Alabama State Hornets vs Fresno State Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 20 · 10:00 PM ET · Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Non-conferenceSave Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Alabama St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #305
@
Fresno St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #185
Fri, Nov 20 · 10:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Alabama St is the faster team (83.4, #4 of 365) and Fresno St the slower (67.1, #290). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.3
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
73.6#43
Alabama St
70.2#213
Fresno St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Fresno St has the ball+5.1
Alabama St has the ball−5.5
Fresno St has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.4% #227 · ALST forces 13.2% #312 · ~11 turnovers+2.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.2% #85 · ALST allows 33.3% #217+2.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 7.4% #358 · ALST allows 77.4% #358 · FT 80.0% #45+1.5
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.9% #269 · ALST allows 54.8% #258−0.9
Alabama St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 38.8% #335 · FRES allows 57.7% #306−3.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 30.0% #354 · FRES forces 11.9% #333 · ~15 turnovers−2.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 28.4% #270 · FRES allows 15.4% #6 · FT 73.7% #122−1.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.6% #102 · FRES allows 31.4% #186+1.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootAlabama Stoffense vsFresno Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama St shoots
41.4
8.6
13.8
36.2
Fresno St allows
48.4
9.7
4.8
37.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 41.7%#329 | 70.0%#303 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 20.0%#275 | 16.7%#45 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 12.5%#315 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.3%#158 | 36.0%#257 | 32.5% |
Fresno Stoffense vsAlabama Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Fresno St shoots
37.7
4.9
0.0
57.4
Alabama St allows
38.8
18.4
4.1
38.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.5%#200 | 57.9%#170 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#29 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | — | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 24.3%#311 | 34.8%#222 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineAlabama St
−23.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#357 of 365
Off reb %
35.6%
#102
Def reb %
66.7%
#217
Turnover %
30.0%
#354
Forced TO %
13.2%
#312
FT rate
28.4%
#270
FT allowed
77.4%
#358
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−8.3
Forcing turnovers−3.5
Foul shots drawn−2.3
Foul shots allowed−10.3
Fresno St
−5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#249 of 365
Off reb %
37.2%
#85
Def reb %
68.6%
#186
Turnover %
19.4%
#227
Forced TO %
11.9%
#333
FT rate
7.4%
#358
FT allowed
15.4%
#6
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−7.8
Foul shots allowed+5.9
Fresno St has more extra scoring chances per game: −5.2 (#249 of 365) to Alabama St’s −23.6 (#357).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Alabama St2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 35.5 | 20.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 48.5% | 54.5% | 5.5 | 64.3% | 33.8% | Active | |
| 10 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 2-2 | 30.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 32.6% | 27.3% | 5.5 | 80.0% | 26.5% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 18.8% | 0.0% | 4.5 | 50.0% | 21.6% | Active | |
| 33 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-1 | 22.5 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 75.0% | 21.6% | Active | |
| 2 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 7.4% | Active | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 95.5% | 70.0% | 5.0 | 100.0% | 21.4% | Active | |
| 23 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 58.3% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 83.3% | 16.9% | Active | |
| 11 | F | So | 6'9" | 1-1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | Missed last | |
| 25 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 15.5% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 23.8% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 17.0% | Active | |
| 22 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 15.7% | Missed last | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Missed last |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesAlabama St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-0-1
Last 10
0-0-1
avg vs total 0.0
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Georgia Gwinnett Grizzlies | H | L 77–79 | — | — | — | — | 113.2 | 116.2 | 68.0 |
| Nov 3 | Texas A&M | A | L 66–97 | +32.5 | W+1.5 | 163.0 | P163 | 79.1 | 116.3 | 83.4 |
| Mar 9 | Alcorn St | N | L 65–77 | −7.5 | L−19.5 | 142.0 | P142 | 92.4 | 109.4 | 70.4 |
| Mar 5 | Grambling | H | L 63–65 | −2.5 | L−4.5 | 145.5 | U128 | 89.0 | 91.9 | 70.8 |
| Mar 3 | Southern | H | L 64–71 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 153.0 | U135 | 90.2 | 100.0 | 71.0 |
| Feb 28 | Alabama A&M | A | W 89–88 | +1.0 | W+2.0 | 143.0 | O177 | 132.5 | 131.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 21 | Florida A&M | A | L 63–76 | −1.5 | L−14.5 | 144.5 | U139 | 90.2 | 108.8 | 69.8 |
| Feb 19 | Bethune | A | L 71–82 | +5.5 | L−5.5 | 148.0 | O153 | 99.4 | 114.8 | 71.4 |
| Feb 16 | Miss Valley St | H | W 92–55 | −16.5 | W+20.5 | 143.0 | O147 | 127.3 | 76.1 | 72.3 |
