CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteTD Arena, Charleston, SCCharleston Classic
Dayton
Efficiency #62
2025-26: 25-12 · 14-7 conf
vs
Utah
Efficiency #177
2025-26: 10-22 · 2-17 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 5:30 PM ET
75.5
win 68%
Projected
70.2
win 32%
No line posted yet.
Model: DAY −5.3 · total 145.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Utah 67.6, Dayton 67.8 → 67.2 possessions
−2.5
Utah offense vs Dayton defense
−2.7
Dayton offense vs Utah defense
+2.6
Projected total
145.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Utah offense vs Dayton defense
−2.7
Dayton offense vs Utah defense
−2.6
Dayton by 5.3
5.3
Dayton side ◂▸ Utah side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.6 against a projected 145.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Utah.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Utah is the faster team (68.0, #198 of 365) and Dayton the slower (67.6, #216). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.7
model
Projected team totals
75.5 / 70.2
Dayton / Utah
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.8#222
Dayton
67.6#243
Utah
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUtah
Where Utah struggles: ball control
Utah turns it over on 16.7% of possessions (#179); Dayton forces turnovers on 21.0% of opponent possessions (#11). Expect about 19.4%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageDayton
Where Dayton scores: ball control
Dayton turns it over on 16.9% of possessions (#195); Utah forces turnovers on 13.3% of opponent possessions (#348). Expect about 14.6%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseDayton
Dayton's ball-hawking
Dayton ranks #23 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.8% of Utah's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashDayton
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
Dayton (#2 in free-throw rate) against Utah (#57 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 37.5%. Historically Utah's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
Dayton has the ball
OffenseUtah allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #168
53.9% #298
+2.2 pt/100
16.9% #195
13.3% #348
+2.6 pt/100
26.9% #298
31.6% #233
-1.1 pt/100
46.2% #2
29.9% #57
+0.3 pt/100
75.4% #71
—
+0.3 pt/100
Dayton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100
Utah has the ball
OffenseDayton allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #142
51.0% #164
+0.5 pt/100
16.7% #179
21.0% #11
-3.3 pt/100
29.3% #224
28.8% #94
-0.9 pt/100
31.7% #262
35.5% #194
-0.2 pt/100
73.8% #143
—
+0.1 pt/100
Utah net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersDaytonoffense vsUtahdefense
Share of shots by zone
Dayton shoots
42.8
6.3
9.8
41.1
Utah allows
42.3
7.7
16.7
33.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.8%#122 | 60.1%#233 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 27.4%#360 | 53.3%#361 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#326 | 40.3%#254 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#182 | 35.1%#254 | 33.7% |
Utahoffense vsDaytondefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah shoots
39.2
6.9
16.0
37.9
Dayton allows
37.3
9.9
12.5
40.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#230 | 57.9%#143 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#231 | 34.8%#54 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#88 | 37.1%#134 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.3%#97 | 35.4%#270 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersDayton
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#19 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#298
Def reb %
71.2%
#94
Turnover %
16.9%
#195
Forced TO %
21.0%
#11
FT rate
46.2%
#2
FT allowed
35.5%
#194
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+2.9
Foul shots drawn+2.9
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Utah
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#283 of 365
Off reb %
29.3%
#224
Def reb %
68.4%
#233
Turnover %
16.7%
#179
Forced TO %
13.3%
#348
FT rate
31.7%
#262
FT allowed
29.9%
#57
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−2.3
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Dayton has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#19 of 365) to Utah’s −2.4 (#283).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Dayton2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Javon Bennett | G | Sr | 5'10" | 37-37 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 49.0% | 34.7% | 7.0 | 89.8% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Keonte Jones | G | Sr | 6'6" | 37-37 | 30.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 53.9% | 31.7% | 1.1 | 63.1% | 16.1% | |
