CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceState Farm Center, Champaign, IL

E Illinois

Efficiency #317

2025-26: 13-20 · 9-13 conf

Illinois

Efficiency #4

2025-26: 28-9 · 15-6 conf

Fri, Nov 20 · TBD

59.6

win 2%

Projected

83.4

win 98%

No line posted yet.

Model: ILL −23.8 · total 143.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Illinois 67.0, E Illinois 67.2 → 65.8 possessions

−5.4

Illinois offense vs E Illinois defense

+10.1

E Illinois offense vs Illinois defense

−9.9

Projected total

143.0

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Illinois offense vs E Illinois defense

+10.1

E Illinois offense vs Illinois defense

+9.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Illinois by 23.8

23.8

E Illinois side ◂▸ Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, E Illinois is the faster team (66.2, #286 of 365) and Illinois the slower (65.7, #310). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.0

model

Projected team totals

59.6 / 83.4

E Illinois / Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.2#277

E Illinois

67.0#289

Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageE Illinois

Where E Illinois struggles: shooting

E Illinois shoots an effective 45.7% (#353); Illinois allows 47.3% (#26). Expect about 46.0%, 5.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -7.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIllinois

Where Illinois scores: the offensive glass

Illinois rebounds 39.2% of its own misses (#3); E Illinois lets opponents grab 35.2% of their own misses (#343). Expect about 38.9%, 8.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Illinois averages 65.7 possessions per 40, E Illinois 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseIllinois

Illinois's shot-blocking

Illinois ranks #26 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of E Illinois's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

TurnoversE Illinois

E Illinois protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for E Illinois's offense.

GlassE Illinois

E Illinois gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against E Illinois's offense.

E Illinois has the ball

OffenseIllinois allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #353

47.3% #26

-7.5 pt/100

18.6% #303

11.6% #365

+2.8 pt/100

28.2% #256

26.7% #28

-2.0 pt/100

33.5% #224

19.7% #1

-1.2 pt/100

74.4% #107

—

+0.2 pt/100

E Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.8 pts/100

Illinois has the ball

OffenseE Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #46

50.8% #146

+2.4 pt/100

13.1% #10

19.3% #39

+0.6 pt/100

39.2% #3

35.2% #343

+5.2 pt/100

33.2% #232

35.3% #187

-0.1 pt/100

78.0% #17

—

+0.5 pt/100

Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinoisoffense vsIllinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

E Illinois shoots

39.9

7.2

23.4

29.5

Illinois allows

27.0

7.0

21.9

44.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.1%#339	59.4%#208	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.8%#334	37.7%#129	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#323	35.8%#101	38.0%
Three	31.7%#292	31.3%#38	33.7%

Illinoisoffense vsE Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Illinois shoots

32.9

6.9

10.2

49.9

E Illinois allows

39.2

5.2

14.1

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.5%#11	60.7%#257	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#141	37.0%#111	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.1%#181	33.5%#37	38.0%
Three	34.5%#142	31.7%#50	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinois

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#271 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#256

Def reb %

64.8%

#343

Turnover %

18.6%

#303

Forced TO %

19.3%

#39

FT rate

33.5%

#224

FT allowed

35.3%

#187

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed0.0

Illinois

+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#9 of 365

Off reb %

39.2%

Def reb %

73.3%

#28

Turnover %

13.1%

#10

Forced TO %

11.6%

#365

FT rate

33.2%

#232

FT allowed

19.7%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−3.5

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+4.0

Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#9 of 365) to E Illinois’s −2.0 (#271).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	David Mirkovic	F	Fr	6'9"	37-36	29.5	13.3	8.0	2.6	1.9	56.2%	37.5%	4.1	75.7%	27.3%
2	Andrej Stojakovic	G	Jr	6'7"	34-21	26.3	13.5	4.5	1.0	1.3	53.0%	24.4%	2.4	80.5%	30.0%
13	Tomislav Ivisic	C	Jr	7'1"	34-33	25.4	10.4	5.6	1.6	1.4	57.6%	31.3%	4.7	77.8%	24.5%
15	Jake Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	37-22	19.6	5.4	2.2	0.7	0.2	61.2%	40.6%	3.6	75.0%	13.9%
44	Zvonimir Ivisic	C	Jr	7'2"	37-4	17.2	6.4	4.5	0.3	0.5	59.1%	28.0%	2.7	69.2%	20.2%
77	Mihailo Petrovic	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	6.1	1.7	0.8	1.2	0.7	36.1%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	27.7%
1	Brandon Lee	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	4.8	1.9	0.4	0.2	0.3	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	93.3%	23.7%
31	Jason Jakstys	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	5.2	1.3	1.9	0.2	0.0	80.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	9.3%
8	Blake Fagbemi	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	3.5	0.2	1.0	0.4	0.2	20.0%	—	0.0	—	10.0%
5	AJ Redd	G	Sr	6'3"	11-0	2.4	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	32.6%
20	Ty Rodgers	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

