CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS
Campbell
Efficiency #208
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf
@
Kansas St
Efficiency #128
2025-26: 12-20 · 3-16 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · TBD
77.6
win 27%
Projected
84.7
win 73%
No line posted yet.
Model: KSU −7.1 · total 162.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas St 71.8, Campbell 69.9 → 73.4 possessions
+11.1
Kansas St offense vs Campbell defense
+3.0
Campbell offense vs Kansas St defense
+0.1
Projected total
162.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kansas St offense vs Campbell defense
+3.0
Campbell offense vs Kansas St defense
−0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Kansas St by 7.1
7.1
Campbell side ◂▸ Kansas St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas St is the faster team (73.8, #7 of 365) and Campbell the slower (70.0, #93). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
162.4
model
Projected team totals
77.6 / 84.7
Campbell / Kansas St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#53
Campbell
71.8#7
Kansas St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Kansas St averages 73.8 possessions per 40, Campbell 70.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageKansas St
Where Kansas St scores: shooting
Kansas St shoots an effective 53.3% (#88); Campbell allows 53.9% (#295). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageCampbell
Where Campbell scores: the offensive glass
Campbell rebounds 33.5% of its own misses (#77); Kansas St lets opponents grab 33.9% of their own misses (#317). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Campbell at about 36.8% of its shots from three, Kansas St about 34.5%.
Campbell has the ball
OffenseKansas St allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #230
52.5% #239
-0.1 pt/100
17.6% #241
17.1% #144
-0.8 pt/100
33.5% #77
33.9% #317
+2.3 pt/100
43.5% #16
35.2% #183
+0.5 pt/100
72.5% #190
—
+0.0 pt/100
Campbell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100
Kansas St has the ball
OffenseCampbell allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #88
53.9% #295
+3.6 pt/100
17.4% #234
17.0% #157
-0.6 pt/100
29.2% #229
32.0% #254
-0.0 pt/100
26.9% #351
37.0% #238
-0.3 pt/100
71.0% #241
—
-0.1 pt/100
Kansas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersCampbelloffense vsKansas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Campbell shoots
45.5
9.5
8.5
36.5
Kansas St allows
39.3
6.6
15.8
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.3%#218 | 60.6%#255 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.1%#329 | 40.8%#205 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#292 | 42.0%#301 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.3%#267 | 33.7%#166 | 33.7% |
Kansas Stoffense vsCampbelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas St shoots
38.1
7.9
13.9
40.1
Campbell allows
45.0
9.9
15.5
29.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.6%#60 | 63.2%#327 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.6%#254 | 33.7%#40 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 31.9%#341 | 35.5%#89 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.4%#43 | 35.5%#277 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersCampbell
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#105 of 365
Off reb %
33.5%
#77
Def reb %
68.0%
#254
Turnover %
17.6%
#241
Forced TO %
17.0%
#157
FT rate
43.5%
#16
FT allowed
37.0%
#238
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Kansas St
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#323 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#229
Def reb %
66.1%
#317
Turnover %
17.4%
#234
Forced TO %
17.1%
#144
FT rate
26.9%
#351
FT allowed
35.2%
#183
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed0.0
Campbell has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#105 of 365) to Kansas St’s −3.7 (#323).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Campbell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | DJ Smith | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-33 | 34.4 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 49.1% | 33.9% | 8.5 | 83.6% | 31.0% | |
