UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs Norfolk State Spartans basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 21 · 6:00 PM ET · Joseph G. Echols Hall, Norfolk, VA
Non-conferenceJoseph G. Echols Hall, Norfolk, VA
UNC Wilmington
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #114
@
Norfolk St
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #314
Sat, Nov 21 · 6:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UNC Wilmington is the faster team (79.0, #21 of 365) and Norfolk St the slower (72.8, #116). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.6
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.5#122
UNC Wilmington
70.6#178
Norfolk St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Norfolk St has the ball−6.2
UNC Wilmington has the ball+11.4
Norfolk St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.6% #295 · UNCW allows 44.4% #69−7.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 11.0% #13 · UNCW forces 13.9% #292 · ~8 turnovers+6.0
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.4% #290 · UNCW allows 16.7% #4−5.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 47.5% #68 · UNCW allows 38.7% #200 · FT 72.4% #139+0.7
UNC Wilmington has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.9% #168 · NORF allows 67.5% #351+9.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · NORF allows 44.1% #339+3.8
✗Coughs it upTO% 24.0% #326 · NORF forces 16.5% #228 · ~15 turnovers−1.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 60.3% #12 · NORF allows 42.9% #240 · FT 54.3% #343+0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUNC Wilmingtonoffense vsNorfolk Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UNC Wilmington shoots
43.1
6.9
8.6
41.4
Norfolk St allows
43.5
6.5
2.2
47.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.0%#146 | 70.0%#303 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#250 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 37.5%#87 | 44.1%#334 | 32.5% |
Norfolk Stoffense vsUNC Wilmingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
Norfolk St shoots
31.7
14.6
14.6
39.0
UNC Wilmington allows
30.6
4.8
4.8
59.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.8%#235 | 63.2%#244 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#299 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 16.7%#298 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.3%#158 | 24.3%#41 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUNC Wilmington
+4.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#109 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#107
Def reb %
83.3%
#4
Turnover %
24.0%
#326
Forced TO %
13.9%
#292
FT rate
60.3%
#12
FT allowed
38.7%
#200
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+5.0
Ball security−4.1
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn+6.0
Foul shots allowed−0.2
Norfolk St
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365
Off reb %
24.4%
#290
Def reb %
55.9%
#339
Turnover %
11.0%
#13
Forced TO %
16.5%
#228
FT rate
47.5%
#68
FT allowed
42.9%
#240
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.4
Defensive rebounding−4.2
Ball security+5.1
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed−1.3
UNC Wilmington has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.9 (#109 of 365) to Norfolk St’s −1.1 (#194).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UNC Wilmington2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 90.9% | 21.7% | Active | |
| 2 | C | Sr | 7'0" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 70.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 31.1% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-1 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 77.1% | 52.4% | 10.5 | 83.3% | 34.1% | Active | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'2" | 2-0 | 22.5 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 47.6% | 36.4% | 5.5 | 42.9% | 32.8% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 21.5 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 45.8% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 83.3% | 21.0% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-2 | 20.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 3.5 | 37.5% | 26.9% | Active | |
| 1 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 40.9% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 19.2% | Active | |
| 9 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 28.6% | — | 0.0 | 42.9% | 19.5% | Active | |
| 12 | G | So | 6'0" | 2-1 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 7.4% | Active | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 22.2% | Active | |
| 24 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 20.7% | Missed last | |
| 21 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 15.2% | Missed last | |
| 10 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.9% | Missed last |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUNC Wilmington
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +2.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | East Carolina | A | W 78–75 | −5.5 | L−2.5 | 150.5 | O153 | 98.7 | 94.9 | 79.0 |
| Nov 2 | Mount Olive Trojans | H | W 101–65 | — | — | — | — | 130.3 | 83.9 | 77.5 |
| Mar 21 | Dayton | H | L 61–80 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 138.5 | O141 | 95.9 | 125.8 | 63.6 |
| Mar 17 | Yale | A | W 68–67 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | U135 | 104.5 | 103.0 | 65.1 |
| Mar 8 | Campbell | N | L 70–85 | −7.5 | L−22.5 | 149.0 | O155 | 97.8 | 118.7 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Elon | A | W 76–57 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 113.6 | 85.2 | 66.9 |
| Mar 1 | Charleston | H | L 76–79 | −5.0 | L−8.0 | 147.0 | O155 | 117.9 | 122.6 | 64.5 |
