Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:30 PM ET · Mississippi Coliseum, Jackson, MS (neutral site)

Neutral siteNon-conferenceMississippi Coliseum, Jackson, MS

Mississippi St

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #58

Tulsa

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #57

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:30 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Mississippi St is the faster team (71.3, #158 of 365) and Tulsa the slower (68.1, #265). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.6

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.6#177

Mississippi St

70.5#192

Tulsa

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Tulsa has the ball+6.2

Mississippi St has the ball+13.6

Tulsa has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.4% #27 · MSST allows 45.4% #86+3.9

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.7% #79 · MSST forces 19.2% #132 · ~12 turnovers+1.2

✓Gets to the lineFTR 59.6% #15 · MSST allows 30.1% #99 · FT 70.6% #165+0.6

✓Wins second chancesOR% 38.9% #56 · MSST allows 23.1% #43+0.4

Mississippi St has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.9% #37 · TLSA allows 52.7% #216+6.8

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.8% #148 · TLSA forces 8.8% #354 · ~8 turnovers+5.9

✓Wins second chancesOR% 47.1% #7 · TLSA allows 12.5% #2+0.7

✓Gets to the lineFTR 40.8% #129 · TLSA allows 33.9% #150 · FT 73.1% #130+0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Mississippi Stoffense vsTulsadefense

Share of shots by zone

Mississippi St shoots

43.5

8.4

7.6

40.5

Tulsa allows

33.3

2.8

11.1

52.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	70.2%#49	58.3%#180	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.4%#173	0.0%#1	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.0%#213	0.0%#1	34.7%
Three	38.7%#75	37.9%#291	32.5%

Tulsaoffense vsMississippi Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Tulsa shoots

30.6

2.8

5.6

61.1

Mississippi St allows

22.1

17.2

12.3

48.4

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.6%#113	55.6%#137	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	100.0%#1	28.6%#100	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	100.0%#1	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	41.2%#50	29.9%#125	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Mississippi St

+12.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#32 of 365

Off reb %

47.1%

Def reb %

76.9%

#43

Turnover %

16.8%

#148

Forced TO %

19.2%

#132

FT rate

40.8%

#129

FT allowed

30.1%

#99

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+5.2

Defensive rebounding+2.8

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Tulsa

+11.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365

Off reb %

38.9%

#56

Def reb %

87.5%

Turnover %

14.7%

#79

Forced TO %

8.8%

#354

FT rate

59.6%

#15

FT allowed

33.9%

#150

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.4

Defensive rebounding+6.4

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−6.6

Foul shots drawn+5.8

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Mississippi St has more extra scoring chances per game: +12.8 (#32 of 365) to Tulsa’s +11.6 (#38).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Mississippi St2026-27 numbers · last game: Jackson St, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.7	33	—	Started last	18.0	1.0	5.0	1.7	62.9%	56.3%	5.3	83.3%	30.6%
5	F	Sr	6'8"	3-3	22.7	27	—	Started last	8.7	6.0	1.0	0.3	60.7%	20.0%	1.7	90.0%	15.8%
2	G	Sr	6'4"	3-0	22.0	18	—	Bench	11.0	3.0	2.3	0.7	66.7%	44.4%	3.0	62.5%	22.1%
21	F	So	6'8"	3-3	20.7	26	—	Started last	10.7	7.3	1.0	0.7	63.2%	0.0%	1.0	66.7%	23.7%
11	G	Sr	6'4"	3-3	19.0	25	—	Started last	8.7	2.0	1.7	1.0	45.2%	27.3%	3.7	77.8%	27.4%
1	G	So	6'5"	3-0	17.0	11	—	Bench	13.7	4.7	2.3	1.0	67.9%	46.2%	4.3	75.0%	35.1%
0	G	Fr	6'7"	3-0	14.7	8	—	Bench	3.3	2.0	1.0	0.7	40.9%	20.0%	1.7	50.0%	17.7%
13	F	So	6'8"	3-0	14.3	13	—	Bench	5.3	3.7	0.7	0.7	68.2%	50.0%	2.0	50.0%	18.2%
22	C	Sr	6'10"	3-3	13.7	19	—	Started last	2.0	4.3	1.0	1.7	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	12.3%
33	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	11.3	15	—	Bench	7.3	5.7	1.0	0.3	55.6%	—	0.0	50.0%	34.4%
99	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	11.3	4	—	Bench	4.0	1.0	1.3	2.0	50.0%	33.3%	2.0	66.7%	30.0%
3	C	So	6'11"	2-0	5.5	—	—	Active	4.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	37.7%
24	G	So	6'7"	2-0	2.0	—	—	Active	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
34	C	Sr	7'0"	2-0	2.0	—	—	Active	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	14.5%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Mississippi St

