Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs Arkansas Razorbacks basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 20 · 8:00 PM ET · Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR

Non-conferenceSECN+Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
Miss Valley St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #363
@
19Arkansas
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #36
Fri, Nov 20 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Arkansas is the faster team (73.0, #110 of 365) and Miss Valley St the slower (67.4, #274). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.6#251
Miss Valley St
72.1#90
Arkansas

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Arkansas has the ball+12.1
Miss Valley St has the ball−8.4
Arkansas has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 45.1% #16 · MVSU allows 46.5% #348+7.3
✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.7% #95 · MVSU allows 55.5% #267+5.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 48.8% #63 · MVSU allows 9.5% #3 · FT 68.3% #209−1.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.8% #173 · MVSU forces 18.5% #150 · ~13 turnovers0.0
Miss Valley St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 40.9% #320 · ARK allows 50.4% #181−5.4
✗Coughs it upTO% 18.5% #200 · ARK forces 22.6% #61 · ~15 turnovers−2.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 25.7% #278 · ARK allows 37.3% #285−0.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 35.5% #194 · ARK allows 31.7% #123 · FT 79.5% #49+0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Miss Valley Stoffense vs#19Arkansasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Miss Valley St shoots
Arkansas allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim65.6%#9562.5%#22958.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)16.7%#29920.0%#5438.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)15.8%#31033.3%#15534.7%
Three25.0%#29934.0%#20732.5%
#19Arkansasoffense vsMiss Valley Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas shoots
Miss Valley St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.8%#17070.4%#30858.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)66.7%#2950.0%#24338.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)23.5%#26625.0%#8534.7%
Three35.1%#12533.3%#18532.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Miss Valley St
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365
Off reb %
25.7%
#278
Def reb %
53.5%
#348
Turnover %
18.5%
#200
Forced TO %
18.5%
#150
FT rate
35.5%
#194
FT allowed
9.5%
#3
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.0
Defensive rebounding−5.0
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed+7.4
#19Arkansas
+10.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#50 of 365
Off reb %
45.1%
#16
Def reb %
62.7%
#285
Turnover %
17.8%
#173
Forced TO %
22.6%
#61
FT rate
48.8%
#63
FT allowed
31.7%
#123
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.5
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers+3.2
Foul shots drawn+3.0
Foul shots allowed+1.6

Arkansas has more extra scoring chances per game: +10.7 (#50 of 365) to Miss Valley St’s +0.1 (#174).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Miss Valley St2026-27 numbers · last game: Washington, Nov 9
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
7FSr6'7"2-235.539—Started last13.08.52.01.541.3%12.5%4.077.8%25.5%
21PFJr6'10"2-232.533—Started last10.04.00.50.550.0%30.0%5.0100.0%17.8%
5GJr6'2"2-127.529—Started last13.03.52.03.047.4%66.7%1.580.0%32.3%
8GSo6'5"2-225.520—Started last3.03.50.52.537.5%0.0%0.5—15.1%
1PGJr5'11"2-125.023—Bench6.50.52.52.037.5%28.6%3.5100.0%24.4%
2GJr6'1"2-124.528—Started last13.54.00.51.556.3%50.0%2.075.0%30.2%
20GSo6'1"2-118.019—Bench0.00.50.00.00.0%0.0%2.5—8.3%
9CFr7'0"2-012.08—Bench1.51.00.01.50.0%0.0%1.075.0%26.8%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Miss Valley St#19Arkansas
Efficiency
92.8
118.4
114.2
103.4
69.6
72.1
6.2
1.7
Shooting
40.9%
55.7%
42.9%
57.0%
25.0%
35.1%
79.5%
68.3%
35.5%
48.8%
Ball control & glass
18.5%
17.8%
18.5%
22.6%
25.7%
45.1%
46.5%
37.3%
13.3%
11.6%
8.6%
8.1%
Style
36.4%
30.1%
44.6%
51.7%
12.4%
32.6%
40.0%
46.8%
27.7%
42.0%
Roster
2.84
1.80
6'4.6"
6'6.6"
0.0%
13.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Miss Valley St
Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 2.9%
Lost
  • Mike James 35.6 mpg, 20.8 ppg · transferred to Alabama St
  • Patrick Punch 27.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Daniel Mayfield 25.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • X'Zaevion Barnett 23.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mussa Mzein 17.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamont Sams 15.4 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Tarique Foster from UAlbany · 14.0 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
  • Tory James Jr. from Bakersfield · 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
  • Caleb Cameron no D1 minutes last season
  • Matt Anglo no D1 minutes last season
  • Qingfang Pang no D1 minutes last season
  • Gabriel Martinez no D1 minutes last season

Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

#19Arkansas
Returning minutes: 15.7%Returning production: 15.1%
Lost
  • Darius Acuff Jr. 34.3 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Trevon Brazile 30.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Meleek Thomas 30.5 mpg, 15.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • DJ Wagner 22.3 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Maryland
  • Malique Ewin 21.0 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nick Pringle 17.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jeremiah Wilkinson from Georgia · 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg last season
  • Cooper Bowser from Furman · 21.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
  • Davion Thompson no D1 minutes last season
  • Abdou Toure no D1 minutes last season
  • Jordan Smith Jr. no D1 minutes last season
  • Caleb Ourigou no D1 minutes last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 20

← Thu, Nov 19 · Sat, Nov 21 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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