CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAlex G. Spanos Center, Stockton, CA
Bradley
Efficiency #117
2025-26: 21-13 · 14-8 conf
@
Pacific
Efficiency #126
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-11 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
69.7
win 38%
Projected
73.4
win 62%
No line posted yet.
Model: PAC −3.6 · total 143.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Pacific 66.4, Bradley 68.2 → 66.3 possessions
−4.4
Pacific offense vs Bradley defense
−0.4
Bradley offense vs Pacific defense
−0.3
Projected total
143.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Pacific offense vs Bradley defense
−0.4
Bradley offense vs Pacific defense
+0.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Pacific by 3.6
3.6
Bradley side ◂▸ Pacific side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +3.7 against +3.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Pacific.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bradley is the faster team (67.6, #220 of 365) and Pacific the slower (65.8, #300). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.1
model
Projected team totals
69.7 / 73.4
Bradley / Pacific
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#192
Bradley
66.4#325
Pacific

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantagePacific
Where Pacific struggles: ball control
Pacific turns it over on 20.1% of possessions (#349); Bradley forces turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions (#53). Expect about 20.0%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBradley
Where Bradley scores: ball control
Bradley turns it over on 13.9% of possessions (#20); Pacific forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#273). Expect about 14.1%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassBradley
Bradley gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.6% is worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions against Bradley's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bradley's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bradley at about 42.4% of its shots from three, Pacific about 36.5%.
Bradley has the ball
OffensePacific allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #189
50.0% #101
-1.0 pt/100
13.9% #20
15.1% #273
+3.3 pt/100
27.4% #285
25.0% #8
-2.9 pt/100
35.9% #156
36.3% #219
+0.1 pt/100
74.0% #134
—
+0.1 pt/100
Bradley net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100
Pacific has the ball
OffenseBradley allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #140
52.8% #259
+1.8 pt/100
20.1% #349
19.0% #53
-4.0 pt/100
35.3% #42
27.8% #62
+1.3 pt/100
30.5% #297
38.2% #265
-0.0 pt/100
75.5% #66
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pacific net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Bradleyoffense vsPacificdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bradley shoots
Pacific allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.7%#17357.0%#11358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.1%#28739.7%#18339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.7%#29637.7%#15138.0%
Three36.1%#5334.7%#23333.7%
Pacificoffense vsBradleydefense
Share of shots by zone
Pacific shoots
Bradley allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.6%#31159.2%#19958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.4%#5736.2%#9439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.9%#1644.3%#34338.0%
Three35.8%#6536.6%#33433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Bradley
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#58 of 365
Off reb %
27.4%
#285
Def reb %
72.2%
#62
Turnover %
13.9%
#20
Forced TO %
19.0%
#53
FT rate
35.9%
#156
FT allowed
38.2%
#265
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Pacific
−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#252 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#42
Def reb %
75.0%
#8
Turnover %
20.1%
#349
Forced TO %
15.1%
#273
FT rate
30.5%
#297
FT allowed
36.3%
#219
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security−2.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.3

Bradley has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#58 of 365) to Pacific’s −1.4 (#252).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bradley2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bradley's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Alex HuibregtseGSr6'4"34-3431.212.83.11.71.059.3%43.3%7.084.4%21.7%
22Jaquan JohnsonGSo5'11"34-3430.416.93.93.61.448.9%38.3%4.178.4%32.2%
21AJ SmithFSr6'7"34-3225.78.45.41.31.051.2%37.2%2.872.2%19.8%
14Ahmet JonovicCSr7'1"34-3324.78.15.31.41.553.3%20.0%0.175.0%20.2%
10Timoty van der KnaapGSo6'8"34-1122.96.54.80.40.846.8%23.1%1.965.2%18.8%
7Montana WheelerGFr5'10"34-022.38.51.12.81.050.0%33.7%3.171.2%23.8%
4Corey ThomasFSr6'10"34-1018.45.43.60.80.757.1%32.8%1.875.0%16.7%
0Demarion BurchGJr6'4"26-1623.08.82.21.00.946.2%31.3%3.158.5%25.7%
12Kai YuCSo7'0"29-08.32.71.90.30.450.8%27.8%0.669.6%20.3%
1Dietrich RichardsonGFr6'7"18-07.22.30.80.51.137.8%9.1%0.662.5%31.0%
5Matthew ZobristGFr6'5"13-05.01.50.40.10.241.7%25.0%0.681.8%17.4%
13Handy Toussaint IIIFJr6'8"5-02.20.00.80.00.00.0%—0.00.0%9.9%
23Gus RugaardGSo6'1"7-01.40.00.10.00.00.0%0.0%0.3—11.5%
17Gustavo GuimaresCFr6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Jackson SeastrunkGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BradleyPacific
Efficiency
110.2
108.8
107.5
106.4
68.2
66.4
—
—
Shooting
51.1%
52.2%
49.1%
51.3%
36.1%
35.8%
74.0%
75.5%
35.9%
30.5%
Ball control & glass
13.9%
20.1%
19.0%
15.1%
27.4%
35.3%
27.8%
25.0%
7.1%
9.9%
8.8%
10.6%
Style
40.5%
35.3%
39.4%
45.9%
12.0%
9.7%
50.8%
58.0%
33.2%
27.8%
Roster
2.92
3.55
6'5.4"
6'4.7"
—
82.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Bradley
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bradley's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Pacific
Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 78.1%
Lost
  • Elias Ralph 34.6 mpg, 16.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kris Keinys no D1 minutes last season
  • Noah Budu no D1 minutes last season
  • Dominic Capriotti no D1 minutes last season
  • Augustas Brazdeikis no D1 minutes last season
  • Clayton Mpiana no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 72026-27Pacific 0 – 0 Bradley

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.