Georgia State Panthers vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET · Pete Mathews Coliseum, Jacksonville, AL

Non-conferenceESPN+Pete Mathews Coliseum, Jacksonville, AL

Georgia St

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #285

Jax State

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #189

Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Georgia St is the faster team (69.0, #236 of 365) and Jax State the slower (61.7, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.0

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.1#143

Georgia St

67.5#343

Jax State

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Jax State has the ball+3.6

Georgia St has the ball−0.6

Jax State has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 54.7% #115 · GAST allows 55.4% #264+5.0

✗Few second chancesOR% 26.3% #268 · GAST allows 32.3% #200−1.4

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.6% #294 · GAST allows 42.0% #234 · FT 58.8% #323−0.9

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.2% #186 · GAST forces 16.7% #222 · ~12 turnovers+0.9

Georgia St has the ball

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.7% #138 · JXST forces 11.7% #336 · ~9 turnovers+4.2

✗Few second chancesOR% 24.7% #286 · JXST allows 25.0% #61−3.3

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.7% #259 · JXST allows 23.9% #38 · FT 54.3% #343−1.9

✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.3% #165 · JXST allows 50.0% #163+0.4

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Georgia Stoffense vsJax Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Georgia St shoots

27.4

11.1

13.7

47.9

Jax State allows

26.5

24.5

10.2

38.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	40.6%#338	53.8%#121	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#161	66.7%#322	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	50.0%#45	60.0%#329	34.7%
Three	41.1%#53	18.5%#11	32.5%

Jax Stateoffense vsGeorgia Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Jax State shoots

15.1

7.5

18.9

58.5

Georgia St allows

48.2

8.0

8.9

34.8

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	75.0%#14	64.8%#260	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	25.0%#250	33.3%#125	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	20.0%#279	30.0%#128	34.7%
Three	41.0%#54	35.9%#255	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Georgia St

−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#255 of 365

Off reb %

24.7%

#286

Def reb %

67.7%

#200

Turnover %

16.7%

#138

Forced TO %

16.7%

#222

FT rate

29.7%

#259

FT allowed

42.0%

#234

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn−2.0

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Jax State

−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365

Off reb %

26.3%

#268

Def reb %

75.0%

#61

Turnover %

18.2%

#186

Forced TO %

11.7%

#336

FT rate

26.6%

#294

FT allowed

23.9%

#38

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding+2.2

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−4.5

Foul shots drawn−2.8

Foul shots allowed+3.6

Jax State has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.2 (#225 of 365) to Georgia St’s −5.4 (#255).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Georgia St2026-27 numbers · last game: Charlotte, Nov 5

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
14	G	Jr	6'0"	3-3	36.0	40	—	Started last	17.0	3.3	1.3	1.3	56.7%	37.5%	13.3	—	25.3%
4	G	Sr	6'2"	3-3	35.0	40	—	Started last	15.3	2.3	6.3	2.7	46.2%	33.3%	4.0	62.5%	29.1%
12	G	Sr	6'2"	3-3	34.7	38	—	Started last	12.7	4.0	3.3	1.0	40.0%	19.0%	7.0	76.9%	23.7%
10	F	Jr	6'7"	3-3	29.7	38	—	Started last	14.3	10.3	1.7	1.3	70.0%	75.0%	2.7	25.0%	22.6%
0	G	So	6'6"	3-2	24.0	26	—	Started last	13.0	5.0	0.7	1.0	80.6%	25.0%	1.3	58.8%	22.4%
50	C	Sr	6'10"	3-1	15.3	17	—	Bench	1.3	3.7	0.3	1.3	33.3%	—	0.0	0.0%	13.3%
15	F	So	6'7"	2-0	15.0	0	—	Missed last game	4.5	4.5	0.5	0.5	44.4%	0.0%	1.5	50.0%	19.1%
11	F	Sr	6'10"	3-0	9.7	1	—	Bench	3.0	2.7	0.3	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.5%
2	G	Fr	6'2"	1-0	12.0	—	—	Active	10.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	83.3%	66.7%	3.0	—	30.3%
32	G	Fr	6'0"	1-0	5.0	—	—	Active	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	20.8%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Georgia St

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover −2.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total −6.2

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Andrew Fighting Tigers	H	W 111–61	—	—	—	—	143.7	79.0	77.2
Nov 5	CharlotteAdjEM #146	A	L 67–77	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O144	100.1	115.0	66.9
Nov 2	Bowling GreenAdjEM #127	H	L 73–76	−3.5	L−6.5	162.0	U149	102.8	107.0	71.0
Mar 3	LouisianaAdjEM #313	N	L 75–84	−1.0	L−10.0	134.0	O159	108.3	121.3	69.3
Feb 27	Old DominionAdjEM #147	H	L 73–81	+1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O154	99.1	109.9	73.7
Feb 24	CoastalAdjEM #292	H	L 71–76	+1.0	L−4.0	141.0	O147	105.9	113.3	67.1
Feb 21	James MadisonAdjEM #187	H	L 65–80	+2.5	L−12.5	142.5	O145	97.0	119.4	67.0
Feb 19	GA SouthernAdjEM #207	H	W 66–64	+1.0	W+3.0	155.0	U130	96.2	93.3	68.6
Feb 14	Old DominionAdjEM #147	A	L 55–78	+4.0	L−19.0	147.0	U133	85.2	120.8	64.6
Feb 12	James MadisonAdjEM #187	A	L 79–81 OT	+6.0	W+4.0	144.0	O160	106.8	109.5	74.0

