CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteTD Arena, Charleston, SCCharleston Classic
Northwestern
Efficiency #78
2025-26: 15-19 · 7-16 conf
vs
Virginia Tech
Efficiency #61
2025-26: 19-13 · 8-11 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · 3:00 PM ET
73.0
win 47%
Projected
73.9
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: VT −1.0 · total 146.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia Tech 68.2, Northwestern 66.9 → 66.7 possessions
−3.4
Virginia Tech offense vs Northwestern defense
+1.5
Northwestern offense vs Virginia Tech defense
+0.5
Projected total
146.9
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Virginia Tech offense vs Northwestern defense
+1.5
Northwestern offense vs Virginia Tech defense
−0.5
Virginia Tech by 1.0
1.0
Northwestern side ◂▸ Virginia Tech side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.8 against a projected 146.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia Tech.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Virginia Tech is the faster team (68.0, #201 of 365) and Northwestern the slower (65.3, #322). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.9
model
Projected team totals
73.0 / 73.9
Northwestern / Virginia Tech
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.9#299
Northwestern
68.2#191
Virginia Tech
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Virginia Tech averages 68.0 possessions per 40, Northwestern 65.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNorthwestern
Where Northwestern scores: ball control
Northwestern turns it over on 13.0% of possessions (#7); Virginia Tech forces turnovers on 17.2% of opponent possessions (#133). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia Tech's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Northwestern at about 35.1% of its shots from three, Virginia Tech about 40.1%.
AdvantageVirginia Tech
Where Virginia Tech scores: the offensive glass
Virginia Tech rebounds 31.9% of its own misses (#129); Northwestern lets opponents grab 34.7% of their own misses (#332). Expect about 33.5%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashNorthwestern
Style clash: ball movement
Northwestern assists on 65.8% of its made baskets; Virginia Tech breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 57.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Northwestern has the ball
OffenseVirginia Tech allowsvs D1 avg
51.7% #159
50.8% #147
+0.1 pt/100
13.0% #7
17.2% #133
+2.3 pt/100
28.1% #260
32.6% #284
-0.3 pt/100
33.9% #213
28.8% #41
-0.5 pt/100
75.1% #80
—
+0.2 pt/100
Northwestern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100
Virginia Tech has the ball
OffenseNorthwestern allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #134
51.0% #157
+0.6 pt/100
14.9% #61
17.5% #119
+0.7 pt/100
31.9% #129
34.7% #332
+1.9 pt/100
34.0% #209
34.8% #172
-0.1 pt/100
74.3% #116
—
+0.2 pt/100
Virginia Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNorthwesternoffense vsVirginia Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Northwestern shoots
35.0
7.2
23.9
34.0
Virginia Tech allows
38.1
5.5
16.6
39.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.4%#47 | 61.0%#269 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#233 | 41.4%#222 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.6%#66 | 42.1%#307 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#232 | 30.6%#26 | 33.7% |
Virginia Techoffense vsNorthwesterndefense
Share of shots by zone
Virginia Tech shoots
35.1
6.7
18.3
39.9
Northwestern allows
37.9
6.1
16.5
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.6%#59 | 60.5%#248 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.3%#95 | 33.6%#38 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 32.4%#339 | 38.8%#190 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.5%#88 | 33.4%#145 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNorthwestern
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#260
Def reb %
65.3%
#332
Turnover %
13.0%
#7
Forced TO %
17.5%
#119
FT rate
33.9%
#213
FT allowed
34.8%
#172
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+2.6
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Virginia Tech
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#59 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#129
Def reb %
67.4%
#284
Turnover %
14.9%
#61
Forced TO %
17.2%
#133
FT rate
34.0%
#209
FT allowed
28.8%
#41
