CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series
Duke
Efficiency #2
2025-26: 35-3 · 20-1 conf
vs
Washington St
Efficiency #174
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · 11:00 PM ET
83.2
win 93%
Projected
66.2
win 7%
No line posted yet.
Model: DUKE −17.0 · total 149.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Washington St 68.7, Duke 67.2 → 67.6 possessions
−1.6
Washington St offense vs Duke defense
−7.1
Duke offense vs Washington St defense
+9.9
Projected total
149.5
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Washington St offense vs Duke defense
−7.1
Duke offense vs Washington St defense
−9.9
Duke by 17.0
17.0
Duke side ◂▸ Washington St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.4 against a projected 149.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Washington St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Washington St is the faster team (68.9, #152 of 365) and Duke the slower (66.8, #250). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.5
model
Projected team totals
83.2 / 66.2
Duke / Washington St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#274
Duke
68.7#149
Washington St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageDuke
Where Duke scores: shooting
Duke shoots an effective 56.6% (#13); Washington St allows 52.6% (#248). Expect about 55.1%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.4 points per 100 possessions.
GlassDuke
Duke owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.9% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Duke's offense.
ClashWashington St
Style match: 3-point volume
Washington St takes 44.8% of its shots from three; Duke lets opponents take 45.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.3% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversDuke
Duke protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Duke's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Washington St, Duke's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Duke at about 40.9% of its shots from three, Washington St about 47.3%.
AdvantageWashington St
Where Washington St struggles: the offensive glass
Washington St rebounds 29.5% of its own misses (#221); Duke lets opponents grab 25.2% of their own misses (#10). Expect about 27.3%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.
Duke has the ball
OffenseWashington St allowsvs D1 avg
56.6% #13
52.6% #248
+5.4 pt/100
15.9% #135
14.6% #317
+2.3 pt/100
38.4% #4
28.2% #71
+2.8 pt/100
38.2% #97
33.0% #133
+0.0 pt/100
72.9% #175
—
+0.0 pt/100
Duke net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.6 pts/100
Washington St has the ball
OffenseDuke allowsvs D1 avg
54.7% #48
46.2% #13
-0.9 pt/100
18.4% #292
17.3% #132
-1.6 pt/100
29.5% #221
25.2% #10
-1.9 pt/100
30.2% #305
22.8% #2
-1.2 pt/100
74.5% #103
—
+0.2 pt/100
Washington St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersDukeoffense vsWashington Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Duke shoots
44.5
4.3
8.0
43.1
Washington St allows
38.1
7.3
17.9
36.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.4%#29 | 58.2%#152 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.7%#108 | 41.3%#218 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.1%#34 | 44.6%#345 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#133 | 35.4%#273 | 33.7% |
Washington Stoffense vsDukedefense
Share of shots by zone
Washington St shoots
33.0
6.7
16.3
44.0
Duke allows
30.5
6.1
18.7
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.3%#48 | 55.4%#75 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.1%#243 | 41.9%#229 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.4%#98 | 34.4%#61 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.5%#40 | 30.6%#27 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersDuke
+9.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#1 of 365
Off reb %
38.4%
#4
Def reb %
74.8%
#10
Turnover %
15.9%
#135
Forced TO %
17.3%
#132
FT rate
38.2%
#97
FT allowed
22.8%
#2
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.6
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+3.2
Washington St
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#297 of 365
Off reb %
29.5%
#221
Def reb %
71.8%
#71
Turnover %
18.4%
#292
Forced TO %
14.6%
#317
FT rate
30.2%
#305
FT allowed
33.0%
#133
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Duke has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.3 (#1 of 365) to Washington St’s −2.8 (#297).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Duke2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | John Blackwellat Wisconsin | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.8 | 19.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 53.4% | 38.9% | 7.3 | 85.9% | 30.6% | |
| 7 | Dame Sarr | F | So | 6'8" | 38-30 | 23.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50.7% | 32.3% | 3.5 | 53.2% | 18.8% | |
