CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFood City Center, Knoxville, TN

Coastal

Efficiency #241

2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf

Tennessee

Efficiency #13

2025-26: 25-12 · 12-8 conf

Fri, Nov 20 · TBD

61.5

win 7%

Projected

78.6

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: TENN −17.1 · total 140.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Tennessee 67.1, Coastal 68.1 → 66.9 possessions

−3.2

Tennessee offense vs Coastal defense

+4.1

Coastal offense vs Tennessee defense

−9.2

Projected total

140.1

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Tennessee offense vs Coastal defense

+4.1

Coastal offense vs Tennessee defense

+9.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Tennessee by 17.1

17.1

Coastal side ◂▸ Tennessee side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.9 against a projected 140.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Coastal is the faster team (68.3, #189 of 365) and Tennessee the slower (67.4, #226). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.1

model

Projected team totals

61.5 / 78.6

Coastal / Tennessee

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.1#200

Coastal

67.1#284

Tennessee

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCoastal

Where Coastal struggles: shooting

Coastal shoots an effective 47.9% (#314); Tennessee allows 47.8% (#37). Expect about 47.5%, 3.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageTennessee

Where Tennessee scores: the offensive glass

Tennessee rebounds 44.7% of its own misses (#1); Coastal lets opponents grab 27.6% of their own misses (#52). Expect about 39.0%, 8.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashCoastal

Style match: ball movement

Coastal creates off the dribble (assists on 40.4% of its baskets); Tennessee breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 40.9% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversTennessee

Tennessee protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.2% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Tennessee's offense.

ClashTennessee

Style match: 3-point volume

Tennessee rarely shoots threes (32.1% of its shots); Coastal runs teams off the line (35.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.1% — both habits push the same way.

GlassCoastal

Coastal gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Coastal's offense.

Coastal has the ball

OffenseTennessee allowsvs D1 avg

47.9% #314

47.8% #37

-5.3 pt/100

15.2% #82

16.2% #214

+1.6 pt/100

26.9% #296

27.8% #61

-2.2 pt/100

32.3% #254

36.3% #221

-0.1 pt/100

73.1% #165

—

+0.1 pt/100

Coastal net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.0 pts/100

Tennessee has the ball

OffenseCoastal allowsvs D1 avg

51.4% #174

46.8% #18

-3.1 pt/100

17.3% #227

12.3% #364

+3.1 pt/100

44.7% #1

27.6% #52

+5.2 pt/100

37.4% #115

34.9% #174

+0.1 pt/100

69.1% #296

—

-0.3 pt/100

Tennessee net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Coastaloffense vsTennesseedefense

Share of shots by zone

Coastal shoots

30.7

5.3

21.1

42.9

Tennessee allows

32.0

7.2

15.9

44.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#324	55.1%#60	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.3%#215	34.1%#45	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#245	41.4%#287	38.0%
Three	33.5%#196	30.5%#21	33.7%

Tennesseeoffense vsCoastaldefense

Share of shots by zone

Tennessee shoots

42.9

7.1

18.4

31.6

Coastal allows

33.4

5.7

25.7

35.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.5%#140	48.8%#3	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#134	45.2%#302	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.7%#268	38.9%#198	38.0%
Three	33.4%#201	32.8%#105	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Coastal

−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#291 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#296