Jax State

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +2.0

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +23.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 5	South AlabamaAdjEM #216	A	L 80–83 2OT	+5.0	W+2.0	139.5	O163	103.8	107.7	77.1
Nov 2	LaGrange Panthers	H	W 123–59	—	—	—	—	147.2	70.6	83.6
Mar 10	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	N	L 63–68	+1.5	L−3.5	142.0	U131	98.1	105.9	64.2
Mar 7	UTEPAdjEM #243	A	W 64–61	+1.0	W+4.0	139.0	U125	95.6	91.1	67.0
Mar 5	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	A	L 75–77 OT	+6.0	W+4.0	145.5	O152	98.8	101.5	75.9
Feb 28	LibertyAdjEM #145	H	L 78–81	+4.0	W+1.0	139.0	O159	122.8	127.5	63.5
Feb 26	DelawareAdjEM #258	H	W 80–70 OT	−7.5	W+2.5	134.0	O150	119.8	104.8	66.8
Feb 21	Sam HoustonAdjEM #123	A	L 78–82	+7.5	W+3.5	148.5	O160	115.7	121.6	67.4
Feb 18	Louisiana TechAdjEM #228	A	L 71–77	+2.0	L−4.0	133.0	O148	101.1	109.6	70.2
Feb 14	New Mexico StAdjEM #231	H	L 70–79	−2.5	L−11.5	140.5	O149	106.3	119.9	65.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Georgia StJax State

Efficiency

99.6

103.6

107.5

105.4

71.1

67.5

1.8

-3.4

Shooting

51.3%

54.7%

41.9%

44.0%

41.1%

41.0%

54.3%

58.8%

29.7%

26.6%

Ball control & glass

16.7%

18.2%

16.7%

11.7%

24.7%

26.3%

32.3%

25.0%

9.4%

9.1%

6.5%

0.0%

Style

47.5%

60.9%

28.6%

27.5%

7.9%

17.5%

44.9%

74.1%

21.2%

41.2%

Roster

3.25

2.59

6'4.1"

6'6"

2.4%

0.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Georgia St

Returning minutes: 2.4%Returning production: 2.1%

Lost

Malachi Brown 31.0 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to W Carolina
Micah Tucker 30.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · transferred to Grand Canyon
Jelani Hamilton 26.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to FAU
Anthony Enoh 20.8 mpg, 4.7 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
Joah Chappelle 20.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Tulane
Ayouba Berthe 16.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jaden Jackson from S Dakota St · 32.1 mpg, 12.3 ppg last season
Eric Parnell from FDU · 25.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
Jacob Meyer from UAB · 24.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
Terrance Dixon Jr. from Southern · 20.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
Jacolb Fredson-Cole from McNeese · 18.7 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
Zion Wilburn from Samford · 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season

Returns 2% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (5 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Jax State

Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%

Lost

Jacoby Hill 30.5 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil 29.9 mpg, 19.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
AC Bryant 26.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaye Nash 25.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to UConn
Emondrek Erkins-Ford 21.5 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to Western KY
Iaroslav Niagu 18.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Colorado

Added

Jordan Stiemke from Loyola MD · 27.5 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
Chris Lockett Jr. from Jacksonville · 24.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
Ma'Shy Hill from Abilene Chrstn · 10.1 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
Naas Cunningham from UNLV · 8.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
Leon Horner from Texas Tech · 6.1 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
Brandon Walker from Mississippi St · 5.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	Jax State 73 – 77 Georgia St

More games on Fri, Nov 20

Temple vs MTSU · 12:30 PM ET
Oklahoma St vs Minnesota · 12:30 PM ET
G Washington vs UAB · 2:00 PM ET
Indiana St vs SF Austin · 3:00 PM ET
W Illinois vs UAlbany · 3:00 PM ET
Northwestern vs Virginia Tech · 3:00 PM ET
S Dakota St at Idaho St · 4:00 PM ET
Rhode Island vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
Manhattan at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
UT Martin vs S Illinois · 5:30 PM ET
Mercyhurst at Canisius · 5:30 PM ET
Dayton vs Utah · 5:30 PM ET
Delaware at CSU Northridge · 6:00 PM ET
North Texas at App State · 6:30 PM ET
Coastal at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
C Michigan at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
Wagner at Maryland · 7:00 PM ET
Saint Joseph's at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
Harvard at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
Loyola MD at Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
W Michigan at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
Kansas City at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
Bellarmine at E Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
Niagara at Delaware St · 7:00 PM ET
SC State at The Citadel · 7:00 PM ET
Oakland at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond vs Western KY · 7:00 PM ET
Iowa at Xavier · 7:30 PM ET
UT Arlington at N'Western St · 7:30 PM ET
Mississippi St vs Tulsa · 7:30 PM ET
Georgia at Georgia Tech · 8:00 PM ET
Green Bay at Florida St · 8:00 PM ET
Campbell at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
Utah Valley vs East Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
Kentucky vs Indiana · 8:00 PM ET
Le Moyne at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
Lipscomb at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
UCF at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
Miss Valley St at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
South Alabama at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
Marshall at North Carolina · 9:00 PM ET
E Illinois at Illinois · 9:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
Sam Houston at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at Fresno St · 10:00 PM ET
Saint Louis at Saint Mary's · 11:00 PM ET

← Thu, Nov 19 · Sat, Nov 21 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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