CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePremier America Credit Union Arena, Northridge, CA

Delaware

Efficiency #302

2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf

CSU Northridge

Efficiency #196

2025-26: 20-14 · 13-9 conf

Fri, Nov 20 · 6:00 PM ET

71.5

win 23%

Projected

79.9

win 77%

No line posted yet.

Model: CSUN −8.5 · total 151.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: CSU Northridge 72.4, Delaware 65.5 → 69.6 possessions

+2.8

CSU Northridge offense vs Delaware defense

+2.4

Delaware offense vs CSU Northridge defense

−2.0

Projected total

151.4

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

CSU Northridge offense vs Delaware defense

+2.4

Delaware offense vs CSU Northridge defense

+2.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

CSU Northridge by 8.5

8.5

Delaware side ◂▸ CSU Northridge side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +8.4 against +8.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help CSU Northridge.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, CSU Northridge is the faster team (75.3, #3 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.4

model

Projected team totals

71.5 / 79.9

Delaware / CSU Northridge

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.5#356

Delaware

72.4#3

CSU Northridge

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

CSU Northridge averages 75.3 possessions per 40, Delaware 63.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageDelaware

Where Delaware struggles: the offensive glass

Delaware rebounds 20.8% of its own misses (#362); CSU Northridge lets opponents grab 26.6% of their own misses (#26). Expect about 21.9%, 8.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashDelaware

Style match: 3-point volume

Delaware takes 46.2% of its shots from three; CSU Northridge lets opponents take 48.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 50.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashCSU Northridge

Style match: ball movement

CSU Northridge assists on 56.6% of its made baskets; Delaware allows assists on 60.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 60.5% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Delaware at about 50.8% of its shots from three, CSU Northridge about 37.3%.

AdvantageCSU Northridge

Where CSU Northridge scores: ball control

CSU Northridge turns it over on 17.5% of possessions (#239); Delaware forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#334). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

Delaware has the ball

OffenseCSU Northridge allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #89

51.6% #191

+1.9 pt/100

18.2% #285

16.4% #191

-0.8 pt/100

20.8% #362

26.6% #26

-5.2 pt/100

30.6% #291

34.3% #162

-0.3 pt/100

78.6% #10

—

+0.5 pt/100

Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100

CSU Northridge has the ball

OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg

51.3% #183

51.5% #185

+0.2 pt/100

17.5% #239

14.0% #334

+1.6 pt/100

31.9% #130

31.1% #206

+0.8 pt/100

34.2% #200

30.2% #62

-0.4 pt/100

66.8% #345

—

-0.5 pt/100

CSU Northridge net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Delawareoffense vsCSU Northridgedefense

Share of shots by zone

Delaware shoots

33.1

6.3

14.6

46.0

CSU Northridge allows

33.0

4.9

13.1

49.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#179	58.4%#162	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.6%#185	37.4%#122	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#144	40.2%#248	38.0%
Three	36.8%#31	34.4%#210	33.7%

CSU Northridgeoffense vsDelawaredefense

Share of shots by zone

CSU Northridge shoots

48.7

6.0

12.0

33.3

Delaware allows

33.6

5.7

17.4

43.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#194	59.3%#206	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.7%#319	38.0%#136	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#62	36.1%#112	38.0%
Three	32.4%#260	35.1%#255	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Delaware

−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365

Off reb %

20.8%

#362

Def reb %

68.9%

#206

Turnover %

18.2%

#285

Forced TO %

14.0%

#334

FT rate

30.6%

#291

FT allowed

30.2%

#62

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.3

CSU Northridge

+1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#133 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#130

Def reb %

73.4%

#26

Turnover %

17.5%

#239

Forced TO %

16.4%

#191

FT rate

34.2%

#200

FT allowed

34.3%

#162

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security−0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.2

CSU Northridge has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.1 (#133 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