Against the spread

Season

2-0-1

Home

2-0-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0-1

avg cover +11.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

2-1

Home

2-1

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-1

avg vs total +3.7

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Jackson StAdjEM #354	H	W 98–57	−24.5	W+16.5	153.5	O155	133.8	77.8	73.2
Nov 5	N'Western StAdjEM #329	H	W 82–44	−21.5	W+16.5	152.0	U126	130.6	70.1	62.8
Nov 2	Tennessee TechAdjEM #265	H	W 106–88	−18.0	P0.0	158.5	O194	136.2	113.0	77.8
Mar 11	AuburnAdjEM #33	N	L 61–79	+7.5	L−10.5	159.0	U140	85.6	110.8	71.3
Mar 7	GeorgiaAdjEM #61	H	L 96–102	+5.0	L−1.0	164.5	O198	121.1	128.7	79.3
Mar 3	#5FloridaAdjEM #5	A	L 74–108	+21.0	L−13.0	160.5	O182	98.6	143.9	75.1
Feb 28	MissouriAdjEM #24	H	L 64–88	+1.0	L−23.0	154.5	U152	93.0	127.9	68.8
Feb 25	#17AlabamaAdjEM #15	A	L 75–100	+12.5	L−12.5	175.5	U175	98.8	131.7	75.9
Feb 21	South CarolinaAdjEM #107	A	L 89–97	−1.0	L−9.0	152.0	O186	122.7	133.7	72.5
Feb 18	AuburnAdjEM #33	H	W 91–85	+5.5	W+11.5	155.0	O176	135.0	126.1	67.4

Tulsa

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +4.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +14.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 5	N IllinoisAdjEM #287	H	W 94–75	−14.5	W+4.5	154.5	O169	138.1	110.2	68.1
Nov 2	Ottawa (KS) Braves	H	W 98–50	—	—	—	—	140.3	71.6	69.9
Apr 5	AuburnAdjEM #33	N	L 86–92 OT	+5.5	L−0.5	159.5	O178	105.2	112.5	81.8
Apr 2	New MexicoAdjEM #32	N	W 74–69	−3.0	W+2.0	162.5	U143	104.2	97.1	71.0
Mar 24	Wichita StAdjEM #95	H	W 83–79	−4.5	L−0.5	154.0	O162	110.6	105.2	75.1
Mar 22	UNLVAdjEM #129	H	W 77–66	−5.0	W+6.0	161.5	U143	117.0	100.3	65.8
Mar 17	SF AustinAdjEM #96	H	W 89–84 OT	−6.5	L−1.5	150.5	O173	113.3	107.0	78.5
Mar 14	Wichita StAdjEM #95	N	L 68–81	−1.5	L−14.5	152.0	U149	104.9	124.9	64.8
Mar 13	North TexasAdjEM #122	N	W 90–84 3OT	−8.5	L−2.5	142.0	O174	98.7	92.1	91.2
Mar 8	TempleAdjEM #217	H	W 78–76	−11.5	L−9.5	150.5	O154	116.6	113.6	66.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Mississippi StTulsa