E Illinois

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

5-7

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.2

Covered 2 straightCovered 6 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

7-5

Road

6-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.6

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	L 63–66	+8.0	W+5.0	126.0	O129	101.8	106.7	61.9
Mar 4	SIUEAdjEM #229	N	W 77–71 OT	+4.5	W+10.5	128.0	O148	111.5	102.8	69.0
Feb 28	SIUEAdjEM #229	A	L 50–77	+6.0	L−21.0	130.0	U127	83.0	127.9	60.2
Feb 26	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	A	W 71–67	+7.5	W+11.5	144.0	U138	102.7	96.9	69.2
Feb 21	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	L 68–70	−4.5	L−6.5	136.0	O138	103.9	106.9	65.5
Feb 19	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	L 70–73	+1.0	L−2.0	136.5	O143	105.5	110.0	66.3
Feb 14	Little RockAdjEM #300	H	W 78–72	+1.5	W+7.5	135.5	O150	117.5	108.4	66.4
Feb 10	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	L 70–79	−4.5	L−13.5	133.0	O149	97.2	109.7	72.0
Feb 7	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	A	W 60–54	+4.5	W+10.5	140.5	U114	93.0	83.7	64.5
Feb 5	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	A	L 68–77	+9.5	W+0.5	145.5	U145	98.6	111.6	69.0

Illinois

Against the spread

Season

19-15-2

Home

7-7-2

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-22

Home

5-11

Road

7-3

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.1

Under 4 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#2UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 62–71	−1.5	L−10.5	139.0	U133	97.6	111.8	63.5
Mar 28	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 71–59	−7.0	W+5.0	138.5	U130	129.5	107.6	54.8
Mar 26	#2HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 65–55	+2.5	W+12.5	139.5	U120	111.2	94.1	58.5
Mar 21	#11VCUAdjEM #39	N	W 76–55	−12.0	W+9.0	150.5	U131	115.2	83.4	66.0
Mar 19	#14PennAdjEM #162	N	W 105–70	−25.5	W+9.5	151.0	O175	154.5	103.0	68.0
Mar 13	#23WisconsinAdjEM #28	N	L 88–91 OT	−8.0	L−11.0	157.0	O179	117.0	121.0	75.2
Mar 8	MarylandAdjEM #198	A	W 78–72	−14.0	L−8.0	145.0	O150	127.4	117.6	61.2
Mar 3	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 80–54	−17.5	W+8.5	147.0	U134	116.9	78.9	68.5
Feb 27	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 70–84	+2.0	L−12.0	159.5	U154	105.4	126.5	66.4
Feb 21	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 94–95 OT	−6.0	L−7.0	147.0	O189	129.0	130.4	72.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

E IllinoisIllinois

Efficiency

100.7

122.5

109.7

101.2

67.2

67.0

—

Shooting

45.7%

54.7%

44.9%

57.5%

31.7%

34.5%

74.4%

78.0%

33.5%

33.2%

Ball control & glass

18.6%

13.1%

19.3%

11.6%

28.2%

39.2%

35.2%

26.7%

9.5%

8.2%

11.7%

8.2%

Style

29.9%

49.7%

44.3%

39.7%

18.7%

6.8%

48.7%

50.0%

32.6%

29.2%

Roster

3.09

2.40

6'4.6"

6'9.3"

—

60.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

E Illinois

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Illinois

Returning minutes: 60.1%Returning production: 60.0%

Lost

Keaton Wagler 34.0 mpg, 17.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kylan Boswell 24.4 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ben Humrichous 22.5 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.