CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteKoessler Athletic Center, Buffalo, NYQueen City Classic

W Illinois

Efficiency #362

2025-26: 5-26 · 1-19 conf

UAlbany

Efficiency #306

2025-26: 11-21 · 7-10 conf

Fri, Nov 20 · TBD

68.6

win 29%

Projected

75.1

win 71%

No line posted yet.

Model: UALB −6.5 · total 143.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UAlbany 67.0, W Illinois 67.7 → 66.4 possessions

−4.2

UAlbany offense vs W Illinois defense

+3.1

W Illinois offense vs UAlbany defense

−3.5

Projected total

143.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UAlbany offense vs W Illinois defense

+3.1

W Illinois offense vs UAlbany defense

+3.5

UAlbany by 6.5

6.5

W Illinois side ◂▸ UAlbany side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.6 against +6.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UAlbany.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Illinois is the faster team (67.3, #230 of 365) and UAlbany the slower (65.6, #311). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.6

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 75.1

W Illinois / UAlbany

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.7#231

W Illinois

67.0#291

UAlbany

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageW Illinois

Where W Illinois struggles: shooting

W Illinois shoots an effective 44.5% (#361); UAlbany allows 53.2% (#275). Expect about 48.3%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

UAlbany averages 65.6 possessions per 40, W Illinois 67.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageUAlbany

Where UAlbany scores: the offensive glass

UAlbany rebounds 32.7% of its own misses (#99); W Illinois lets opponents grab 34.8% of their own misses (#334). Expect about 34.1%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (W Illinois) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Illinois at about 35.2% of its shots from three, UAlbany about 34.9%.

ClashUAlbany

Style match: paint scoring

UAlbany scores 49.5% of its points in the paint; W Illinois gives up 48.8% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.5% — both habits push the same way.

W Illinois has the ball

OffenseUAlbany allowsvs D1 avg

44.5% #361

53.2% #275

-4.2 pt/100

17.5% #236

15.8% #230

+0.3 pt/100

27.0% #293

32.4% #277

-0.9 pt/100

37.7% #108

35.7% #202

+0.2 pt/100

66.2% #351

—

-0.5 pt/100

W Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.1 pts/100

UAlbany has the ball

OffenseW Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

51.3% #182

54.2% #303

+2.2 pt/100

18.5% #300

14.9% #297

+0.2 pt/100

32.7% #99

34.8% #334

+2.3 pt/100

24.9% #364

34.8% #173

-0.6 pt/100

65.9% #354

—

-0.6 pt/100

UAlbany net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

W Illinoisoffense vsUAlbanydefense

Share of shots by zone

W Illinois shoots

39.5

9.2

18.3

33.0

UAlbany allows

40.4

5.2

13.7

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.3%#353	56.9%#110	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	29.0%#352	41.3%#219	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.0%#293	39.6%#225	38.0%
Three	30.9%#322	36.0%#302	33.7%

UAlbanyoffense vsW Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

UAlbany shoots

42.2

6.8

13.1

37.9

W Illinois allows

44.5

7.7

13.7

34.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#228	62.3%#306	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	49.0%#14	40.5%#200	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#146	33.7%#44	38.0%
Three	32.6%#248	35.6%#288	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

W Illinois

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#311 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#293

Def reb %

65.2%

#334

Turnover %

17.5%

#236

Forced TO %

14.9%

#297

FT rate

37.7%

#108

FT allowed

34.8%

#173

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.4

Ball security−0.5

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.1

UAlbany

−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365

Off reb %

32.7%

#99

Def reb %

67.6%

#277

Turnover %

18.5%

#300

Forced TO %

15.8%

#230

FT rate

24.9%

#364

FT allowed

35.7%

#202

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−2.6

Foul shots allowed−0.1

W Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.4 (#311 of 365) to UAlbany’s −4.3 (#336).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

W Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Lucas Lorenzen	G	Jr	6'4"	31-30	32.9	14.7	4.3	0.9	1.8	48.0%	31.5%	6.9	80.2%	28.5%
12	Isaiah Griffin	F	Sr	6'6"	31-20	28.4	10.6	3.4	1.1	1.6	42.0%	33.0%	2.8	72.0%	26.6%
13	Makai Kvamme	G	Fr	6'2"	31-24	25.3	5.0	2.8	2.7	1.3	37.0%	17.2%	0.9	48.0%	18.1%
15	Francis Okwuosah	F	Sr	6'6"	31-19	22.0	7.4	4.0	0.5	0.9	53.0%	37.8%	3.8	70.8%	20.8%
45	Antwaun Massey	F	Sr	6'8"	26-23	22.6	8.0	3.5	0.9	1.8	49.7%	66.7%	0.1	48.2%	26.0%
22	Goanar Biliew	F	Sr	6'8"	31-18	17.3	4.1	2.2	0.2	0.9	44.6%	38.9%	0.6	56.5%	17.7%
5	Karyiek Dixon	F	Sr	6'5"	20-14	25.3	8.3	7.2	0.7	0.8	53.3%	9.1%	0.6	72.0%	19.3%
0	Tyran Cook	G	So	6'2"	27-5	15.8	4.2	1.6	1.3	0.8	40.6%	16.7%	0.7	84.6%	20.2%
23	Danny Stephens	G	Fr	6'5"	15-1	17.2	5.5	2.2	0.5	1.1	42.8%	26.8%	2.7	73.9%	23.9%
2	Marcus Pigram	G	Jr	6'4"	17-0	12.2	3.3	1.1	0.6	0.6	40.2%	27.3%	1.9	70.0%	21.9%
11	Ifiok Peter	F	So	6'6"	23-0	6.7	2.0	1.2	0.0	0.4	40.0%	—	0.0	52.8%	24.3%
50	Nick Hittle	F	Sr	6'10"	18-1	5.7	1.4	1.1	0.1	0.3	39.5%	100.0%	0.1	68.8%	18.7%
14	Steven Tipton	G	Sr	6'2"	14-0	4.3	1.3	0.8	0.1	0.4	46.7%	40.0%	0.4	100.0%	22.5%
10	Jake Edwards	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	2.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	5.0%
1	Jack Riley	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UAlbany2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Amir Lindsey	G	So	5'11"	31-31	37.6	17.9	3.3	4.9	2.0	51.7%	34.9%	5.6	79.2%	29.2%
00	Okechukwu Okeke	F	Sr	6'10"	32-25	29.8	10.8	7.3	0.9	2.2	69.3%	100.0%	0.0	56.5%	20.5%
5	Isaac Abidde	F	Sr	6'9"	32-29	25.3	9.4	4.4	0.6	1.3	56.1%	36.2%	4.0	65.0%	22.9%
11	Jaden Kempson	G	Jr	6'3"	24-20	31.0	10.2	4.4	3.0	2.0	43.1%	29.5%	3.3	62.2%	24.9%
14	Zacharie Matulu	G	So	6'4"	21-18	28.4	9.9	5.7	1.8	1.4	57.0%	36.0%	4.1	75.0%	21.0%
4	Miles Rose	G	So	6'4"	29-6	15.7	3.3	1.6	1.4	1.0	41.0%	33.3%	0.6	36.7%	19.6%
24	Tarique Foster	F	Jr	6'8"	22-8	20.3	5.9	2.2	0.9	0.9	48.8%	33.3%	4.1	64.7%	20.3%
13	Ma'Kye Taylor	F	So	6'7"	31-4	13.7	3.4	2.2	0.5	0.8	47.5%	9.1%	0.7	45.0%	19.0%
8	Nas Muhammad	G	Jr	6'1"	15-5	20.5	9.1	2.3	2.3	0.7	47.6%	34.2%	5.3	75.0%	27.0%
22	Abdoulaye Fall	G	Jr	6'10"	7-7	30.7	9.6	3.4	1.1	1.6	51.9%	31.8%	3.1	85.7%	20.8%
7	Ife West-Ingram	F	Jr	6'7"	9-1	14.3	6.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	72.6%	25.0%	0.4	50.0%	21.2%
25	Yaya Keita	C	Jr	6'9"	13-4	8.6	3.3	1.8	0.5	0.5	51.6%	—	0.0	78.6%	21.7%
10	Bautista Giralt	C	So	7'0"	15-2	2.9	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.2	62.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.4%
33	Sully Adewale	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Wilkin Paulino	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Will Richardson	G	Jr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

W Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Lucas Lorenzen	G	Jr	6'4"	31-30	32.9	14.7	4.3	0.9	1.8	48.0%	31.5%	6.9	80.2%	28.5%
12	Isaiah Griffin	F	Sr	6'6"	31-20	28.4	10.6	3.4	1.1	1.6	42.0%	33.0%	2.8	72.0%	26.6%
13	Makai Kvamme	G	Fr	6'2"	31-24	25.3	5.0	2.8	2.7	1.3	37.0%	17.2%	0.9	48.0%	18.1%
15	Francis Okwuosah	F	Sr	6'6"	31-19	22.0	7.4	4.0	0.5	0.9	53.0%	37.8%	3.8	70.8%	20.8%
45	Antwaun Massey	F	Sr	6'8"	26-23	22.6	8.0	3.5	0.9	1.8	49.7%	66.7%	0.1	48.2%	26.0%
22	Goanar Biliew	F	Sr	6'8"	31-18	17.3	4.1	2.2	0.2	0.9	44.6%	38.9%	0.6	56.5%	17.7%
5	Karyiek Dixon	F	Sr	6'5"	20-14	25.3	8.3	7.2	0.7	0.8	53.3%	9.1%	0.6	72.0%	19.3%
0	Tyran Cook	G	So	6'2"	27-5	15.8	4.2	1.6	1.3	0.8	40.6%	16.7%	0.7	84.6%	20.2%
23	Danny Stephens	G	Fr	6'5"	15-1	17.2	5.5	2.2	0.5	1.1	42.8%	26.8%	2.7	73.9%	23.9%
2	Marcus Pigram	G	Jr	6'4"	17-0	12.2	3.3	1.1	0.6	0.6	40.2%	27.3%	1.9	70.0%	21.9%
11	Ifiok Peter	F	So	6'6"	23-0	6.7	2.0	1.2	0.0	0.4	40.0%	—	0.0	52.8%	24.3%
50	Nick Hittle	F	Sr	6'10"	18-1	5.7	1.4	1.1	0.1	0.3	39.5%	100.0%	0.1	68.8%	18.7%
14	Steven Tipton	G	Sr	6'2"	14-0	4.3	1.3	0.8	0.1	0.4	46.7%	40.0%	0.4	100.0%	22.5%
10	Jake Edwards	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	2.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	5.0%
1	Jack Riley	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

W Illinois

Against the spread

Season

11-17

Home

3-9

Road

8-8

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −8.5

Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 2 of 10 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

12-15-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

6-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.2

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Feb 28	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	L 69–91	+11.5	L−10.5	150.5	O160	97.8	129.0	70.5
Feb 26	SIUEAdjEM #229	A	L 47–67	+14.0	L−6.0	135.5	U114	69.8	99.6	67.3
Feb 21	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	L 59–81	+8.0	L−14.0	144.0	U140	92.9	127.6	63.5
Feb 19	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	L 70–77	+2.5	L−4.5	140.0	O147	106.1	116.7	66.0
Feb 12	Little RockAdjEM #300	H	L 58–77	+7.5	L−11.5	142.0	U135	81.8	108.7	70.9
Feb 10	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	H	W 79–70	+4.5	W+13.5	133.0	O149	109.7	97.2	72.0
Feb 7	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	A	L 56–83	+14.5	L−12.5	151.0	U139	82.3	121.9	68.1
Feb 5	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	A	L 72–97	+9.5	L−15.5	144.0	O169	116.4	156.9	61.8
Jan 31	UT MartinAdjEM #182	H	L 44–84	+9.0	L−31.0	138.0	U128	67.9	129.6	64.8
Jan 29	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	H	L 74–78	+11.0	W+7.0	142.5	O152	106.9	112.7	69.2

UAlbany

Against the spread

Season

11-18

Home

4-5

Road

5-12

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +0.6

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-15

Home

4-5

Road

8-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.8

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 76–81	+3.0	L−2.0	147.5	O157	112.7	120.1	67.5
Mar 3	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 56–69	+9.0	L−4.0	137.0	U125	91.7	112.9	61.1
Feb 28	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 84–61	−3.0	W+20.0	139.0	O145	125.3	91.0	67.0
Feb 26	MaineAdjEM #335	H	L 59–70	−5.5	L−16.5	131.5	U129	98.0	116.3	60.2
Feb 21	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 62–66	+6.0	W+2.0	145.0	U128	104.1	110.9	59.5
Feb 19	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 81–63	+4.0	W+22.0	143.0	O144	136.0	105.7	59.6
Feb 14	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	A	W 77–74	−4.5	L−1.5	137.0	O151	112.4	108.0	68.5
Feb 7	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	L 79–89	−3.5	L−13.5	145.0	O168	113.6	128.0	69.5
Feb 5	BryantAdjEM #347	A	W 65–63	+1.0	W+3.0	134.0	U128	107.7	104.3	60.4
Jan 31	UMBCAdjEM #147	H	L 65–68	−1.0	L−4.0	140.5	U133	102.7	107.4	63.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

W IllinoisUAlbany

Efficiency

98.4

105.5

116.1

113.4

67.7

67.0

—

Shooting

44.5%

51.3%

43.5%

52.8%

30.9%

32.6%

66.2%

65.9%

37.7%

24.9%

Ball control & glass

17.5%

18.5%

14.9%

15.8%

27.0%

32.7%

34.8%

32.4%

10.0%

10.4%

11.1%

9.4%

Style

33.3%

37.6%

43.2%

49.5%

11.9%

13.7%

37.0%

48.9%

30.1%

26.3%

Roster

3.10

2.86

6'5.1"

6'5.2"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

W Illinois

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted W Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UAlbany

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.