Efficiency

112.9

116.5

102.2

105.7

70.6

70.5

-11.9

-8.1

Shooting

59.9%

61.4%

61.2%

60.9%

38.7%

41.2%

73.1%

70.6%

40.8%

59.6%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

14.7%

19.2%

8.8%

47.1%

38.9%

23.1%

12.5%

10.3%

5.9%

6.0%

13.0%

Style

39.3%

59.6%

46.9%

27.7%

13.6%

10.6%

55.0%

39.3%

48.6%

47.3%

Roster

2.87

3.08

6'5.9"

6'6.2"

21.0%

15.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Mississippi St

Returning minutes: 21.0%Returning production: 26.2%

Lost

Jayden Epps 25.5 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Shawn Jones Jr. 25.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ja'Borri McGhee 22.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jamarion Davis-Fleming 20.3 mpg, 3.7 ppg · transferred to Alabama
Quincy Ballard 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Achor Achor 17.7 mpg, 6.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kimani Hamilton from UNLV · 29.3 mpg, 12.8 ppg last season
RJ Johnson from Kennesaw St · 27.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg last season
Tajuan Simpkins from Seton Hall · 25.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
ND Okafor from Washington St · 23.2 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
Kendyl Sanders from Utah · 20.1 mpg, 5.2 ppg last season
Thomas Bassong from Florida St · 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Tulsa

Returning minutes: 15.1%Returning production: 15.2%

Lost

Miles Barnstable 30.3 mpg, 14.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ade Popoola 28.7 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to DePaul
Tylen Riley 27.7 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
David Green 25.6 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tyler Behrend 21.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to Grand Canyon
Romad Dean 16.0 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Macon Emory from Delaware · 37.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
Kobi Williams from Missouri St · 34.4 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
Jeremiah Johnson from Campbell · 32.4 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
Brent Moss from UTSA · 25.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
Chris Loofe from MTSU · 24.9 mpg, 7.3 ppg last season
Mike Williams III from Seton Hall · 20.9 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 20

Temple vs MTSU · 12:30 PM ET
Oklahoma St vs Minnesota · 12:30 PM ET
G Washington vs UAB · 2:00 PM ET
Indiana St vs SF Austin · 3:00 PM ET
W Illinois vs UAlbany · 3:00 PM ET
Northwestern vs Virginia Tech · 3:00 PM ET
S Dakota St at Idaho St · 4:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
Manhattan at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
UT Martin vs S Illinois · 5:30 PM ET
Mercyhurst at Canisius · 5:30 PM ET
Dayton vs Utah · 5:30 PM ET
Delaware at CSU Northridge · 6:00 PM ET
North Texas at App State · 6:30 PM ET
Coastal at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
C Michigan at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
Wagner at Maryland · 7:00 PM ET
Saint Joseph's at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
Harvard at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
Loyola MD at Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
W Michigan at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
Kansas City at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
Bellarmine at E Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
Niagara at Delaware St · 7:00 PM ET
SC State at The Citadel · 7:00 PM ET
Oakland at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
Georgia St at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond vs Western KY · 7:00 PM ET
Iowa at Xavier · 7:30 PM ET
UT Arlington at N'Western St · 7:30 PM ET
Georgia at Georgia Tech · 8:00 PM ET
Green Bay at Florida St · 8:00 PM ET
Campbell at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
Utah Valley vs East Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
Kentucky vs Indiana · 8:00 PM ET
Le Moyne at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
Lipscomb at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
UCF at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
Miss Valley St at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
South Alabama at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
Marshall at North Carolina · 9:00 PM ET
E Illinois at Illinois · 9:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
Sam Houston at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at Fresno St · 10:00 PM ET
Saint Louis at Saint Mary's · 11:00 PM ET

← Thu, Nov 19 · Sat, Nov 21 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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