Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Purdue Boilermakers basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET · Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Non-conferenceBTNMackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Oakland
0-4 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #267
@
Purdue
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #28
Fri, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Oakland is the faster team (69.3, #227 of 365) and Purdue the slower (63.3, #342). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#262
Oakland
66.2#361
Purdue
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Purdue has the ball+9.6
Oakland has the ball−2.7
Purdue has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.5% #161 · OAK allows 62.5% #339+6.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.0% #117 · OAK forces 13.7% #295 · ~9 turnovers+3.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.9% #232 · OAK allows 33.3% #217−0.4
✓Gets to the lineFTR 43.0% #104 · OAK allows 24.1% #40 · FT 81.7% #36+0.3
Oakland has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 43.6% #286 · PUR allows 50.9% #186−3.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.8% #244 · PUR forces 13.6% #297 · ~11 turnovers+1.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · PUR allows 22.9% #40−1.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.3% #114 · PUR allows 35.3% #169 · FT 70.8% #162+0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootOaklandoffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
Oakland shoots
39.5
7.3
14.7
38.4
Purdue allows
26.5
12.0
22.3
39.2
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.4%#255 | 72.7%#326 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.8%#224 | 40.0%#193 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 23.1%#267 | 51.4%#308 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.5%#270 | 26.5%#75 | 32.5% |
Purdueoffense vsOaklanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
24.5
11.9
22.0
41.5
Oakland allows
34.7
6.6
7.1
51.5
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.5%#131 | 72.1%#324 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 73.7%#23 | 30.8%#119 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.7%#82 | 35.7%#187 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.5%#271 | 42.6%#323 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineOakland
+0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#166 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
66.7%
#217
Turnover %
19.8%
#244
Forced TO %
13.7%
#295
FT rate
42.3%
#114
FT allowed
24.1%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−3.1
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+3.6
Purdue
+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#138 of 365
Off reb %
28.9%
#232
Def reb %
77.1%
#40
Turnover %
16.0%
#117
Forced TO %
13.6%
#297
FT rate
43.0%
#104
FT allowed
35.3%
#169
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+2.9
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−3.2
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Purdue has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#138 of 365) to Oakland’s +0.7 (#166).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notOakland2026-27 numbers · last game: Alabama, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 4-4 | 33.3 | 37 | — | Started last | 17.3 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 49.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 71.4% | 32.2% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 4-4 | 32.0 | 37 | — | Started last | 15.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 44.1% | 29.0% | 7.8 | 94.4% | 32.7% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'3" | 4-0 | 21.5 | 14 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 54.3% | 27.3% | 2.8 | 50.0% | 22.0% | |
| 13 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 4-4 | 21.5 | 29 | — | Started last | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.8 | 83.3% | 18.6% | |
| 10 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 4-2 | 20.3 | 15 | — | Bench | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 58.3% | 44.4% | 2.3 | — | 12.9% | |
| 24 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 4-4 | 17.8 | 9 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 31.6% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 61.5% | 23.6% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'10" | 4-2 | 13.5 | 9 | — | Started last | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 34.4% | 20.0% | 1.3 | 54.5% | 29.1% | |
| 1 | G | So | 6'4" | 4-0 | 12.8 | 17 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 44.4% | 25.0% | 2.0 | — | 12.5% | |
| 6 | F | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 10.5 | 19 | — | Bench | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 42.9% | — | 0.0 | 81.8% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'8" | 4-0 | 6.0 | 10 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 1.0 | — | 22.3% | |
| 22 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 4-0 | 4.0 | 0 | — | Bench | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 25.8% | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 3.5 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 8.4% | |
| 21 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 4-0 | 3.3 | — | — | Active | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 15.5% | |
| 7 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Out L3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 56.1% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesOakland
Against the spread
Season
1-3
Home
0-0
Road
1-3
Last 10
1-3
avg cover −2.8
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 4 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
2-2
Home
0-0
Road
2-2
Last 10
2-2
avg vs total +1.5
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | #18Alabama | A | L 68–109 | +32.0 | L−9.0 | 171.0 | O177 | 95.3 | 152.8 | 71.3 |
| Nov 7 | Santa Barbara | A | L 67–90 | +13.5 | L−9.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 104.6 | 140.5 | 64.1 |
| Nov 6 | Stanford | A | L 63–81 | +15.0 | L−3.0 | 146.5 | U144 | 90.6 | 116.5 | 69.5 |
| Nov 2 | #16Michigan | A | L 68–84 | +26.5 | W+10.5 | 157.5 | U152 | 94.0 | 116.1 | 72.4 |