Def reb %

72.4%

#52

Turnover %

15.2%

#82

Forced TO %

12.3%

#364

FT rate

32.3%

#254

FT allowed

34.9%

#174

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−3.0

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Tennessee

+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#21 of 365

Off reb %

44.7%

Def reb %

72.2%

#61

Turnover %

17.3%

#227

Forced TO %

16.2%

#214

FT rate

37.4%

#115

FT allowed

36.3%

#221

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+4.6

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.4

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Tennessee has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#21 of 365) to Coastal’s −2.7 (#291).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coastal2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Rasheed Jones	G	Jr	6'6"	32-32	36.2	14.8	4.6	2.9	1.5	49.1%	36.7%	6.1	80.7%	24.8%
0	AJ Dancler	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	33.2	15.6	5.5	2.1	1.5	49.6%	39.3%	6.3	75.7%	28.5%
5	Joshua Beadle	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	32.2	17.8	3.9	2.9	2.6	46.2%	26.3%	3.7	79.7%	35.8%
21	Reggie Hill	F	Sr	6'7"	31-30	25.2	6.6	5.8	0.8	1.4	45.3%	35.1%	3.6	72.1%	19.2%
4	Nadjrick Peat	F	Sr	6'10"	32-32	23.1	4.3	5.7	0.1	1.1	68.6%	—	0.0	63.5%	10.6%
1	Tristan Thompson	G	Fr	6'5"	32-0	19.5	4.0	4.2	0.8	0.8	43.2%	16.1%	1.0	65.1%	14.9%
3	DaJohn Craig	G	So	6'1"	32-0	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.4	0.5	53.5%	37.2%	2.9	88.9%	20.9%
15	Derrick Green	F	So	6'9"	31-0	10.6	2.1	2.9	0.2	0.4	65.7%	—	0.0	43.2%	12.4%
14	Jerry Ngopot	F	Sr	6'10"	24-2	8.5	2.2	2.3	0.1	0.2	41.4%	28.1%	1.3	0.0%	19.2%
13	Braeden MacVicar	F	So	6'11"	23-0	7.5	2.7	2.1	0.1	0.3	43.3%	29.6%	2.3	68.8%	25.1%
11	Jackson Keil	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	17.8%
30	Charles Dunlap	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	4.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	8.1%
20	Connor Martin	F	Jr	6'4"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	17.7%
7	Andre Mulibea	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Devin Brown	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tennessee2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Bishop Boswell	G	So	6'4"	34-33	26.5	6.2	4.4	3.1	1.6	52.2%	38.5%	2.3	66.7%	16.4%
13	J.P. Estrella	F	So	6'11"	33-13	18.3	10.0	5.4	0.8	0.9	60.4%	40.0%	0.3	63.4%	29.5%
6	DeWayne Brown II	F	Fr	6'8"	35-10	14.6	4.8	3.6	0.9	0.9	58.6%	—	0.0	66.0%	19.4%
1	Amari Evans	G	Fr	6'5"	35-2	14.4	4.1	3.2	0.8	0.6	46.1%	22.0%	1.4	57.5%	20.0%
35	Ethan Burg	G	So	6'3"	30-1	11.1	2.6	0.9	1.2	0.7	56.6%	40.5%	1.2	81.8%	15.6%
77	Amaree Abram	G	Sr	6'3"	25-3	10.6	3.2	1.4	0.7	0.3	50.0%	36.8%	1.5	77.8%	18.0%
24	Troy Henderson	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	7.4	1.9	0.5	1.1	0.3	46.2%	33.3%	1.7	0.0%	18.0%
12	Cade Phillips	F	Jr	6'9"	10-9	16.8	3.8	4.0	0.4	0.7	65.4%	—	0.0	30.8%	13.3%
4	Clarence Massamba	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	3.7	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	21.4%	14.3%	0.6	50.0%	13.4%
21	Campbell Duncan	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
11	Gavin Paull	G	So	5'11"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	56.6%
7	Grant Hurst	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	2.0	0.0%	70.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Coastal2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Rasheed Jones	G	Jr	6'6"	32-32	36.2	14.8	4.6	2.9	1.5	49.1%	36.7%	6.1	80.7%	24.8%
0	AJ Dancler	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	33.2	15.6	5.5	2.1	1.5	49.6%	39.3%	6.3	75.7%	28.5%
5	Joshua Beadle	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	32.2	17.8	3.9	2.9	2.6	46.2%	26.3%	3.7	79.7%	35.8%
21	Reggie Hill	F	Sr	6'7"	31-30	25.2	6.6	5.8	0.8	1.4	45.3%	35.1%	3.6	72.1%	19.2%
4	Nadjrick Peat	F	Sr	6'10"	32-32	23.1	4.3	5.7	0.1	1.1	68.6%	—	0.0	63.5%	10.6%
1	Tristan Thompson	G	Fr	6'5"	32-0	19.5	4.0	4.2	0.8	0.8	43.2%	16.1%	1.0	65.1%	14.9%
3	DaJohn Craig	G	So	6'1"	32-0	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.4	0.5	53.5%	37.2%	2.9	88.9%	20.9%
15	Derrick Green	F	So	6'9"	31-0	10.6	2.1	2.9	0.2	0.4	65.7%	—	0.0	43.2%	12.4%
14	Jerry Ngopot	F	Sr	6'10"	24-2	8.5	2.2	2.3	0.1	0.2	41.4%	28.1%	1.3	0.0%	19.2%
13	Braeden MacVicar	F	So	6'11"	23-0	7.5	2.7	2.1	0.1	0.3	43.3%	29.6%	2.3	68.8%	25.1%
11	Jackson Keil	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	100.0%	17.8%
30	Charles Dunlap	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	4.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	8.1%
20	Connor Martin	F	Jr	6'4"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	17.7%
7	Andre Mulibea	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Devin Brown	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Coastal

