Troy Trojans vs Valparaiso Beacons basketball preview & prediction

Sat, Nov 21 · 8:00 PM ET · Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FL (neutral site)

Pensacola InvitationalNeutral siteNon-conferencePensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FL
Troy
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #210
vs
Valparaiso
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #119
Sat, Nov 21 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Troy is the faster team (69.6, #218 of 365) and Valparaiso the slower (65.1, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#295
Troy
68.2#319
Valparaiso

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Valparaiso has the ball+4.7
Troy has the ball−8.9
Valparaiso has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.3% #31 · TROY forces 18.0% #179 · ~10 turnovers+2.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 27.6% #255 · TROY allows 43.6% #334+1.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 48.8% #64 · TROY allows 43.9% #258 · FT 64.4% #266+0.5
✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.7% #157 · TROY allows 48.8% #1470.0
Troy has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.5% #273 · VAL allows 42.2% #45−7.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.4% #316 · VAL allows 28.0% #124−3.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.4% #69 · VAL forces 18.4% #155 · ~11 turnovers+1.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.4% #260 · VAL allows 47.8% #287 · FT 62.9% #283−0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Troyoffense vsValparaisodefense
Share of shots by zone
Troy shoots
Valparaiso allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.4%#24556.3%#15358.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)0.0%#32361.5%#31538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)20.0%#27911.1%#3034.7%
Three29.6%#22521.4%#1832.5%
Valparaisooffense vsTroydefense
Share of shots by zone
Valparaiso shoots
Troy allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.6%#11359.6%#19258.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.2%#12333.3%#12538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)55.0%#3953.3%#31134.7%
Three25.6%#29526.9%#7932.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Troy
−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#287 of 365
Off reb %
22.4%
#316
Def reb %
56.4%
#334
Turnover %
14.4%
#69
Forced TO %
18.0%
#179
FT rate
29.4%
#260
FT allowed
43.9%
#258
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding−4.0
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed−1.5
Valparaiso
+4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#112 of 365
Off reb %
27.6%
#255
Def reb %
72.0%
#124
Turnover %
12.3%
#31
Forced TO %
18.4%
#155
FT rate
48.8%
#64
FT allowed
47.8%
#287
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+4.2
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+3.0
Foul shots allowed−2.6

Valparaiso has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.8 (#112 of 365) to Troy’s −8.0 (#287).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Troy2026-27 numbers · last game: Florida St, Nov 6
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
1GSr6'3"2-230.025—Started last9.04.55.52.543.8%50.0%2.057.1%23.5%
3GSr6'2"2-227.522—Started last14.07.01.01.057.5%33.3%4.555.6%27.8%
4GSr6'6"2-226.533—Started last4.52.51.50.030.0%21.4%7.0—16.2%
11FJr6'8"2-122.527—Started last9.03.50.00.534.2%16.7%3.083.3%29.2%
2GFr6'2"2-020.521—Bench5.00.53.02.031.8%16.7%3.075.0%23.9%
24FSr6'9"2-019.520—Bench7.02.50.50.050.0%36.4%5.5100.0%19.2%
7FSr6'6"2-218.023—Started last4.03.50.01.540.0%—0.00.0%23.0%
0FSr6'5"2-113.516—Bench3.52.01.01.043.8%50.0%1.0—21.3%
5GFr6'5"2-011.07—Bench3.50.00.00.066.7%—0.075.0%13.0%
6GSo6'4"1-011.06—Bench5.01.00.00.083.3%50.0%2.0—15.3%
25FJr6'9"2-04.00—Bench2.00.50.00.5100.0%—0.0—21.8%
23GFr6'4"1-03.0——Active0.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
TroyValparaiso
Efficiency
104.0
106.1
107.1
101.9
68.9
68.2
5.9
-0.9
Shooting
44.5%
51.7%
44.6%
59.0%
29.6%
25.6%
62.9%
64.4%
29.4%
48.8%
Ball control & glass
14.4%
12.3%
18.0%
18.4%
22.4%
27.6%
43.6%
28.0%
7.2%
8.2%
16.9%
2.6%
Style
45.4%
35.5%
40.6%
44.2%
6.3%
8.6%
55.6%
40.4%
40.0%
36.9%
Roster
3.32
2.20
6'5"
6'5.9"
8.9%
47.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Troy
Returning minutes: 9.0%Returning production: 7.0%
Lost
  • Thomas Dowd 36.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Auburn
  • Cooper Campbell 33.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Liberty
  • Victor Valdes 28.4 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
  • Cobi Campbell 27.1 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Liberty
  • Theo Seng 23.5 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jerrell Bellamy 16.6 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Donovan Oday from N Kentucky · 29.0 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
  • Jacoi Hutchinson from Longwood · 27.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
  • Robert Davis Jr. from Old Dominion · 23.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
  • Caden Diggs from UMBC · 22.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
  • Sam Walters from SMU · 6.5 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
  • Mobi Ikegwuruka from Kansas St · 4.0 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season

Returns 9% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Valparaiso
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 50.3%
Lost
  • Owen Dease 26.9 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Shon Tupuola 24.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Murray St
  • Brody Whitaker 24.4 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Isaiah Barnes 11.7 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mark Brown Jr. 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg · transferred to Utah Tech
  • Tucker Tornatta 7.2 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Bellarmine
Added
  • Bruno Alocen from Indiana St · 21.3 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
  • Kai Yu from Bradley · 7.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
  • Hudson Scroggins no D1 minutes last season
  • Kobe Walker no D1 minutes last season
  • Dylan Moles no D1 minutes last season
  • Justin Curry II no D1 minutes last season

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sat, Nov 21

← Fri, Nov 20 · Sun, Nov 22 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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