| 29 | Amael L'Etang | F | So | 7'1" | 33-31 | 25.5 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 2.9 | 76.5% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Jordan Derkack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 27.6% | 1.8 | 72.2% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Bryce Heard | G | So | 6'6" | 36-6 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 36.6% | 2.0 | 79.1% | 20.5% | |
| 3 | Jaiun Simon | F | So | 6'6" | 36-16 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.7% | 40.0% | 1.0 | 80.5% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Jacob Conner | F | Sr | 6'10" | 36-8 | 17.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 29.7% | 1.8 | 63.0% | 12.8% | |
| 1 | Malcolm Thomas | F | Fr | 6'8" | 26-0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 54.8% | 33.3% | 0.7 | 56.8% | 29.2% | |
| 22 | Damon Friery | F | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 44.4% | 35.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 50 | Sean Pouedet | G | Fr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 12.9% | |
| 11 | Evan Dickey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 14.6% | |
| 33 | Makai Grant | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 33.9% | |
| 25 | Will Maxwell | G | Jr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jaron McKie | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Utah2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Don McHenry | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 30.8 | 17.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 53.7% | 38.8% | 6.3 | 83.5% | 29.9% | |
| 8 | Keanu Dawes | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 30.7 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 60.5% | 31.7% | 3.2 | 72.4% | 22.4% | |
| 0 | Seydou Traore | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-31 | 28.7 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 47.0% | 33.3% | 4.2 | 72.7% | 22.3% | |
| 32 | James Okonkwo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-22 | 21.7 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.6% | — | 0.0 | 63.3% | 9.4% | |
| 21 | Obomate Abbey | G | Fr | 6'0" | 31-0 | 15.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 32.6% | 19.5% | 1.3 | 81.0% | 16.8% | |
| 7 | Josh Hayes | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-10 | 13.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 63.8% | — | 0.0 | 60.7% | 11.7% | |
| 6 | Jacob Patrick | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-1 | 20.3 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 66.0% | 46.5% | 4.3 | 50.0% | 16.2% | |
| 11 | Lucas Langarita | G | Fr | 6'5" | 5-0 | 12.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 59.1% | 42.9% | 1.4 | — | 20.2% | |
| 31 | Ibrahima Traore | F | Fr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.3% | |
| 9 | Jerry Huang | G | So | 6'2" | 7-0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.4% | |
| 15 | Alvin Jackson III | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Babacar Faye | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Colin McHaney | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Dayton2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Javon Bennett | G | Sr | 5'10" | 37-37 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 49.0% | 34.7% | 7.0 | 89.8% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Keonte Jones | G | Sr | 6'6" | 37-37 | 30.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 53.9% | 31.7% | 1.1 | 63.1% | 16.1% | |
| 29 | Amael L'Etang | F | So | 7'1" | 33-31 | 25.5 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 2.9 | 76.5% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Jordan Derkack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 27.6% | 1.8 | 72.2% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Bryce Heard | G | So | 6'6" | 36-6 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 36.6% | 2.0 | 79.1% | 20.5% | |
| 3 | Jaiun Simon | F | So | 6'6" | 36-16 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.7% | 40.0% | 1.0 | 80.5% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Jacob Conner | F | Sr | 6'10" | 36-8 | 17.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 29.7% | 1.8 | 63.0% | 12.8% | |
| 1 | Malcolm Thomas | F | Fr | 6'8" | 26-0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 54.8% | 33.3% | 0.7 | 56.8% | 29.2% | |
