CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceH&PE Arena, Houston, TX
LSU N Orleans
Efficiency #221
2025-26: 15-18 · 13-11 conf
@
Texas Southern
Efficiency #321
2025-26: 12-18 · 10-9 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
77.5
win 53%
Projected
76.7
win 47%
No line posted yet.
Model: NOLA −0.8 · total 154.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas Southern 69.2, LSU N Orleans 69.8 → 70.8 possessions
+5.3
Texas Southern offense vs LSU N Orleans defense
−2.1
LSU N Orleans offense vs Texas Southern defense
+2.8
Projected total
154.2
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Texas Southern offense vs LSU N Orleans defense
−2.1
LSU N Orleans offense vs Texas Southern defense
−2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
LSU N Orleans by 0.8
0.8
LSU N Orleans side ◂▸ Texas Southern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas Southern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Texas Southern is the faster team (70.6, #72 of 365) and LSU N Orleans the slower (69.7, #107). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.2
model
Projected team totals
77.5 / 76.7
LSU N Orleans / Texas Southern
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.8#61
LSU N Orleans
69.2#104
Texas Southern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageTexas Southern
Where Texas Southern struggles: shooting
Texas Southern shoots an effective 49.7% (#251); LSU N Orleans allows 49.0% (#71). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Texas Southern averages 70.6 possessions per 40, LSU N Orleans 69.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageLSU N Orleans
Where LSU N Orleans scores: the offensive glass
LSU N Orleans rebounds 35.6% of its own misses (#34); Texas Southern lets opponents grab 31.2% of their own misses (#211). Expect about 34.4%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversLSU N Orleans
LSU N Orleans turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against LSU N Orleans's offense.
ClashLSU N Orleans
Style clash: 3-point volume
LSU N Orleans rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); Texas Southern lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashTexas Southern
Style clash: ball movement
Texas Southern creates off the dribble (assists on 43.2% of its baskets); LSU N Orleans allows assists on 60.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 51.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
LSU N Orleans has the ball
OffenseTexas Southern allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #258
52.5% #240
-0.5 pt/100
20.5% #353
16.5% #187
-2.3 pt/100
35.6% #34
31.2% #211
+2.4 pt/100
46.4% #1
44.0% #345
+1.4 pt/100
74.3% #114
—
+0.2 pt/100
LSU N Orleans net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100
Texas Southern has the ball
OffenseLSU N Orleans allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #251
49.0% #71
-2.9 pt/100
18.5% #299
14.9% #302
+0.3 pt/100
28.8% #237
34.5% #325
+0.5 pt/100
38.2% #96
39.5% #296
+0.5 pt/100
71.9% #211
—
-0.0 pt/100
Texas Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
LSU N Orleansoffense vsTexas Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
LSU N Orleans shoots
Texas Southern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.9%#24458.7%#17558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.8%#8643.7%#26139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17739.5%#22238.0%
Three31.8%#28734.1%#19033.7%
Texas Southernoffense vsLSU N Orleansdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas Southern shoots
LSU N Orleans allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.0%#19654.3%#4658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.4%#13536.9%#10839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.1%#26041.2%#28038.0%
Three33.1%#22432.4%#8633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
LSU N Orleans
−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#256 of 365
Off reb %
35.6%
#34
Def reb %
65.5%
#325
Turnover %
20.5%
#353
Forced TO %
14.9%
#302
FT rate
46.4%
#1
FT allowed
39.5%
#296
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security−2.5
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn+2.9
Foul shots allowed−1.1
Texas Southern
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#314 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#237
Def reb %
68.8%
#211
Turnover %
18.5%
#299
Forced TO %
16.5%
#187
FT rate
38.2%
#96
FT allowed
44.0%
#345
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed−2.3

LSU N Orleans has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.5 (#256 of 365) to Texas Southern’s −3.5 (#314).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

LSU N Orleans2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
22Coleton BensonGSr6'2"33-3334.316.23.01.71.851.0%35.9%7.592.8%26.5%
5Jakevion BuckleyGSr6'2"32-2933.913.84.75.64.143.2%31.2%2.977.1%30.1%
23MJ ThomasFSo6'8"32-3026.810.88.01.51.853.6%66.7%0.173.3%23.7%
6TJ CopeGJr6'7"32-2021.38.32.90.81.357.5%24.1%0.968.7%21.5%
9Churchill AbassCJr6'10"33-2720.18.45.70.51.663.1%0.0%0.156.7%23.9%
25Enzo BoudoumaFFr6'9"32-618.35.33.10.80.945.2%27.0%2.372.3%18.9%
21Kedrick OsbyFJr6'7"32-717.24.92.20.20.550.8%40.0%1.775.8%16.9%
99Panagiotis PagonisFFr6'9"30-717.64.13.11.00.739.8%24.5%1.672.0%16.6%
3Irish CoquiaGJr6'2"25-39.62.70.71.20.845.9%34.1%1.684.6%20.8%
15Jamal Chretien IIGFr6'6"14-39.11.40.70.20.236.4%15.4%0.975.0%12.1%
11Mathok MajokCJr7'4"16-04.92.21.60.00.273.7%—0.053.8%20.8%
0Hercy MillerGSr6'3"9-05.61.60.60.60.626.9%0.0%0.90.0%36.3%
7Grant KempGSr5'9"7-04.91.31.10.60.418.2%0.0%0.471.4%29.1%
20William PattersonCSo7'2"7-04.30.30.70.00.320.0%—0.0—13.0%
13Vieux SannehFFr6'5"2-06.01.00.50.00.00.0%—0.0100.0%14.6%
10Eze NwakammaFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LSU N OrleansTexas Southern
Efficiency
108.2
103.4
110.5
112.7
69.8
69.2
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
49.7%
50.6%
49.8%
31.8%
33.1%
74.3%
71.9%
46.4%
38.2%
Ball control & glass
20.5%
18.5%
14.9%
16.5%
35.6%
28.8%
34.5%
31.2%
11.1%
10.6%
9.7%
7.7%
Style
33.7%
32.5%
42.7%
44.5%
12.4%
17.7%
52.5%
43.2%
31.8%
37.5%
Roster
2.84
3.66
6'5.9"
6'4.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
LSU N Orleans
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Texas Southern
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Texas Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.