | 26.1% | |
| 21 | Isaiah Coleman | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-5 | 19.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 8.0% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 20.7% | |
| 19 | Andrija Vukovic | F | So | 6'11" | 27-3 | 15.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 62.8% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 69.0% | 16.7% | |
| 24 | Ryan Crotty | G | Fr | 6'6" | 28-10 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 29.6% | 1.9 | 75.0% | 14.8% | |
| 23 | Benjamin Ahmed | C | Fr | 6'10" | 21-7 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 55.4% | — | 0.0 | 56.6% | 22.4% | |
| 72 | Lefteris Mantzoukas | F | Fr | 6'9" | 12-6 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 44.6% | 24.2% | 2.8 | 60.0% | 17.0% | |
| 8 | Daniel Guetta | G | Fr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 52.8% | 14.3% | 0.6 | 60.0% | 16.0% | |
| 13 | Mekhi Ragland | F | Fr | 6'11" | 14-0 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 34.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 7 | Kirk Cole | G | Sr | 6'1" | 12-0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 46.2% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 13.2% | |
| 25 | Robert Jennings II | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 18.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Oklahoma St
Against the spread
Season
15-19-1
Home
8-13
Road
5-5
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −2.0
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
21-14
Home
14-7
Road
4-6
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +11.9
Over 8 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | Wichita St | H | L 70–96 | −2.5 | L−28.5 | 163.0 | O166 | 95.1 | 130.5 | 73.6 |
| Mar 17 | Davidson | H | W 84–80 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 114.6 | 109.2 | 73.3 |
| Mar 11 | TCU | N | L 88–95 | +7.0 | P0.0 | 158.0 | O183 | 127.6 | 137.8 | 69.0 |
| Mar 10 | Colorado | N | W 92–83 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 165.0 | O175 | 125.8 | 113.5 | 73.1 |
| Mar 7 | #7Houston | H | L 75–82 | +13.5 | W+6.5 | 150.5 | O157 | 112.1 | 122.6 | 66.9 |
| Mar 3 | UCF | A | W 111–104 OT | +8.5 | W+15.5 | 168.5 | O215 | 127.3 | 119.3 | 87.2 |
| Feb 28 | Cincinnati | A | L 68–91 | +9.5 | L−13.5 | 152.5 | O159 | 94.7 | 126.7 | 71.8 |
| Feb 24 | West Virginia | H | W 91–84 OT | +1.0 | W+8.0 | 143.5 | O175 | 125.1 | 115.4 | 72.8 |
| Feb 21 | Colorado | A | L 69–83 | +3.5 | L−10.5 | 162.5 | U152 | 95.6 | 114.9 | 72.2 |
| Feb 18 | #8Kansas | H | L 69–81 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 159.5 | U150 | 98.2 | 115.2 | 70.3 |
Minnesota
Against the spread
Season
14-18-1
Home
9-8
Road
5-5-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.3
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-20
Home
6-11
Road
4-7
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −7.5
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 | Baylor | N | L 48–67 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 146.5 | U115 | 80.7 | 112.7 | 59.5 |
| Mar 11 | Rutgers | N | L 67–72 | −6.0 | L−11.0 | 136.0 | O139 | 104.9 | 112.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Northwestern | H | W 67–66 | −4.0 | L−3.0 | 133.5 | U133 | 121.5 | 119.7 | 55.1 |
| Mar 4 | Indiana | A | L 47–77 | +6.5 | L−23.5 | 138.5 | U124 | 76.7 | 125.7 | 61.3 |
| Feb 28 | UCLA | H | W 78–73 | +1.5 | W+6.5 | 135.5 | O151 | 140.4 | 131.4 | 55.6 |
| Feb 24 | #3Michigan | A | L 67–77 | +22.5 | W+12.5 | 146.0 | U144 | 103.7 | 119.2 | 64.6 |
| Feb 21 | Rutgers | H | W 80–61 | −8.5 | W+10.5 | 133.5 | O141 | 136.6 | 104.2 | 58.6 |
| Feb 17 | Oregon | A | W 61–44 | +3.5 | W+20.5 | 134.5 | U105 | 101.9 | 73.5 | 59.9 |
| Feb 14 | Washington | A | L 57–69 | +7.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U126 | 95.1 | 115.1 | 59.9 |
| Feb 8 | Maryland | H | L 62–67 | −10.0 | L−15.0 | 139.0 | U129 | 113.0 | 122.1 | 54.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOklahoma StMinnesota
Efficiency
113.1
109.8
108.6
105.4
71.7
65.1
—
—
Shooting
52.0%
53.9%
52.6%
56.2%
33.9%
34.2%
74.5%
69.4%
39.4%
35.8%
Ball control & glass
15.8%
16.5%
15.6%
16.9%
30.8%
26.8%
30.4%
29.5%
9.1%
8.8%
10.3%
12.2%
Style
35.5%
47.1%
45.9%
41.6%
15.5%
11.1%
50.4%
71.0%
35.8%
16.4%
Roster
2.92
2.87
6'5.4"
6'5.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOklahoma St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Minnesota
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.