| 22 | Damon Friery | F | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 44.4% | 35.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 50 | Sean Pouedet | G | Fr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 12.9% | |
| 11 | Evan Dickey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 14.6% | |
| 33 | Makai Grant | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 33.9% | |
| 25 | Will Maxwell | G | Jr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jaron McKie | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Dayton
Against the spread
Season
17-18-2
Home
8-10
Road
6-6-1
Last 10
5-3-2
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 2 pushesCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-24
Home
4-14
Road
6-7
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −11.4
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | Illinois St | H | L 55–61 | −7.0 | L−13.0 | 140.0 | U116 | 87.6 | 97.2 | 62.8 |
| Mar 21 | UNC Wilmington | A | W 80–61 | −3.5 | W+15.5 | 138.5 | O141 | 125.8 | 95.9 | 63.6 |
| Mar 18 | Bradley | A | W 80–66 | −2.5 | W+11.5 | 141.0 | O146 | 133.9 | 110.4 | 59.8 |
| Mar 15 | VCU | N | L 62–70 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 138.5 | U132 | 96.0 | 108.4 | 64.6 |
| Mar 14 | Saint Louis | N | W 70–69 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 145.5 | U139 | 102.3 | 100.8 | 68.4 |
| Mar 13 | St Bonaventure | N | W 68–63 | −5.0 | P0.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 103.3 | 95.7 | 65.8 |
| Mar 6 | VCU | H | L 62–68 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 147.0 | U130 | 102.2 | 112.1 | 60.6 |
| Mar 3 | Richmond | A | W 65–60 | −5.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U125 | 105.1 | 97.0 | 61.8 |
| Feb 27 | G Washington | A | W 68–66 | +2.5 | W+4.5 | 152.0 | U134 | 101.7 | 98.7 | 66.9 |
| Feb 24 | #23Saint Louis | H | W 77–62 | +3.5 | W+18.5 | 157.5 | U139 | 110.9 | 89.3 | 69.4 |
Utah
Against the spread
Season
14-16-2
Home
4-11-2
Road
8-3
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as an underdogCovered 5 of 7 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
18-14
Home
12-5
Road
3-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.3
Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdogOver in 2 of 7 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Cincinnati | N | L 66–73 | +12.0 | W+5.0 | 137.5 | O139 | 100.6 | 111.3 | 65.6 |
| Mar 7 | Baylor | A | L 75–101 | +12.0 | L−14.0 | 148.5 | O176 | 118.7 | 159.9 | 63.2 |
| Mar 3 | Colorado | H | L 78–92 | +1.0 | L−13.0 | 148.5 | O170 | 122.0 | 143.9 | 63.9 |
| Feb 28 | Arizona St | A | L 60–73 | +7.0 | L−6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 102.6 | 124.8 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | #4Iowa State | H | L 59–75 | +14.0 | L−2.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 86.7 | 110.2 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | UCF | H | L 71–73 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 153.0 | U144 | 114.0 | 117.2 | 62.3 |
| Feb 18 | West Virginia | A | W 61–56 | +10.5 | W+15.5 | 134.0 | U117 | 99.9 | 91.7 | 61.0 |
| Feb 15 | Cincinnati | A | L 65–69 | +12.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | U134 | 101.9 | 108.2 | 63.8 |
| Feb 10 | #3Houston | H | L 52–66 | +17.0 | W+3.0 | 142.5 | U118 | 88.6 | 112.4 | 58.7 |
| Feb 7 | #11Kansas | A | L 59–71 | +18.5 | W+6.5 | 150.5 | U130 | 87.9 | 105.8 | 67.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeDaytonUtah
Efficiency
109.9
110.8
102.2
111.0
67.8
67.6
—
—
Shooting
51.6%
52.0%
52.1%
51.5%
33.9%
35.3%
75.4%
73.8%
46.2%
31.7%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
16.7%
21.0%
13.3%
26.9%
29.3%
28.8%
31.6%
9.9%
8.7%
11.4%
12.0%
Style
41.4%
37.5%
41.6%
43.5%
14.1%
12.9%
59.1%
51.7%
27.4%
29.6%
Roster
3.13
3.09
6'5.6"
6'5.7"
85.2%
73.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputDayton
Returning minutes: 85.2%Returning production: 82.2%
Lost
- De'Shayne Montgomery 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Added
- Jaron McKie no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Utah
Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 70.8%
Lost
- Terrence Brown 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Kendyl Sanders 20.1 mpg, 5.2 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
- Jahki Howard 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Moore 0.2 mpg, 0.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Colin McHaney no D1 minutes last season
- Alvin Jackson III no D1 minutes last season
- Babacar Faye no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.