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Virginia Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#59 of 365) to Northwestern’s +0.9 (#140).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Northwestern2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jayden Reid | G | Jr | 5'10" | 34-28 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 44.5% | 31.7% | 3.0 | 82.0% | 28.3% | |
| 8 | Tre Singleton | F | Fr | 6'8" | 34-31 | 25.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 1.6 | 73.8% | 19.5% | |
| 44 | Angelo Ciaravino | G | So | 6'6" | 33-18 | 22.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 54.6% | 25.6% | 1.3 | 58.3% | 17.0% | |
| 3 | Jake West | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-17 | 21.8 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 49.4% | 36.4% | 2.3 | 77.4% | 17.4% | |
| 22 | Arrinten Page | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-16 | 22.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 57.2% | 25.0% | 1.5 | 65.6% | 26.2% | |
| 11 | Jordan Clayton | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-10 | 18.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 57.7% | 41.0% | 2.5 | 53.3% | 12.9% | |
| 1 | Tyler Kropp | F | Fr | 6'9" | 31-10 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 46.1% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 92.3% | 16.6% | |
| 10 | Max Green | G | So | 6'6" | 23-4 | 14.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 48.5% | 33.8% | 3.0 | 60.0% | 19.5% | |
| 20 | Justin Mullins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 24-3 | 13.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 32.3% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 16.4% | |
| 24 | K.J. Windham | G | So | 6'3" | 13-0 | 13.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 2.8 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 13 | Phoenix Gill | G | Fr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 18.6% | |
| 54 | Gus Hurlburt | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 26.4% | |
| 43 | Blake Smith | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Virginia Tech2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ben Hammond | G | So | 5'11" | 32-18 | 31.5 | 13.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 51.0% | 43.1% | 3.2 | 86.5% | 24.3% | |
| 13 | Amani Hansberry | F | Jr | 6'8" | 30-30 | 30.7 | 14.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 54.5% | 35.4% | 3.2 | 73.6% | 27.8% | |
| 0 | Jailen Bedford | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 26.0 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 48.3% | 35.9% | 4.7 | 72.6% | 27.8% | |
| 2 | Jaden Schutt | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-5 | 24.8 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 54.4% | 38.5% | 5.3 | 86.2% | 17.0% | |
| 32 | Christian Gurdak | C | Fr | 6'10" | 31-10 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 63.2% | — | 0.0 | 69.6% | 16.8% | |
| 10 | Tyler Johnson | G | So | 6'5" | 17-13 | 26.2 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 62.5% | 41.5% | 2.4 | 67.7% | 15.5% | |
| 77 | Antonio Dorn | C | Fr | 7'0" | 24-5 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 64.3% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.8% | |
| 4 | Izaiah Pasha | G | So | 6'5" | 18-0 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 36.3% | 14.3% | 0.4 | 53.8% | 23.1% | |
| 5 | Sin'Cere Jones | F | Fr | 6'7" | 11-0 | 6.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 33.3% | 11.5% | |
| 7 | Brett Freeman | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Solomon Davis | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Northwestern2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jayden Reid | G | Jr | 5'10" | 34-28 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 44.5% | 31.7% | 3.0 | 82.0% | 28.3% | |
| 8 | Tre Singleton | F | Fr | 6'8" | 34-31 | 25.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 1.6 | 73.8% | 19.5% | |
| 44 | Angelo Ciaravino | G | So | 6'6" | 33-18 | 22.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 54.6% | 25.6% | 1.3 | 58.3% | 17.0% | |
| 3 | Jake West | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-17 | 21.8 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 49.4% | 36.4% | 2.3 | 77.4% | 17.4% | |
| 22 | Arrinten Page | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-16 | 22.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 57.2% | 25.0% | 1.5 | 65.6% | 26.2% | |
| 11 | Jordan Clayton | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-10 | 18.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 57.7% | 41.0% | 2.5 | 53.3% | 12.9% | |
| 1 | Tyler Kropp | F | Fr | 6'9" | 31-10 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 46.1% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 92.3% | 16.6% | |