| Feb 14 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | W 79–61 | −3.5 | W+14.5 | 150.0 | U140 | 109.1 | 84.2 | 72.4 |
Fresno St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −5.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | UC San Diego | A | L 65–81 | +11.0 | L−5.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 96.9 | 120.8 | 67.1 |
| Nov 2 | Fresno Pacific Sunbirds | H | W 88–79 | — | — | — | — | 113.4 | 101.8 | 77.6 |
| Mar 11 | Colorado St | N | L 63–67 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 100.1 | 106.4 | 63.0 |
| Mar 7 | Grand Canyon | A | L 60–85 | +12.5 | L−12.5 | 150.0 | U145 | 82.6 | 117.0 | 72.7 |
| Mar 3 | San José St | H | W 82–68 | −7.5 | W+6.5 | 149.5 | O150 | 120.2 | 99.7 | 68.2 |
| Feb 28 | Boise St | H | L 53–69 | +7.0 | L−9.0 | 149.0 | U122 | 88.3 | 114.9 | 60.0 |
| Feb 24 | Colorado St | A | L 70–74 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 105.0 | 111.0 | 66.7 |
| Feb 21 | New Mexico | H | L 78–80 | +9.0 | W+7.0 | 156.5 | O158 | 116.0 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Wyoming | A | L 82–92 | +9.5 | L−0.5 | 147.5 | O174 | 125.6 | 140.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 14 | Air Force | H | W 93–63 | −15.0 | W+15.0 | 142.0 | O156 | 127.5 | 86.4 | 72.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAlabama StFresno St
Efficiency
98.4
103.7
108.6
105.3
73.6
70.2
16.6
4.5
Shooting
38.8%
44.9%
32.6%
54.8%
33.3%
24.3%
73.7%
80.0%
28.4%
7.4%
Ball control & glass
30.0%
19.4%
13.2%
11.9%
35.6%
37.2%
33.3%
31.4%
15.6%
11.9%
14.0%
3.2%
Style
35.8%
54.4%
39.4%
52.3%
4.5%
7.7%
50.0%
53.8%
33.5%
18.3%
Roster
3.19
2.66
6'4.7"
6'5.9"
5.0%
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAlabama St
Returning minutes: 5.0%Returning production: 4.4%
Lost
- Micah Simpson 32.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cameron Palesse 27.7 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jerquarius Stanback 24.6 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Boise St
- Tyler Byrd 23.3 mpg, 10.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Asjon Anderson 23.3 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Damarien Yates 17.1 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to North Alabama
Added
- Mike James from Miss Valley St · 35.6 mpg, 20.8 ppg last season
- Amaree Brown from S Indiana · 14.1 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
- Joseph Scott from Abilene Chrstn · 10.4 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
- Isaiah Barganier from Texas St · 0.5 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Terrance Hampton no D1 minutes last season
- Noah Benny no D1 minutes last season
Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Fresno St
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Jake Heidbreder 34.7 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- DeShawn Gory 29.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Oregon St
- Wilson Jacques 27.4 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to DePaul
- Zaon Collins 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Ball State
- Cameron Faas 19.1 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bastien Rieber 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
- Ross Candelino from Lipscomb · 21.8 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Bradey Henige from CA Baptist · 19.6 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Brian Amuneke from Wichita St · 7.9 mpg, 2.4 ppg last season
- Dragos Lungu from UT Martin · 4.7 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Baye Fall from Rutgers · 1.4 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
- Nathan Zulemie no D1 minutes last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 20
- Temple vs MTSU · 12:30 PM ET
- Oklahoma St vs Minnesota · 12:30 PM ET
- G Washington vs UAB · 2:00 PM ET
- Indiana St vs SF Austin · 3:00 PM ET
- W Illinois vs UAlbany · 3:00 PM ET
- Northwestern vs Virginia Tech · 3:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St at Idaho St · 4:00 PM ET
- Rhode Island vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
- Manhattan at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- UT Martin vs S Illinois · 5:30 PM ET
- Mercyhurst at Canisius · 5:30 PM ET
- Dayton vs Utah · 5:30 PM ET
- Delaware at CSU Northridge · 6:00 PM ET
- North Texas at App State · 6:30 PM ET
- Coastal at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- C Michigan at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- Wagner at Maryland · 7:00 PM ET
- Saint Joseph's at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Loyola MD at Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
- W Michigan at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
- Kansas City at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at E Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Monmouth at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- Niagara at Delaware St · 7:00 PM ET
- SC State at The Citadel · 7:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Richmond vs Western KY · 7:00 PM ET
- Iowa at Xavier · 7:30 PM ET
- UT Arlington at N'Western St · 7:30 PM ET
- Mississippi St vs Tulsa · 7:30 PM ET
- Georgia at Georgia Tech · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Florida St · 8:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Utah Valley vs East Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
- Kentucky vs Indiana · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
- UCF at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Marshall at North Carolina · 9:00 PM ET
- E Illinois at Illinois · 9:00 PM ET
- Bakersfield at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- Saint Louis at Saint Mary's · 11:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.