CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEvent Center, Huntsville, AL
Lipscomb
Efficiency #179
2025-26: 19-13 · 12-7 conf
@
Alabama A&M
Efficiency #312
2025-26: 18-15 · 11-9 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · TBD
74.7
win 55%
Projected
73.2
win 45%
No line posted yet.
Model: LIP −1.5 · total 147.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama A&M 66.9, Lipscomb 69.7 → 68.3 possessions
0.0
Alabama A&M offense vs Lipscomb defense
−2.9
Lipscomb offense vs Alabama A&M defense
+2.6
Projected total
147.9
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Alabama A&M offense vs Lipscomb defense
−2.9
Lipscomb offense vs Alabama A&M defense
−2.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Lipscomb by 1.5
1.5
Lipscomb side ◂▸ Alabama A&M side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −1.6 against −1.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama A&M.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Lipscomb is the faster team (70.5, #76 of 365) and Alabama A&M the slower (67.3, #232). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.9
model
Projected team totals
74.7 / 73.2
Lipscomb / Alabama A&M
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#69
Lipscomb
66.9#296
Alabama A&M

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLipscomb
Where Lipscomb scores: shooting
Lipscomb shoots an effective 54.1% (#67); Alabama A&M allows 52.1% (#220). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLipscomb
Lipscomb gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.8% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Lipscomb's offense.
ClashAlabama A&M
Style match: ball movement
Alabama A&M creates off the dribble (assists on 48.0% of its baskets); Lipscomb breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 45.6% — both habits push the same way.
ClashAlabama A&M
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
Alabama A&M (#3 in free-throw rate) against Lipscomb (#45 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 36.5%. Historically Lipscomb's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
ClashAlabama A&M
Style clash: paint scoring
Alabama A&M gets only 39.1% of its points in the paint; Lipscomb gives up 46.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 43.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Lipscomb has the ball
OffenseAlabama A&M allowsvs D1 avg
54.1% #67
52.1% #220
+2.9 pt/100
16.0% #142
16.6% #177
+0.7 pt/100
25.8% #327
29.5% #137
-2.2 pt/100
26.0% #357
38.6% #275
-0.3 pt/100
74.9% #85
—
+0.2 pt/100
Lipscomb net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100
Alabama A&M has the ball
OffenseLipscomb allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #281
53.2% #273
-0.3 pt/100
16.5% #165
17.7% #112
-0.6 pt/100
27.5% #283
30.2% #171
-1.3 pt/100
45.4% #3
29.0% #45
+0.2 pt/100
73.8% #141
—
+0.1 pt/100
Alabama A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Lipscomboffense vsAlabama A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
Lipscomb shoots
Alabama A&M allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.2%#11462.2%#30258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.8%#24632.9%#2839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.1%#36132.0%#1738.0%
Three35.7%#7535.4%#27233.7%
Alabama A&Moffense vsLipscombdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama A&M shoots
Lipscomb allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.8%#30462.9%#32258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.5%#23643.8%#26439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.4%#30435.8%#10238.0%
Three35.0%#11434.3%#20733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Lipscomb
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#220 of 365
Off reb %
25.8%
#327
Def reb %
69.8%
#171
Turnover %
16.0%
#142
Forced TO %
17.7%
#112
FT rate
26.0%
#357
FT allowed
29.0%
#45
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn−2.3
Foul shots allowed+1.6
Alabama A&M
+1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#126 of 365
Off reb %
27.5%
#283
Def reb %
70.5%
#137
Turnover %
16.5%
#165
Forced TO %
16.6%
#177
FT rate
45.4%
#3
FT allowed
38.6%
#275
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn+2.7
Foul shots allowed−0.9

Alabama A&M has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.3 (#126 of 365) to Lipscomb’s −0.8 (#220).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Lipscomb2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Lipscomb's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Mateo EsmeraldoGJr6'1"32-3230.19.93.87.01.653.2%36.8%2.782.9%19.0%
35Grant AsmanFSr6'11"32-3227.814.35.81.81.660.8%36.2%5.176.8%26.3%
26Titas SargiunasFJr6'4"32-2023.79.72.11.91.551.8%34.0%4.473.3%24.6%
30Ross CandelinoGJr6'5"28-1324.911.25.21.40.962.4%42.6%5.569.8%22.3%
33Charlie WilliamsCSr6'10"32-3221.310.12.62.31.753.2%33.7%3.279.2%28.9%
7Ethan DuncanGJr6'0"31-721.210.52.01.00.655.7%36.7%5.792.3%26.0%
6Or AshkenaziFFr6'5"31-2419.52.92.81.50.550.7%39.4%1.175.0%9.4%
3Kennedy OkparaFFr6'7"30-013.75.12.70.40.850.4%30.2%1.854.5%23.3%
23Kellan BoylanFSr6'7"32-012.23.43.60.70.447.0%6.3%0.567.3%17.2%
24Cole MiddletonFSr6'6"29-011.94.62.10.51.246.3%29.4%0.680.0%26.5%
12Luke CarterGJr6'1"7-04.02.70.60.00.079.2%71.4%1.0—23.1%
2Devyn MartinFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Josh ScottFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Logan SuberGSo6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Luke JackFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Miles WhiteGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LipscombAlabama A&M
Efficiency
107.8
104.6
108.1
112.9
69.7
66.9
—
—
Shooting
54.1%
49.2%
54.5%
47.5%
35.7%
35.0%
74.9%
73.8%
26.0%
45.4%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
16.5%
17.7%
16.6%
25.8%
27.5%
30.2%
29.5%
9.3%
8.9%
10.1%
8.5%
Style
47.9%
34.0%
42.5%
39.1%
16.2%
14.9%
62.3%
48.0%
36.9%
29.7%
Roster
3.04
3.39
6'5.4"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Lipscomb
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Lipscomb's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Alabama A&M
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama A&M's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Dec 72025-26Alabama A&M 58 – 92 Lipscomb

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.