| Feb 26 | NC A&T | H | W 88–65 | −13.5 | W+9.5 | 147.5 | O153 | 136.2 | 100.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 21 | Campbell | A | W 73–68 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 150.5 | U141 | 106.8 | 99.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 19 | Monmouth | H | W 79–69 | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 109.7 | 95.8 | 72.0 |
Norfolk St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −20.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +19.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | William & Mary | A | L 73–104 | +11.0 | L−20.0 | 157.5 | O177 | 100.3 | 142.9 | 72.8 |
| Nov 4 | Randolph Wildcats | H | W 78–71 | — | — | — | — | 103.4 | 94.2 | 75.4 |
| Nov 2 | Regent Regent Royals | H | W 68–45 | — | — | — | — | 106.2 | 70.3 | 64.0 |
| Mar 12 | SC State | N | L 82–88 | −8.5 | L−14.5 | 144.5 | O170 | 108.6 | 116.6 | 75.5 |
| Mar 5 | Howard | H | L 76–84 | +6.5 | L−1.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 109.8 | 121.4 | 69.2 |
| Mar 2 | Morgan St | A | L 84–90 | −3.5 | L−9.5 | 157.0 | O174 | 111.4 | 119.4 | 75.4 |
| Feb 28 | Coppin St | A | W 75–69 | −8.0 | L−2.0 | 141.5 | O144 | 113.6 | 104.5 | 66.0 |
| Feb 21 | SC State | H | W 90–71 | −10.0 | W+9.0 | 140.5 | O161 | 126.1 | 99.5 | 71.4 |
| Feb 16 | MD Eastern | A | W 70–66 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | U136 | 118.5 | 111.7 | 59.1 |
| Feb 14 | Delaware St | H | W 75–58 | −9.0 | W+8.0 | 134.0 | U133 | 119.1 | 92.1 | 63.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUNC WilmingtonNorfolk St
Efficiency
107.1
101.7
102.3
112.8
71.5
70.6
-4.8
5.7
Shooting
50.9%
42.6%
47.1%
37.8%
37.5%
33.3%
54.3%
72.4%
60.3%
47.5%
Ball control & glass
24.0%
11.0%
13.9%
16.5%
35.1%
24.4%
16.7%
44.1%
11.4%
5.5%
11.8%
8.1%
Style
41.4%
39.3%
41.0%
32.9%
19.2%
16.4%
68.0%
72.7%
40.7%
38.4%
Roster
3.37
2.31
6'5.6"
6'5"
23.7%
0.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUNC Wilmington
Returning minutes: 23.7%Returning production: 29.5%
Lost
- Nolan Hodge 32.3 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Greedy Williams 30.6 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Ross 29.2 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian May 28.8 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Madison Durr 21.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Monmouth
- Makoi Mabor Makoi 8.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to Mercer
Added
- William Kermoury from Northeastern · 23.5 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
- Tahlan Pettway from W Carolina · 21.3 mpg, 8.3 ppg last season
- Spencer Elliott from Charlotte · 17.2 mpg, 4.1 ppg last season
- Xavier Brown from South Florida · 1.1 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Matija Prodanovic no D1 minutes last season
- Tamarion Siddle no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Norfolk St
Returning minutes: 7.0%Returning production: 5.2%
Lost
- Anthony McComb III 34.2 mpg, 17.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Jamison 27.4 mpg, 14.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devon Ellis 27.3 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jordan Leaks 23.5 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keyontae Lewis 17.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- My'kel Jenkins 15.9 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jahki Gupton from Saint Peter's · 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
- Bahsil Laster from UT Arlington · 19.3 mpg, 7.3 ppg last season
- Brandon Gardner from Sacramento St · 8.0 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season
- J.C. Riley Jr. from N'Western St · 7.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
- Miles Mitchell no D1 minutes last season
- Jamese Jordan no D1 minutes last season
Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 21
- SC Upstate at UNC Greensboro · 11:00 AM ET
- Siena at Bucknell · 11:00 AM ET
- Gardner-Webb at VMI · 12:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Boston U · 12:00 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at Michigan St · 12:00 PM ET
- Denver at E Michigan · 1:00 PM ET
- Kent State at Cleveland St · 1:00 PM ET
- Mercyhurst vs W Illinois · 1:30 PM ET
- Lafayette at Syracuse · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bowling Green · 2:00 PM ET
- Fordham vs Portland · 2:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Wichita St · 2:00 PM ET
- Navy at Rider · 2:00 PM ET
- Little Rock at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Morgan St · 2:00 PM ET
- Stony Brook at Saint Peter's · 2:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at Austin Peay · 3:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Milwaukee · 3:00 PM ET
- Drake at Missouri St · 3:00 PM ET
- Army at Binghamton · 3:30 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Jacksonville · 4:00 PM ET
- South Florida at George Mason · 4:00 PM ET
- Penn at La Salle · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at ETSU · 4:00 PM ET
- UAlbany at Canisius · 4:00 PM ET
- UC Irvine vs San Diego · 4:30 PM ET
- Air Force at UTSA · 5:00 PM ET
- Northeastern at Stonehill · 5:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss vs Nicholls · 5:00 PM ET
- Winthrop at Wofford · 5:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at Georgetown · 6:00 PM ET
- Maine at UMass · 6:00 PM ET
- W Carolina at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Vermont · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at Mercer · 7:00 PM ET
- CA Baptist vs LMU · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Cal Poly · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Radford at Chattanooga · 7:00 PM ET
- Michigan at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Presbyterian at Tennessee Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Oral Roberts · 8:00 PM ET
- Troy vs Valparaiso · 8:00 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Southern · 8:30 PM ET
- Washington St vs Duke · 11:00 PM ET
- Bradley at Pacific · TBD
- Queens at LSU · TBD
- New Hampshire at New Haven · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.