| 2 | Cayden Boozer | G | So | 6'4" | 38-11 | 22.8 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 54.8% | 30.3% | 1.7 | 81.3% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Caleb Foster | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-30 | 24.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 53.3% | 39.8% | 3.0 | 58.2% | 21.0% | |
| 8 | Drew Scharnowskiat Belmont | F | Sr | 6'10" | 30-24 | 21.7 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 68.3% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 43.6% | 27.3% | |
| 26 | Jacob Theodosiouat Loyola MD | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-18 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 51.7% | 29.6% | 3.6 | 67.2% | 35.2% | |
| 21 | Patrick Ngongba II | C | Jr | 6'11" | 32-28 | 21.9 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 62.8% | 25.8% | 1.0 | 66.4% | 24.8% | |
| 50 | Brock Davis | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Sebastian Wilkins | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Bryson Howard | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Cameron Williams | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Deron Rippey Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | C | Fr | 7'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Maxime Meyer | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 55 | Nick Arnold | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: John Blackwell (from Wisconsin), Drew Scharnowski (from Belmont), Jacob Theodosiou (from Loyola MD)
Washington St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Ace Glass | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-24 | 28.9 | 16.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 54.4% | 36.4% | 6.1 | 88.2% | 32.8% | |
| 2 | Eemeli Yalaho | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-27 | 28.3 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 57.8% | 39.8% | 4.0 | 79.7% | 20.6% | |
| 15 | Rihards Vavers | F | Jr | 6'7" | 29-16 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 62.1% | 41.2% | 6.1 | 88.9% | 22.2% | |
| 13 | Adria Rodriguez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-11 | 20.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 6.7% | 0.5 | 42.4% | 16.7% | |
| 3 | Simon Hildebrandt | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-2 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 56.5% | 37.0% | 2.5 | 71.9% | 18.3% | |
| 5 | Tomas Thrastarson | G | So | 6'7" | 19-13 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 50.0% | 28.8% | 2.7 | 73.8% | 24.2% | |
| 0 | Emmanuel Ugbo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-6 | 18.1 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 50.4% | 28.6% | 1.9 | 71.1% | 23.1% | |
| 10 | Parker Gerrits | G | So | 6'2" | 31-0 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 54.8% | 37.5% | 1.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 51 | Kase Wynott | G | So | 6'6" | 5-0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | 40.0% | 2.0 | — | 21.3% | |
| 7 | Dio Blakely | G | Fr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 56.0% | |
| 4 | Brunel Madzou | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dominik Robinson | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Duke2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | John Blackwellat Wisconsin | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 33.8 | 19.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 53.4% | 38.9% | 7.3 | 85.9% | 30.6% | |
| 7 | Dame Sarr | F | So | 6'8" | 38-30 | 23.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50.7% | 32.3% | 3.5 | 53.2% | 18.8% | |
| 2 | Cayden Boozer | G | So | 6'4" | 38-11 | 22.8 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 54.8% | 30.3% | 1.7 | 81.3% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Caleb Foster | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-30 | 24.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 53.3% | 39.8% | 3.0 | 58.2% | 21.0% | |
| 8 | Drew Scharnowskiat Belmont | F | Sr | 6'10" | 30-24 | 21.7 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 68.3% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 43.6% | 27.3% | |
| 26 | Jacob Theodosiouat Loyola MD | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-18 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 51.7% | 29.6% | 3.6 | 67.2% | 35.2% | |
| 21 | Patrick Ngongba II | C | Jr | 6'11" | 32-28 | 21.9 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 62.8% | 25.8% | 1.0 | 66.4% | 24.8% | |
