CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJadwin Gymnasium, Princeton, NJ
Monmouth
Efficiency #173
2025-26: 19-15 · 13-8 conf
@
Princeton
Efficiency #251
2025-26: 9-20 · 5-9 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET
69.2
win 47%
Projected
70.1
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: PRIN −0.9 · total 139.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Princeton 66.1, Monmouth 68.0 → 65.7 possessions
−5.7
Princeton offense vs Monmouth defense
−3.1
Monmouth offense vs Princeton defense
−0.2
Projected total
139.3
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Princeton offense vs Monmouth defense
−3.1
Monmouth offense vs Princeton defense
+0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Princeton by 0.9
0.9
Monmouth side ◂▸ Princeton side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.2 against a projected 139.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Princeton.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Monmouth is the faster team (67.2, #235 of 365) and Princeton the slower (64.5, #342). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.3
model
Projected team totals
69.2 / 70.1
Monmouth / Princeton
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#210
Monmouth
66.1#341
Princeton

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Princeton averages 64.5 possessions per 40, Monmouth 67.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantagePrinceton
Where Princeton struggles: ball control
Princeton turns it over on 17.1% of possessions (#211); Monmouth forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#27). Expect about 18.9%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMonmouth
Where Monmouth scores: ball control
Monmouth turns it over on 16.6% of possessions (#173); Princeton forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#327). Expect about 15.1%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Princeton's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Monmouth at about 36.6% of its shots from three, Princeton about 42.7%.
Monmouth has the ball
OffensePrinceton allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #259
52.0% #209
-0.8 pt/100
16.6% #173
14.3% #327
+2.1 pt/100
31.2% #157
28.5% #82
-0.2 pt/100
32.7% #244
34.0% #152
-0.2 pt/100
75.0% #82
—
+0.2 pt/100
Monmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100
Princeton has the ball
OffenseMonmouth allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #260
50.1% #103
-2.3 pt/100
17.1% #211
19.9% #27
-2.7 pt/100
27.2% #287
32.8% #287
-0.7 pt/100
34.6% #192
32.2% #111
-0.2 pt/100
74.8% #90
—
+0.2 pt/100
Princeton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Monmouthoffense vsPrincetondefense
Share of shots by zone
Monmouth shoots
Princeton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.5%#25461.4%#28358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.0%#24545.1%#30139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.8%#15342.3%#31338.0%
Three34.2%#15631.1%#3633.7%
Princetonoffense vsMonmouthdefense
Share of shots by zone
Princeton shoots
Monmouth allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.0%#34155.3%#6758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.0%#6533.6%#3739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.5%#17037.3%#14038.0%
Three33.9%#17733.9%#17433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Monmouth
+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#95 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#157
Def reb %
67.2%
#287
Turnover %
16.6%
#173
Forced TO %
19.9%
#27
FT rate
32.7%
#244
FT allowed
32.2%
#111
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Princeton
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#268 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#287
Def reb %
71.5%
#82
Turnover %
17.1%
#211
Forced TO %
14.3%
#327
FT rate
34.6%
#192
FT allowed
34.0%
#152
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−1.7
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Monmouth has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#95 of 365) to Princeton’s −2.0 (#268).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Monmouth2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Jason Rivera-TorresFJr6'7"34-3435.215.88.12.91.946.2%31.5%4.981.0%28.9%
13Jack CollinsGSr6'5"31-3134.97.04.74.52.743.0%28.9%4.665.3%17.2%
7Justin RayGSo6'3"34-2128.411.32.11.20.655.4%42.0%4.688.9%21.4%
23Cornelius Robinson IIIFJr6'7"33-2524.98.03.91.21.346.9%31.3%0.564.2%22.2%
15Stefanos SpartalisFFr6'9"32-3023.610.75.10.91.546.5%25.0%0.585.1%29.4%
4Andrew BallGJr6'9"34-920.57.93.90.60.856.4%30.5%2.460.0%22.5%
0Dok MuordarCSr7'1"33-312.44.12.30.10.451.0%—0.064.2%20.4%
2Kavion McClainFSr5'10"11-1135.617.12.85.53.558.0%38.1%5.784.6%29.5%
3Anthony MartinezGFr6'2"25-56.90.60.30.60.427.5%100.0%0.042.9%11.5%
5Corey MillerGJr6'2"9-113.43.70.91.00.360.9%44.4%1.083.3%14.2%
24Jinup DobuolFSo6'8"19-06.13.11.00.20.358.2%44.0%1.350.0%28.0%
8O'Marion HarveyFFr6'7"14-03.80.60.70.10.480.0%0.0%0.133.3%13.5%
20Zubayr GriffinGFr6'4"10-03.61.10.70.20.255.0%20.0%0.5—18.6%
9Lucas OrchardGSo6'3"9-02.40.80.30.00.050.0%100.0%0.10.0%18.6%
42Quinn PetersFJr6'6"9-02.10.30.20.00.00.0%—0.050.0%14.3%
10Jack LeahyGJr6'5"9-01.70.00.10.20.10.0%—0.0—15.3%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MonmouthPrinceton
Efficiency
106.8
105.7
106.6
109.9
68.0
66.1
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
49.6%
48.7%
48.6%
34.2%
33.9%
75.0%
74.8%
32.7%
34.6%
Ball control & glass
16.6%
17.1%
19.9%
14.3%
31.2%
27.2%
32.8%
28.5%
9.1%
10.2%
8.7%
10.3%
Style
34.4%
44.5%
42.9%
36.7%
16.0%
4.4%
53.9%
55.0%
25.7%
27.9%
Roster
2.82
2.10
6'6.2"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Monmouth
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Princeton
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Princeton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 32025-26Princeton 58 – 63 Monmouth

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.