CSU Northridge2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Josiah Davis	G	Sr	6'3"	34-34	33.4	15.9	4.6	7.4	4.7	46.6%	16.7%	1.1	70.0%	31.7%
2	Larry Hughes II	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	31.6	17.7	2.9	0.9	1.4	53.3%	39.5%	7.8	86.0%	28.0%
11	Mahmoud Fofana	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	29.5	11.0	7.9	1.5	1.1	63.2%	20.0%	0.1	60.5%	17.4%
23	Jordan Brinson	G	Sr	6'2"	33-1	18.3	3.5	2.8	1.6	0.5	50.0%	34.9%	1.9	85.0%	10.9%
1	Davius Loury	F	So	6'7"	33-22	16.9	4.9	2.2	0.8	0.8	42.4%	29.4%	3.1	64.7%	19.6%
5	James Evans Jr.	G	Fr	6'6"	34-10	15.2	6.0	1.9	1.2	0.8	44.6%	33.0%	2.6	58.8%	25.1%
21	Grady Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	31-2	9.8	4.0	2.5	0.4	0.4	65.5%	—	0.0	38.9%	19.6%
15	Jai Chisolm	G	Jr	6'3"	33-1	8.8	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.4	42.9%	20.3%	1.9	60.0%	22.3%
13	Aleks Szymczyk	C	Jr	6'10"	26-0	8.2	2.9	2.8	0.2	0.4	53.7%	18.2%	0.4	58.1%	19.4%
24	Greg Gazarian	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	3.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	31.3%
20	Robert Thibiant	G	Sr	6'2"	8-0	2.1	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.3	31.8%	14.3%	0.9	—	39.3%
6	Joseph Barrio	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	1.8	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	5.7%
3	Jalen Barbee	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Max Rehl	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Omer Dahan	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
—	Quinton Webb	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Delaware

Against the spread

Season

14-15-1

Home

6-7-1

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

10-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +13.9

Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	L 38–81	+2.0	L−41.0	132.5	U119	60.3	128.5	63.0
Mar 5	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	H	W 83–80	+7.5	W+10.5	148.0	O163	116.7	112.4	71.2
Feb 28	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 82–90	+12.0	W+4.0	143.0	O172	117.9	129.4	69.5
Feb 26	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	L 70–80 OT	+7.5	L−2.5	134.0	O150	104.8	119.8	66.8
Feb 21	MTSUAdjEM #167	A	L 66–78	+10.0	L−2.0	137.5	O144	106.5	125.8	62.0
Feb 18	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	L 87–88 OT	+4.0	W+3.0	139.5	O175	125.3	126.7	69.4
Feb 14	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	W 76–67	+8.5	W+17.5	135.0	O143	121.0	106.7	62.8
Feb 12	FIUAdjEM #200	A	W 68–66	+8.5	W+10.5	146.5	U134	101.9	98.9	66.8
Feb 7	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	W 89–88 OT	+4.5	W+5.5	133.5	O177	129.9	128.5	68.5
Feb 4	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 69–75	+10.0	W+4.0	132.0	O144	110.6	120.2	62.4

CSU Northridge

Against the spread

Season

15-17

Home

9-4

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-13

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.9

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	N	L 78–93	+4.0	L−11.0	153.0	O171	110.4	131.7	70.6
Mar 12	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	N	W 80–70	+2.0	W+12.0	153.5	U150	110.2	96.4	72.6
Mar 7	FullertonAdjEM #205	H	L 77–90	−6.0	L−19.0	170.5	U167	93.1	108.9	82.7
Mar 5	BakersfieldAdjEM #339	A	W 86–84	−8.0	L−6.0	165.0	O170	108.2	105.7	79.5
Feb 28	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	A	L 84–95	−5.5	L−16.5	158.0	O179	105.8	119.6	79.4
Feb 26	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	H	L 67–68	−1.0	L−2.0	154.0	U135	91.7	93.0	73.1
Feb 21	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	A	W 78–76	−3.5	L−1.5	157.5	U154	108.7	105.9	71.8
Feb 19	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	A	W 85–83 OT	+5.5	W+7.5	156.5	O168	102.1	99.7	83.2
Feb 14	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	H	W 84–60	+3.0	W+27.0	163.0	U144	117.1	83.6	71.7
Feb 7	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	H	W 88–74	−10.5	W+3.5	159.5	O162	120.9	101.6	72.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DelawareCSU Northridge

Efficiency

105.2

107.8

112.6

108.9

65.5

72.4

—

Shooting

53.3%

51.3%

51.7%

52.6%

36.8%

32.4%

78.6%

66.8%

30.6%

34.2%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

17.5%

14.0%

16.4%

20.8%

31.9%

31.1%

26.6%

11.4%

10.7%

10.4%

10.1%

Style

46.2%

33.6%

36.8%

50.4%

6.9%

14.8%

52.3%

56.6%

15.7%

26.5%

Roster

2.72

3.43

6'6.4"

6'4.8"

—

83.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Delaware

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

CSU Northridge

Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 81.4%

Lost

Joshua O'Garro 32.5 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Max Rehl no D1 minutes last season
Jalen Barbee no D1 minutes last season
Omer Dahan no D1 minutes last season
Quinton Webb no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	CSU Northridge 88 – 66 Delaware

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.