CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUniversity Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Saint Louis
Efficiency #20
2025-26: 29-6 · 16-4 conf
@
Saint Mary's
Efficiency #23
2025-26: 27-6 · 16-3 conf
Fri, Nov 20 · TBD
73.8
win 38%
Projected
77.3
win 62%
No line posted yet.
Model: SMC −3.5 · total 151.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Mary's 66.7, Saint Louis 70.7 → 69.2 possessions
+1.8
Saint Mary's offense vs Saint Louis defense
+0.3
Saint Louis offense vs Saint Mary's defense
+0.7
Projected total
151.1
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Saint Mary's offense vs Saint Louis defense
+0.3
Saint Louis offense vs Saint Mary's defense
−0.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Saint Mary's by 3.5
3.5
Saint Louis side ◂▸ Saint Mary's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.0 against a projected 151.1, and the margin steps add to +3.6 against +3.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Mary's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Saint Louis is the faster team (72.1, #22 of 365) and Saint Mary's the slower (66.2, #288). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.1
model
Projected team totals
73.8 / 77.3
Saint Louis / Saint Mary's
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.7#21
Saint Louis
66.7#305
Saint Mary's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSaint Louis
Where Saint Louis scores: shooting
Saint Louis shoots an effective 59.7% (#2); Saint Mary's allows 46.8% (#19). Expect about 53.9%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSaint Mary's
Where Saint Mary's struggles: shooting
Saint Mary's shoots an effective 52.8% (#109); Saint Louis allows 45.2% (#3). Expect about 49.1%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Saint Mary's averages 66.2 possessions per 40, Saint Louis 72.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashSaint Mary's
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Saint Mary's (#11 in offensive rebounding) against Saint Louis (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.8%. Historically Saint Mary's's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
ClashSaint Louis
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Saint Louis (#11 in 2-point shooting) against Saint Mary's (#22 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 53.7%. Historically Saint Louis's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's's defense, Saint Louis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Saint Louis at about 42.4% of its shots from three, Saint Mary's about 38.6%.
Saint Louis has the ball
OffenseSaint Mary's allowsvs D1 avg
59.7% #2
46.8% #19
+3.7 pt/100
17.2% #217
15.2% #270
+0.9 pt/100
30.7% #173
23.9% #4
-1.8 pt/100
33.7% #221
25.7% #12
-0.8 pt/100
74.1% #128
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Louis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100
Saint Mary's has the ball
OffenseSaint Louis allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #109
45.2% #3
-3.1 pt/100
16.8% #189
15.9% #224
+0.6 pt/100
37.5% #11
27.2% #43
+2.1 pt/100
35.5% #162
37.1% #242
+0.2 pt/100
80.3% #2
—
+0.7 pt/100
Saint Mary's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Louisoffense vsSaint Mary'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Louis shoots
Saint Mary's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.9%#7654.4%#4758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.2%#9946.4%#32439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.8%#31733.7%#4338.0%
Three39.9%#231.3%#4033.7%
Saint Mary'soffense vsSaint Louisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Mary's shoots
Saint Louis allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.4%#21548.0%#258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.2%#11735.0%#5739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.5%#25337.0%#13238.0%
Three38.7%#730.3%#1433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Louis
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#196 of 365
Off reb %
30.7%
#173
Def reb %
72.8%
#43
Turnover %
17.2%
#217
Forced TO %
15.9%
#224
FT rate
33.7%
#221
FT allowed
37.1%
#242
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Saint Mary's
+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#13 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#11
Def reb %
76.1%
#4
Turnover %
16.8%
#189
Forced TO %
15.2%
#270
FT rate
35.5%
#162
FT allowed
25.7%
#12
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+2.2
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed+2.4

Saint Mary's has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#13 of 365) to Saint Louis’s −0.4 (#196).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Saint Louis2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Quentin JonesGJr6'5"35-3326.59.13.93.01.952.3%36.2%2.780.0%20.8%
3Trey GreenGSo6'0"34-3023.610.72.91.70.764.0%44.2%6.186.1%20.7%
9Ishan SharmaFSo6'5"35-222.29.12.71.50.561.6%41.7%5.586.0%19.0%
4Amari McCottryGSo6'6"34-3122.910.55.32.92.455.1%29.0%1.858.2%28.7%
0Kellen ThamesGJr6'6"33-217.19.74.71.81.365.8%25.0%0.462.8%28.3%
25Paul OtienoFSr6'9"35-415.35.33.90.90.660.0%66.7%0.177.5%17.2%
15Jax KerrFFr6'11"17-06.82.92.10.20.443.0%18.5%1.663.6%28.8%
24Cam HutsonGFr6'5"18-05.41.80.90.20.839.3%12.5%0.971.4%26.8%
5Jaden SchertzGJr5'11"12-13.20.70.50.10.242.9%0.0%0.150.0%15.5%
12Isaac HolmesGJr6'4"13-02.80.80.70.30.041.7%22.2%0.750.0%18.7%
2Badara DiakiteFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Dylan WarlickFSo6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Kalu AnyaFSr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Luke LaczkowskiGFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Saint LouisSaint Mary's
Efficiency
117.2
114.9
102.5
100.8
70.7
66.7
—
—
Shooting
59.7%
52.8%
59.5%
49.8%
39.9%
38.7%
74.1%
80.3%
33.7%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
16.8%
15.9%
15.2%
30.7%
37.5%
27.2%
23.9%
10.1%
8.4%
11.2%
8.8%
Style
45.1%
36.4%
44.4%
40.9%
18.7%
10.5%
60.4%
57.8%
39.3%
29.3%
Roster
2.52
1.88
6'5"
6'6.2"
66.8%
91.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Saint Louis
Returning minutes: 66.8%Returning production: 64.6%
Lost
  • Robbie Avila 26.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Dion Brown 23.7 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Brady Dunlap 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
  • Dylan Warlick no D1 minutes last season
  • Luke Laczkowski no D1 minutes last season
  • Kalu Anya no D1 minutes last season
  • Badara Diakite no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 67% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Saint Mary's
Returning minutes: 91.9%Returning production: 91.8%
Lost
  • Harry Wessels 16.2 mpg, 4.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Trent MacLean no D1 minutes last season
  • Jazz Gardner no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.