| 7 | Cam Gregory | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 52.9% | 33.1% | 3.7 | 76.5% | 14.3% | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Johnson | G | So | 6'4" | 34-31 | 32.4 | 15.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 51.9% | 37.4% | 3.9 | 86.5% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Dovydas Butka | F | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 33.9 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 51.0% | 16.7% | 1.0 | 55.3% | 26.2% | |
| 1 | Tasos Cook | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-8 | 24.7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 50.3% | 35.8% | 3.3 | 79.2% | 17.0% | |
| 11 | Muneer Newton | F | Sr | 6'5" | 34-27 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 70.7% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 48.4% | 17.6% | |
| 0 | Chris Fields Jr. | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-5 | 18.6 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 46.6% | 7.7% | 0.5 | 64.6% | 34.2% | |
| 22 | Dominykas Butka | G | Fr | 6'6" | 22-0 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.4 | 62.5% | 17.5% | |
| 5 | Enoch Kalambay | G | Sr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.0% | 12.5% | 1.6 | — | 22.4% | |
| 4 | Broc Bidwell | G | Sr | 6'0" | 11-0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 61.1% | 42.9% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 20.3% | |
| 15 | Terren Frank | F | Sr | 6'8" | 6-1 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 18.2% | |
| 32 | Daniel Marcellinus | F | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 9.8% | |
| 12 | Israel Yaw | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Klairus Amir | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kansas St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | P.J. Haggerty | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 35.2 | 23.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 52.5% | 35.1% | 3.7 | 70.1% | 37.3% | |
| 34 | Nate Johnson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 55.0% | 40.8% | 4.9 | 85.0% | 22.0% | |
| 10 | David Castillo | G | So | 6'1" | 32-16 | 28.1 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 49.7% | 35.2% | 5.0 | 82.0% | 21.6% | |
| 15 | Taj Manning | F | Jr | 6'7" | 30-17 | 20.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.0% | 18.5% | 0.9 | 69.7% | 12.1% | |
| 21 | Khamari McGriff | F | Sr | 6'9" | 28-28 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 68.4% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 21.5% | |
| 3 | C.J. Jones | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-1 | 17.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 37.1% | 23.2% | 2.2 | 83.3% | 16.7% | |
| 1 | Abdi Bashir Jr. | G | Jr | 6'7" | 18-18 | 24.5 | 13.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 59.7% | 44.4% | 8.4 | 68.8% | 26.3% | |
| 22 | Dorin Buca | C | Jr | 7'2" | 27-4 | 12.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 52.2% | 18.2% | 0.4 | 53.3% | 17.7% | |
| 47 | Andrej Kostic | F | Fr | 6'6" | 23-0 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.5% | 3.5 | 76.9% | 22.8% | |
| 0 | Elias Rapieque | F | Jr | 6'9" | 20-12 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 54.0% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 14.8% | |
| 14 | Mobi Ikegwuruka | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-1 | 12.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.6% | |
| 6 | Marcus Johnson | F | Sr | 6'7" | 14-0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 48.5% | 35.5% | 2.2 | 66.7% | 27.6% | |
| 23 | Stephen Osei | F | So | 6'10" | 3-0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 34.0% | |
| 2 | Exavier Wilson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Campbell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | DJ Smith | G | Sr | 5'11" | 34-33 | 34.4 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 49.1% | 33.9% | 8.5 | 83.6% | 31.0% | |
| 7 | Cam Gregory | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 52.9% | 33.1% | 3.7 | 76.5% | 14.3% | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Johnson | G | So | 6'4" | 34-31 | 32.4 | 15.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 51.9% | 37.4% | 3.9 | 86.5% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Dovydas Butka | F | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 33.9 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 51.0% | 16.7% | 1.0 | 55.3% | 26.2% | |
| 1 | Tasos Cook | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-8 | 24.7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 50.3% | 35.8% | 3.3 | 79.2% | 17.0% | |