| 50 | Brock Davis | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Sebastian Wilkins | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Bryson Howard | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Cameron Williams | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Deron Rippey Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | C | Fr | 7'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Maxime Meyer | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 55 | Nick Arnold | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: John Blackwell (from Wisconsin), Drew Scharnowski (from Belmont), Jacob Theodosiou (from Loyola MD)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Duke
Against the spread
Season
20-18
Home
7-8
Road
8-3
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.1
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
13-23-2
Home
4-10-1
Road
4-7
Last 10
5-4-1
avg vs total +1.6
Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 1 of 6 with a line of 10+, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | #2UConn | N | L 72–73 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 135.5 | O145 | 114.7 | 116.3 | 62.8 |
| Mar 27 | #5St John's | N | W 80–75 | −6.5 | L−1.5 | 140.5 | O155 | 124.8 | 117.0 | 64.1 |
| Mar 21 | #9TCU | N | W 81–58 | −12.0 | W+11.0 | 140.5 | U139 | 116.8 | 83.6 | 69.3 |
| Mar 19 | #16Siena | N | W 71–65 | −27.5 | L−21.5 | 136.0 | P136 | 114.7 | 105.0 | 61.9 |
| Mar 14 | #10Virginia | N | W 74–70 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 116.4 | 110.1 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Clemson | N | W 73–61 | −10.5 | W+1.5 | 135.0 | U134 | 115.5 | 96.5 | 63.2 |
| Mar 12 | Florida St | N | W 80–79 | −17.0 | L−16.0 | 150.5 | O159 | 119.0 | 117.5 | 67.2 |
| Mar 7 | #17North Carolina | H | W 76–61 | −18.0 | L−3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 116.9 | 93.8 | 65.0 |
| Mar 2 | NC State | A | W 93–64 | −9.0 | W+20.0 | 150.5 | O157 | 144.3 | 99.3 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | #11Virginia | H | W 77–51 | −10.0 | W+16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 126.4 | 83.7 | 60.9 |
Washington St
Against the spread
Season
15-16
Home
8-7
Road
6-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.6
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-15
Home
10-5
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.0
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Portland | N | L 68–74 | −5.5 | L−11.5 | 150.0 | U142 | 97.7 | 106.3 | 69.6 |
| Feb 28 | Pepperdine | A | L 79–88 | −8.0 | L−17.0 | 158.0 | O167 | 104.6 | 116.6 | 75.5 |
| Feb 25 | LMU | A | L 66–67 | +2.0 | W+1.0 | 148.0 | U133 | 97.1 | 98.6 | 68.0 |
| Feb 21 | Saint Mary's | H | L 67–83 | +8.5 | L−7.5 | 148.5 | O150 | 106.5 | 131.9 | 62.9 |
| Feb 18 | Pacific | H | W 87–70 | −2.5 | W+14.5 | 143.5 | O157 | 132.8 | 106.8 | 65.5 |
| Feb 10 | #12Gonzaga | A | L 53–83 | +21.5 | L−8.5 | 156.0 | U136 | 74.8 | 117.1 | 70.9 |
| Feb 7 | Santa Clara | H | L 92–96 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 160.5 | O188 | 129.8 | 135.5 | 70.9 |
| Feb 4 | Oregon St | A | L 64–74 | −2.0 | L−12.0 | 148.0 | U138 | 94.7 | 109.5 | 67.6 |
| Jan 31 | Portland | H | W 104–74 | −8.5 | W+21.5 | 152.0 | O178 | 145.2 | 103.3 | 71.6 |
| Jan 28 | Seattle U | H | W 70–58 | −2.5 | W+9.5 | 142.5 | U128 | 102.9 | 85.2 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeDukeWashington St
Efficiency
121.1
110.7
95.8
110.6
67.2
68.7
—
—
Shooting
56.6%
54.7%
60.2%
54.6%
34.7%
36.5%
72.9%
74.5%
38.2%
30.2%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
18.4%
17.3%
14.6%
38.4%
29.5%
25.2%
28.2%
9.7%
10.1%
9.6%
9.6%
Style
43.5%
44.8%
45.5%
38.9%
12.2%
11.7%
58.8%
51.6%
32.2%
34.1%
Roster
3.26
2.77
6'6.5"
6'6"
43.2%
75.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputDuke
Returning minutes: 43.2%Returning production: 36.9%
Lost
- Cameron Boozer 33.5 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Evans 28.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Maliq Brown 20.2 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nikolas Khamenia 19.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Darren Harris 9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cameron Sheffield 1.2 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- John Blackwell from Wisconsin · 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
- Drew Scharnowski from Belmont · 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg last season
- Jacob Theodosiou from Loyola MD · 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Sebastian Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
- Cameron Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Nick Arnold no D1 minutes last season
Returns 43% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Washington St
Returning minutes: 75.9%Returning production: 73.1%
Lost
- Jerone Morton 24.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- ND Okafor 23.2 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
- Dominik Robinson no D1 minutes last season
- Brunel Madzou no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 76% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.