| Mar 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 84–85 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 162.5 | O169 | 115.1 | 116.5 | 73.0 |
| Feb 28 | Detroit Mercy | H | L 89–95 | −8.0 | L−14.0 | 161.5 | O184 | 123.4 | 131.7 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | IU Indy | A | W 86–74 | −5.5 | W+6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 118.5 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 22 | Milwaukee | H | W 81–70 | −6.5 | W+4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 123.9 | 107.1 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Green Bay | H | L 68–73 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 153.5 | U141 | 107.8 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 15 | Robert Morris | A | L 69–93 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 104.4 | 140.7 | 66.1 |
Purdue
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −7.2
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total +2.2
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Illinois St | H | W 76–59 | −15.0 | W+2.0 | 144.0 | U135 | 126.9 | 98.5 | 59.9 |
| Nov 6 | Valparaiso | H | L 80–83 2OT | −19.5 | L−22.5 | 144.0 | O163 | 103.4 | 107.2 | 77.4 |
| Nov 2 | #15Gonzaga | N | L 72–78 | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 153.5 | U150 | 105.0 | 113.8 | 68.6 |
| Mar 28 | #1Arizona | N | L 64–79 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 98.0 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #11Texas | N | W 79–77 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 129.9 | 126.6 | 60.8 |
| Mar 22 | #7Miami | N | W 79–69 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 120.4 | 105.2 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #15Queens | N | W 104–71 | −25.5 | W+7.5 | 159.5 | O175 | 154.0 | 105.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 15 | #3Michigan | N | W 80–72 | +5.5 | W+13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 127.7 | 114.9 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | UCLA | N | W 73–66 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U139 | 122.4 | 110.7 | 59.6 |
| Mar 13 | #11Nebraska | N | W 74–58 | −4.5 | W+11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 122.4 | 95.9 | 60.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOaklandPurdue
Efficiency
107.6
118.8
113.9
101.8
69.4
66.2
13.6
11.3
Shooting
43.6%
51.5%
45.8%
59.8%
26.5%
26.5%
70.8%
81.7%
42.3%
43.0%
Ball control & glass
19.8%
16.0%
13.7%
13.6%
33.3%
28.9%
33.3%
22.9%
11.5%
7.8%
16.0%
6.2%
Style
36.6%
41.2%
44.4%
37.7%
9.0%
6.6%
37.5%
67.1%
40.0%
27.4%
Roster
3.10
2.59
6'5.9"
6'6.2"
9.9%
40.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOakland
Returning minutes: 9.9%Returning production: 7.7%
Lost
- Brody Robinson 35.8 mpg, 17.6 ppg · transferred to Creighton
- Tuburu Naivalurua 31.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ziare Wells 26.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaac Garrett 25.3 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to High Point
- Brett White II 24.0 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Michael Houge 22.5 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Belal El Shakery from New Hampshire · 25.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Brady Swartz from W Michigan · 16.6 mpg, 6.2 ppg last season
- Chris Fields Jr. from Campbell · 14.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
- Josh Hill from Robert Morris · 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
- RJ Taylor from Northern Iowa · 9.1 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
- Hamoudy Mashhour no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Purdue
Returning minutes: 41.2%Returning production: 31.7%
Lost
- Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Kansas
- Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Liam Murphy 2.3 mpg, 0.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
- Rivers Knight no D1 minutes last season
- Caden Pierce no D1 minutes last season
- Jacob Webber no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Ertel no D1 minutes last season
- Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 41% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 7 | 2025-26 | Oakland 77 – 87 Purdue |
More games on Fri, Nov 20
- Temple vs MTSU · 12:30 PM ET
- Oklahoma St vs Minnesota · 12:30 PM ET
- G Washington vs UAB · 2:00 PM ET
- Indiana St vs SF Austin · 3:00 PM ET
- W Illinois vs UAlbany · 3:00 PM ET
- Northwestern vs Virginia Tech · 3:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St at Idaho St · 4:00 PM ET
- Rhode Island vs Liberty · 4:30 PM ET
- Manhattan at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- UT Martin vs S Illinois · 5:30 PM ET
- Mercyhurst at Canisius · 5:30 PM ET
- Dayton vs Utah · 5:30 PM ET
- Delaware at CSU Northridge · 6:00 PM ET
- North Texas at App State · 6:30 PM ET
- Coastal at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- C Michigan at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- Wagner at Maryland · 7:00 PM ET
- Saint Joseph's at Drexel · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Loyola MD at Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
- W Michigan at Mount St Marys · 7:00 PM ET
- Kansas City at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at E Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Monmouth at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- Niagara at Delaware St · 7:00 PM ET
- SC State at The Citadel · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Richmond vs Western KY · 7:00 PM ET
- Iowa at Xavier · 7:30 PM ET
- UT Arlington at N'Western St · 7:30 PM ET
- Mississippi St vs Tulsa · 7:30 PM ET
- Georgia at Georgia Tech · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Florida St · 8:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Kansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Utah Valley vs East Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
- Kentucky vs Indiana · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Missouri · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
- UCF at Vanderbilt · 8:00 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Marshall at North Carolina · 9:00 PM ET
- E Illinois at Illinois · 9:00 PM ET
- Bakersfield at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- Alabama St at Fresno St · 10:00 PM ET
- Saint Louis at Saint Mary's · 11:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.