| 10 | Max Green | G | So | 6'6" | 23-4 | 14.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 48.5% | 33.8% | 3.0 | 60.0% | 19.5% | |
| 20 | Justin Mullins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 24-3 | 13.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 32.3% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 16.4% | |
| 24 | K.J. Windham | G | So | 6'3" | 13-0 | 13.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 2.8 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 13 | Phoenix Gill | G | Fr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 18.6% | |
| 54 | Gus Hurlburt | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 26.4% | |
| 43 | Blake Smith | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Northwestern
Against the spread
Season
18-16
Home
7-10
Road
6-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.8
Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 7 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-19
Home
8-9
Road
4-7
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −4.5
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #18Purdue | N | L 68–81 | +13.5 | W+0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 114.4 | 136.3 | 59.4 |
| Mar 11 | Indiana | N | W 74–61 | +6.0 | W+19.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 121.9 | 100.5 | 60.7 |
| Mar 10 | Penn State | N | W 76–66 | −5.0 | W+5.0 | 144.5 | U142 | 119.6 | 103.9 | 63.6 |
| Mar 7 | Minnesota | A | L 66–67 | +4.0 | W+3.0 | 133.5 | U133 | 119.7 | 121.5 | 55.1 |
| Mar 4 | #15Purdue | H | L 66–70 | +10.5 | W+6.5 | 145.5 | U136 | 114.9 | 121.8 | 57.5 |
| Feb 28 | Oregon | H | W 63–62 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 142.5 | U125 | 98.9 | 97.3 | 63.7 |
| Feb 24 | Indiana | A | W 72–68 | +8.5 | W+12.5 | 146.0 | U140 | 117.8 | 111.3 | 61.1 |
| Feb 18 | Maryland | H | W 78–74 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 118.3 | 112.2 | 65.9 |
| Feb 14 | #7Nebraska | A | L 49–68 | +13.5 | L−5.5 | 145.5 | U117 | 76.0 | 105.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 11 | #2Michigan | H | L 75–87 | +15.0 | W+3.0 | 153.5 | O162 | 100.4 | 116.4 | 74.7 |
Virginia Tech
Against the spread
Season
17-14-1
Home
8-9
Road
8-1-1
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover +1.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
8-9
Road
6-4
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +2.0
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Wake Forest | N | L 89–95 OT | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 151.5 | O184 | 118.6 | 126.6 | 75.0 |
| Mar 7 | #13Virginia | A | L 72–76 | +12.0 | W+8.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 108.5 | 114.6 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | Boston College | H | W 72–63 | −11.5 | L−2.5 | 143.0 | U135 | 108.8 | 95.2 | 66.2 |
| Feb 28 | #18North Carolina | A | L 82–89 | +7.0 | P0.0 | 150.0 | O171 | 118.4 | 128.5 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Wake Forest | H | W 82–63 | −4.0 | W+15.0 | 148.5 | U145 | 135.3 | 104.0 | 60.6 |
| Feb 17 | Miami | A | L 66–67 | +8.5 | W+7.5 | 148.0 | U133 | 105.1 | 106.7 | 62.8 |
| Feb 14 | Florida St | H | L 69–92 | −4.0 | L−27.0 | 156.5 | O161 | 106.8 | 142.4 | 64.6 |
| Feb 11 | #20Clemson | A | W 76–66 | +8.0 | W+18.0 | 139.0 | O142 | 117.2 | 101.8 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | NC State | A | L 73–82 | +10.0 | W+1.0 | 152.5 | O155 | 101.0 | 113.5 | 72.3 |
| Jan 31 | #4Duke | H | L 58–72 | +13.5 | L−0.5 | 148.0 | U130 | 100.7 | 125.0 | 57.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorthwesternVirginia Tech
Efficiency
112.5
113.1
106.2
105.3
66.9
68.2
—
—
Shooting
51.7%
52.2%
52.9%
51.5%
33.0%
35.5%
75.1%
74.3%
33.9%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
13.0%
14.9%
17.5%
17.2%
28.1%
31.9%
34.7%
32.6%
7.3%
7.8%
6.4%
9.3%
Style
34.0%
39.7%
44.0%
42.1%
15.6%
10.6%
65.8%
52.4%
31.7%
27.6%
Roster
2.14
2.51
6'4.9"
6'5"
82.8%
74.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorthwestern
Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 74.0%
Lost
- Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Blake Smith no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Virginia Tech
Returning minutes: 74.9%Returning production: 74.4%
Lost
- Neo Avdalas 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Tobi Lawal 20.9 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Brett Freeman no D1 minutes last season
- Solomon Davis no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 75% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.