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

10-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

6-6

Road

11-6

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 72–96	−1.0	L−25.0	150.5	O168	105.7	140.9	68.1
Feb 27	James MadisonAdjEM #206	A	W 69–68	+6.0	W+7.0	142.0	U137	108.6	107.0	63.5
Feb 24	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 76–71	−1.0	W+4.0	141.0	O147	113.3	105.9	67.1
Feb 21	MarshallAdjEM #175	H	W 79–75	+2.5	W+6.5	153.5	O154	104.8	99.5	75.3
Feb 18	James MadisonAdjEM #206	H	L 65–67	+1.0	L−1.0	141.5	U132	99.1	102.2	65.6
Feb 12	LouisianaAdjEM #318	A	W 69–65	−1.0	W+3.0	132.0	O134	98.7	93.0	69.9
Feb 7	UMassAdjEM #184	H	W 94–91 3OT	+2.5	W+5.5	148.5	O185	112.2	108.6	83.8
Feb 4	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	H	L 66–70	+5.0	W+1.0	151.5	U136	94.3	100.0	70.0
Feb 1	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	A	W 83–79	−9.0	L−5.0	145.0	O162	124.4	118.4	66.7
Jan 29	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	A	L 48–53	+3.5	L−1.5	140.0	U101	80.0	88.3	60.0

Tennessee

Against the spread

Season

17-18-2

Home

7-9-1

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-19

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.3

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 29	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 62–95	+8.0	L−25.0	146.0	O157	82.3	126.1	75.3
Mar 27	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 76–62	+3.0	W+17.0	139.5	U138	111.8	91.2	68.0
Mar 22	#3VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	W 79–72	−1.0	W+6.0	136.5	O151	120.5	109.8	65.5
Mar 20	#11Miami OHAdjEM #66	N	W 78–56	−12.0	W+10.0	149.0	U134	118.7	85.2	65.7
Mar 13	#22VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	L 68–75	−2.0	L−9.0	147.0	U143	109.1	120.3	62.4
Mar 12	AuburnAdjEM #41	N	W 72–62	−5.5	W+4.5	145.0	U134	112.8	97.1	63.9
Mar 7	#24VanderbiltAdjEM #12	H	L 82–86	−3.0	L−7.0	145.5	O168	112.2	117.7	73.1
Mar 3	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	A	W 78–59	−11.0	W+8.0	142.0	U137	126.6	95.8	61.6
Feb 28	#17AlabamaAdjEM #18	H	L 69–71	−5.0	L−7.0	162.5	U140	109.5	112.7	63.0
Feb 24	MissouriAdjEM #67	A	L 69–73	−4.0	L−8.0	144.0	U142	105.3	111.4	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

CoastalTennessee

Efficiency

103.8

115.9

107.3

99.5

68.1

67.1

—

Shooting

47.9%

51.4%

46.1%

52.0%

33.5%

33.4%

73.1%

69.1%

32.3%

37.4%

Ball control & glass

15.2%

17.3%

12.3%

16.2%

26.9%

44.7%

27.6%

27.8%

7.9%

10.4%

7.6%

9.4%

Style

43.1%

32.1%

34.5%

48.5%

10.3%

13.7%

40.4%

60.4%

26.8%

31.7%

Roster

3.10

1.84

6'5.4"

6'5.8"

—

47.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Coastal

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Tennessee

Returning minutes: 47.2%Returning production: 42.6%

Lost

Ja'Kobi Gillespie 34.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Nate Ament 28.1 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Felix Okpara 25.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaylen Carey 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.