CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSchar Center, Elon, NC
Morehead St
Efficiency #266
2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf
@
Elon
Efficiency #228
2025-26: 14-18 · 6-13 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
72.5
win 32%
Projected
78.1
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: ELON −5.5 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Elon 68.0, Morehead St 67.0 → 66.7 possessions
−3.5
Elon offense vs Morehead St defense
+3.8
Morehead St offense vs Elon defense
+2.1
Projected total
150.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Elon offense vs Morehead St defense
+3.8
Morehead St offense vs Elon defense
−2.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Elon by 5.5
5.5
Morehead St side ◂▸ Elon side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Elon.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Elon is the faster team (67.9, #205 of 365) and Morehead St the slower (66.8, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.6
model
Projected team totals
72.5 / 78.1
Morehead St / Elon
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#288
Morehead St
68.0#209
Elon
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMorehead St
Where Morehead St scores: the offensive glass
Morehead St rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#27); Elon lets opponents grab 33.5% of their own misses (#307). Expect about 35.7%, 5.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageElon
Where Elon scores: the offensive glass
Elon rebounds 32.2% of its own misses (#116); Morehead St lets opponents grab 35.8% of their own misses (#351). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Elon's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Morehead St at about 35.5% of its shots from three, Elon about 42.2%.
TurnoversElon
Elon protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Elon's offense.
ClashMorehead St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Morehead St rarely shoots threes (30.5% of its shots); Elon lets opponents take 44.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Morehead St has the ball
OffenseElon allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #285
54.0% #300
+0.2 pt/100
18.0% #272
16.4% #193
-0.6 pt/100
35.8% #27
33.5% #307
+3.2 pt/100
37.7% #109
34.6% #169
+0.1 pt/100
74.1% #125
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100
Elon has the ball
OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #137
50.2% #109
-0.0 pt/100
15.9% #134
15.4% #258
+1.6 pt/100
32.2% #116
35.8% #351
+2.4 pt/100
33.5% #222
35.6% #201
-0.0 pt/100
71.4% #225
—
-0.1 pt/100
Elon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMorehead Stoffense vsElondefense
Share of shots by zone
Morehead St shoots
39.8
8.7
21.1
30.4
Elon allows
35.8
5.7
14.1
44.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#270 | 61.8%#297 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 42.7%#241 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#86 | 35.1%#82 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#281 | 36.5%#328 | 33.7% |
Elonoffense vsMorehead Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Elon shoots
44.9
3.1
9.2
42.8
Morehead St allows
39.7
6.2
15.3
38.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.0%#198 | 54.7%#55 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.5%#256 | 34.3%#49 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.9%#354 | 34.9%#74 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.3%#154 | 34.5%#221 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMorehead St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#27
Def reb %
64.2%
#351
Turnover %
18.0%
#272
Forced TO %
15.4%
#258
FT rate
37.7%
#109
FT allowed
35.6%
#201
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Elon
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#116
Def reb %
66.5%
#307
Turnover %
15.9%
#134
Forced TO %
16.4%
#193
FT rate
33.5%
#222
FT allowed
34.6%
#169
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Elon has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#186 of 365) to Morehead St’s −1.0 (#234).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chandler Cuthrell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.2 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 51.9% | 25.5% | 3.3 | 72.9% | 40.7% | |
| 11 | Randall Pettus II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-31 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48.7% | 35.4% | 5.9 | 76.2% | 26.7% | |
| 0 | Bryson Cokley | G | So | 6'6" | 32-12 | 27.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 39.2% | 4.9 | 80.0% | 25.1% | |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 35.7% | 3.5 | 72.1% | 15.4% | |
| 3 | Ja'Juan Carr | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-31 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 6 | Kacper Klaczek | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-22 | 28.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 | 64.2% | 23.1% | |
| 22 | Ned Hull | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | DeMarco Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 15.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Caleb Middleton | C | So | 6'11" | 29-0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.6% | |
| 33 | Bryson Spell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 23-1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 83.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Iker Garmendia | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 64.3% | 26.5% | |
| 13 | Savion Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 42.7% | |
| 25 | Alex Olander | F | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 14 | Alex Brabec | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Austin Williams | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey O'Neil | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Morehead St
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
7-3
Road
10-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
6-4
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.9
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Tennessee St | N | L 67–93 | +5.0 | L−21.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 96.0 | 133.2 | 69.8 |
| Mar 6 | SE Missouri | N | W 66–61 | +4.0 | W+9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 102.1 | 94.4 | 64.6 |
| Feb 26 | Little Rock | A | W 76–70 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 117.8 | 108.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | S Indiana | H | W 64–63 | −7.5 | L−6.5 | 142.5 | U127 | 105.7 | 104.0 | 60.5 |
| Feb 21 | W Illinois | A | W 81–59 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 127.6 | 92.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | E Illinois | A | W 73–70 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | O143 | 110.0 | 105.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | Tennessee St | H | W 94–86 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O180 | 135.8 | 124.3 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 73–66 | −4.0 | W+3.0 | 144.0 | U139 | 117.1 | 105.9 | 62.3 |
| Feb 7 | UT Martin | A | W 61–55 | +9.0 | W+15.0 | 136.0 | U116 | 101.3 | 91.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 5 | SE Missouri | A | L 70–82 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 99.9 | 117.1 | 70.1 |
Elon
Against the spread
Season
11-19
Home
3-11
Road
8-7
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.7
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
9-5
Road
7-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.3
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | William & Mary | N | L 62–72 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 163.5 | U134 | 91.6 | 106.4 | 67.7 |
| Mar 3 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 57–76 | +5.0 | L−14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 85.2 | 113.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | Monmouth | A | L 57–73 | +3.5 | L−12.5 | 153.0 | U130 | 90.3 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 26 | Towson | A | L 56–58 | +5.5 | W+3.5 | 144.0 | U114 | 90.9 | 94.1 | 61.6 |
| Feb 21 | NC A&T | H | L 82–102 | −8.0 | L−28.0 | 152.5 | O184 | 121.1 | 150.6 | 67.7 |
| Feb 14 | William & Mary | A | W 81–78 | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 165.5 | U159 | 113.8 | 109.6 | 71.2 |
| Feb 12 | UNC Wilmington | A | L 54–65 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 149.5 | U119 | 89.7 | 108.0 | 60.2 |
| Feb 7 | Drexel | H | L 77–82 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 113.9 | 121.3 | 67.6 |
| Feb 5 | Hampton | A | L 79–87 2OT | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 142.5 | O166 | 100.1 | 110.2 | 78.9 |
| Jan 31 | Stony Brook | H | L 68–72 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U140 | 98.5 | 104.3 | 69.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMorehead StElon
Efficiency
107.5
109.8
112.8
112.7
67.0
68.0
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
52.2%
49.7%
52.8%
32.0%
34.3%
74.1%
71.4%
37.7%
33.5%
Ball control & glass
18.0%
15.9%
15.4%
16.4%
35.8%
32.2%
35.8%
33.5%
10.6%
9.4%
9.2%
11.2%
Style
30.5%
43.2%
45.0%
44.1%
12.1%
11.6%
47.4%
54.6%
38.1%
33.3%
Roster
2.81
2.96
6'4.7"
6'5.8"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMorehead St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Elon
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.