| 11 | Muneer Newton | F | Sr | 6'5" | 34-27 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 70.7% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 48.4% | 17.6% | |
| 0 | Chris Fields Jr. | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-5 | 18.6 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 46.6% | 7.7% | 0.5 | 64.6% | 34.2% | |
| 22 | Dominykas Butka | G | Fr | 6'6" | 22-0 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.4 | 62.5% | 17.5% | |
| 5 | Enoch Kalambay | G | Sr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.0% | 12.5% | 1.6 | — | 22.4% | |
| 4 | Broc Bidwell | G | Sr | 6'0" | 11-0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 61.1% | 42.9% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 20.3% | |
| 15 | Terren Frank | F | Sr | 6'8" | 6-1 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 18.2% | |
| 32 | Daniel Marcellinus | F | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 9.8% | |
| 12 | Israel Yaw | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Klairus Amir | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Campbell
Against the spread
Season
18-13-1
Home
6-5-1
Road
9-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
6-6
Road
9-7
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −4.3
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Monmouth | N | L 64–74 | +1.5 | L−8.5 | 152.0 | U138 | 95.2 | 110.1 | 67.2 |
| Mar 8 | UNC Wilmington | N | W 85–70 | +7.5 | W+22.5 | 149.0 | O155 | 118.7 | 97.8 | 71.6 |
| Mar 7 | Stony Brook | N | W 96–89 | −3.0 | W+4.0 | 147.0 | O185 | 132.8 | 123.2 | 72.3 |
| Mar 3 | NC A&T | H | W 90–72 | −7.5 | W+10.5 | 155.0 | O162 | 127.3 | 101.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 28 | Towson | A | L 67–71 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 141.5 | U138 | 113.2 | 120.0 | 59.2 |
| Feb 26 | Drexel | A | L 60–65 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 141.5 | U125 | 94.2 | 102.0 | 63.7 |
| Feb 21 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 68–73 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 150.5 | U141 | 99.5 | 106.8 | 68.3 |
| Feb 19 | William & Mary | H | W 84–83 | +2.5 | W+3.5 | 167.5 | U167 | 113.1 | 111.8 | 74.3 |
| Feb 15 | Charleston | H | L 57–62 | −2.5 | L−7.5 | 160.0 | U119 | 93.8 | 102.0 | 60.8 |
| Feb 7 | NC A&T | A | W 79–71 | −3.0 | W+5.0 | 159.5 | U150 | 112.6 | 101.2 | 70.2 |
Kansas St
Against the spread
Season
12-20
Home
5-13
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.4
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
9-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +5.0
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | BYU | N | L 91–105 | +11.0 | L−3.0 | 168.5 | O196 | 117.0 | 135.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 7 | #14Kansas | A | L 85–104 | +17.5 | L−1.5 | 157.0 | O189 | 108.9 | 133.2 | 78.0 |
| Mar 3 | West Virginia | H | W 65–63 | +4.0 | W+6.0 | 141.5 | U128 | 97.4 | 94.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 28 | TCU | H | L 68–77 | +3.0 | L−6.0 | 159.5 | U145 | 94.3 | 106.8 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | Colorado | A | L 70–79 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 163.0 | U149 | 87.0 | 98.2 | 80.4 |
| Feb 21 | #13Texas Tech | A | L 72–100 | +12.5 | L−15.5 | 158.5 | O172 | 104.3 | 144.9 | 69.0 |
| Feb 17 | Baylor | H | W 90–74 | +3.5 | W+19.5 | 159.0 | O164 | 111.1 | 91.3 | 81.0 |
| Feb 14 | #3Houston | A | L 64–78 | +22.0 | W+8.0 | 146.0 | U142 | 84.7 | 103.2 | 75.6 |
| Feb 11 | Cincinnati | H | L 62–91 | +2.5 | L−26.5 | 147.0 | O153 | 88.0 | 129.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 7 | TCU | A | L 82–84 | +10.0 | W+8.0 | 154.0 | O166 | 114.8 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCampbellKansas St
Efficiency
109.3
110.1
110.9
107.7
69.9
71.8
—
—
Shooting
50.1%
53.3%
51.2%
52.4%
32.3%
36.4%
72.5%
71.0%
43.5%
26.9%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
17.4%
17.0%
17.1%
33.5%
29.2%
32.0%
33.9%
9.7%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
Style
36.9%
40.9%
46.3%
44.5%
16.1%
18.3%
44.9%
57.7%
22.5%
29.0%
Roster
3.22
3.11
6'4.2"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCampbell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Kansas St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.