CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMcCamish Pavilion, Atlanta, GA
Georgia
Efficiency #32
2025-26: 22-11 · 10-9 conf
@
Georgia Tech
Efficiency #201
2025-26: 11-20 · 2-16 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · TBD
83.7
win 69%
Projected
77.9
win 31%
No line posted yet.
Model: UGA −5.9 · total 161.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia Tech 70.6, Georgia 71.5 → 73.8 possessions
+11.9
Georgia Tech offense vs Georgia defense
−4.3
Georgia offense vs Georgia Tech defense
+5.8
Projected total
161.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgia Tech offense vs Georgia defense
−4.3
Georgia offense vs Georgia Tech defense
−5.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Georgia by 5.9
5.9
Georgia side ◂▸ Georgia Tech side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia Tech.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgia is the faster team (73.6, #8 of 365) and Georgia Tech the slower (71.6, #30). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
73.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
161.6
model
Projected team totals
83.7 / 77.9
Georgia / Georgia Tech
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.5#10
Georgia
70.6#23
Georgia Tech

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Georgia Tech averages 71.6 possessions per 40, Georgia 73.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseGeorgia
Georgia's shot-blocking
Georgia ranks #10 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.7% of Georgia Tech's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageGeorgia
Where Georgia scores: ball control
Georgia turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#31); Georgia Tech forces turnovers on 15.6% of opponent possessions (#245). Expect about 14.6%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGeorgia Tech
Where Georgia Tech struggles: ball control
Georgia Tech turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#306); Georgia forces turnovers on 18.4% of opponent possessions (#81). Expect about 18.8%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashGeorgia
Style match: 3-point volume
Georgia takes 44.3% of its shots from three; Georgia Tech lets opponents take 44.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.5% — both habits push the same way.
GlassGeorgia
Georgia owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.7% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Georgia's offense.
Georgia has the ball
OffenseGeorgia Tech allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #61
49.9% #94
+1.4 pt/100
14.3% #31
15.6% #245
+2.7 pt/100
34.9% #49
30.7% #189
+2.0 pt/100
36.9% #131
34.2% #156
+0.1 pt/100
75.0% #81
—
+0.2 pt/100
Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100
Georgia Tech has the ball
OffenseGeorgia allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #234
50.6% #134
-1.5 pt/100
18.6% #306
18.4% #81
-2.6 pt/100
29.9% #203
34.9% #336
+1.1 pt/100
33.3% #229
30.2% #65
-0.5 pt/100
71.1% #235
—
-0.1 pt/100
Georgia Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Georgiaoffense vsGeorgia Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia shoots
Georgia Tech allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.2%#6856.8%#10858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.0%#5138.1%#14039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.1%#21837.1%#13338.0%
Three33.8%#18533.1%#13433.7%
Georgia Techoffense vsGeorgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia Tech shoots
Georgia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23756.7%#10658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.3%#31243.8%#26539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.6%#27038.7%#18638.0%
Three35.1%#10933.6%#16533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Georgia
+4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#28 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#49
Def reb %
65.1%
#336
Turnover %
14.3%
#31
Forced TO %
18.4%
#81
FT rate
36.9%
#131
FT allowed
30.2%
#65
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Georgia Tech
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#280 of 365
Off reb %
29.9%
#203
Def reb %
69.3%
#189
Turnover %
18.6%
#306
Forced TO %
15.6%
#245
FT rate
33.3%
#229
FT allowed
34.2%
#156
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.3
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Georgia has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.7 (#28 of 365) to Georgia Tech’s −2.4 (#280).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Georgia2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Freddie Dilione Vat Penn StateGSr6'5"32-1527.514.03.22.21.553.0%31.8%4.181.7%30.3%
0Blue CainGSr6'5"33-3327.813.15.12.61.153.6%30.0%4.590.7%24.2%
4Marcus MillenderGSr5'11"33-826.212.02.84.11.855.6%38.6%4.884.0%24.6%
6Kanon CatchingsFJr6'9"32-3223.311.64.81.21.253.2%37.6%5.765.1%27.7%
9James Scottat Ole MissFSr6'11"35-2717.93.94.60.60.672.9%—0.050.0%11.0%
11Brady Dunlapat Saint LouisFSr6'8"34-216.97.02.00.90.962.0%45.1%3.381.4%20.4%
1Kareem StaggFSo6'8"33-912.84.82.40.60.857.5%30.0%1.575.6%19.8%
34Andrew Osasuyiat St BonaventureFSo6'10"33-211.93.72.80.20.665.1%—0.046.9%17.9%
30Brandon KlatskyGSr6'4"7-01.61.10.10.00.080.0%66.7%0.4—23.0%
12Markel JenningsGSr5'11"1-01.00.00.00.01.0——0.0—48.4%
16David Ugonna IkeFFr7'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Donovan Williams Jr.GFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Hakeem WeemsFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
55Kemauri MillenderGSr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Mading KuanyFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Freddie Dilione V (from Penn State), Brady Dunlap (from Saint Louis), Andrew Osasuyi (from St Bonaventure), James Scott (from Ole Miss)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
GeorgiaGeorgia Tech
Efficiency
117.4
106.1
105.0
107.4
71.5
70.6
—
—
Shooting
54.2%
50.0%
57.0%
48.7%
33.8%
35.1%
75.0%
71.1%
36.9%
33.3%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
18.6%
18.4%
15.6%
34.9%
29.9%
34.9%
30.7%
9.4%
11.3%
9.8%
10.8%
Style
44.3%
33.2%
43.2%
45.7%
22.1%
12.2%
48.1%
59.9%
41.6%
31.5%
Roster
3.56
3.70
6'6.2"
6'3.5"
44.2%
14.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Georgia
Returning minutes: 44.2%Returning production: 44.6%
Lost
  • Jeremiah Wilkinson 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Arkansas
  • Somto Cyril 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jordan Ross 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to California
  • Dylan James 15.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Bailey 11.8 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Abson 10.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Freddie Dilione V from Penn State · 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
  • James Scott from Ole Miss · 17.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
  • Brady Dunlap from Saint Louis · 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
  • Andrew Osasuyi from St Bonaventure · 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
  • Mading Kuany no D1 minutes last season
  • Donovan Williams Jr. no D1 minutes last season

Returns 44% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Georgia Tech
Returning minutes: 14.2%Returning production: 10.3%
Lost
  • Kowacie Reeves Jr. 28.3 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamar Washington 26.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaeden Mustaf 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Akai Fleming 24.7 mpg, 10.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Baye Ndongo 23.7 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chas Kelley III 16.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Nasir Whitlock from Lehigh · 35.0 mpg, 20.5 ppg last season
  • Colby Garland from San José St · 30.9 mpg, 17.8 ppg last season
  • Courtland Muldrew from Washington · 7.7 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
  • Jackson Fields from West Virginia · 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg last season
  • Haiden Harper no D1 minutes last season
  • Vctor Valds no D1 minutes last season

Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 142025-26Georgia Tech 87 – 92 Georgia

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.