CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceStroh Center, Bowling Green, OH

N Illinois

Efficiency #341

2025-26: 9-21 · 4-14 conf

Bowling Green

Efficiency #114

2025-26: 18-14 · 9-10 conf

Sat, Nov 21 · TBD

65.0

win 12%

Projected

78.8

win 88%

No line posted yet.

Model: BGSU −13.8 · total 143.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bowling Green 68.9, N Illinois 68.5 → 69.1 possessions

+1.6

Bowling Green offense vs N Illinois defense

+1.9

N Illinois offense vs Bowling Green defense

−8.0

Projected total

143.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bowling Green offense vs N Illinois defense

+1.9

N Illinois offense vs Bowling Green defense

+8.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Bowling Green by 13.8

13.8

N Illinois side ◂▸ Bowling Green side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.7 against a projected 143.8, and the margin steps add to +13.9 against +13.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bowling Green.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bowling Green is the faster team (70.2, #86 of 365) and N Illinois the slower (69.0, #149). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.8

model

Projected team totals

65.0 / 78.8

N Illinois / Bowling Green

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#172

N Illinois

68.9#128

Bowling Green

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageN Illinois

Where N Illinois struggles: ball control

N Illinois turns it over on 21.8% of possessions (#360); Bowling Green forces turnovers on 18.4% of opponent possessions (#80). Expect about 20.7%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageBowling Green

Where Bowling Green scores: shooting

Bowling Green shoots an effective 51.8% (#153); N Illinois allows 55.6% (#342). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseBowling Green

Bowling Green's ball-hawking

Bowling Green ranks #31 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of N Illinois's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (N Illinois) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Illinois at about 45.0% of its shots from three, Bowling Green about 34.1%.

N Illinois has the ball

OffenseBowling Green allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #324

51.0% #163

-3.2 pt/100

21.8% #360

18.4% #80

-4.8 pt/100

30.3% #187

26.9% #31

-1.1 pt/100

38.3% #95

37.2% #243

+0.4 pt/100

65.7% #356

—

-0.6 pt/100

N Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.3 pts/100

Bowling Green has the ball

OffenseN Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #153

55.6% #342

+3.6 pt/100

16.5% #166

16.3% #205

+0.6 pt/100

28.7% #244

30.0% #161

-0.9 pt/100

37.0% #129

38.3% #267

+0.4 pt/100

72.3% #196

—

-0.0 pt/100

Bowling Green net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Illinoisoffense vsBowling Greendefense

Share of shots by zone

N Illinois shoots

41.7

3.7

8.9

45.7

Bowling Green allows

36.2

10.8

11.8

41.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.9%#350	55.8%#81	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	46.3%#323	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.8%#333	40.2%#251	38.0%
Three	30.9%#323	33.5%#161	33.7%

Bowling Greenoffense vsN Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bowling Green shoots

49.9

8.9

8.1

33.1

N Illinois allows

44.0

4.6

13.3

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.4%#214	62.9%#323	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.8%#306	33.9%#42	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.5%#274	40.6%#259	38.0%
Three	34.4%#148	36.3%#315	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Illinois

−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#315 of 365

Off reb %

30.3%

#187

Def reb %

70.0%

#161

Turnover %

21.8%

#360

Forced TO %

16.3%

#205

FT rate

38.3%

#95

FT allowed

38.3%

#267

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−3.4

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Bowling Green

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#98 of 365

Off reb %

28.7%

#244

Def reb %

73.1%

#31

Turnover %

16.5%

#166

Forced TO %

18.4%

#80

FT rate

37.0%

#129

FT allowed

37.2%

#243

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Bowling Green has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#98 of 365) to N Illinois’s −3.5 (#315).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Makhai Valentine	G	So	6'3"	29-29	30.7	13.3	5.3	1.0	1.2	53.1%	35.8%	6.7	81.3%	24.0%
0	Gianni Cobb	G	So	6'0"	30-19	29.0	9.8	2.7	3.9	2.4	46.2%	26.8%	2.4	59.8%	24.3%
6	Taj Walters	G	Fr	6'5"	29-23	27.1	8.5	5.4	0.6	1.3	52.4%	38.3%	2.8	78.3%	18.8%
96	Gustav Winther	F	Fr	6'10"	30-21	21.2	8.1	4.2	0.9	1.4	64.5%	42.9%	0.2	54.7%	21.2%
3	Daemar Kelly	G	Jr	6'5"	29-15	20.6	5.6	3.1	1.2	1.2	35.2%	25.6%	2.8	76.7%	21.9%
7	Hassan Washington	F	Jr	6'8"	29-14	16.6	4.7	3.2	0.6	1.9	59.9%	43.8%	0.6	44.4%	20.6%
10	Jao Ituka	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	14.1	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3	48.9%	34.4%	4.1	81.0%	27.4%
2	Carlos Coronado	G	Fr	6'3"	20-1	10.3	3.9	0.8	0.6	1.0	41.2%	20.8%	1.2	68.9%	26.2%
8	Ladji Kante	F	Fr	6'7"	17-0	9.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.6	43.8%	20.0%	0.9	65.0%	21.2%
23	Jaylen Wharton	F	Jr	6'9"	18-0	7.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.3	45.2%	—	0.0	42.1%	20.2%
11	Isaiah Washington	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	8.9	2.7	1.3	0.5	0.5	38.9%	11.1%	0.8	64.3%	22.3%
16	Isaiah Stewart	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	0.4	66.7%	11.0%
4	JJ Taylor	F	Jr	6'8"	3-2	21.0	8.7	2.7	0.3	3.0	41.7%	11.1%	3.0	68.8%	29.3%
21	Max Laskey	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	13.9%
15	Lataevyon Taylor	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bowling Green2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Jayden Johnsonat SC State	G	Jr	6'1"	32-29	27.4	13.4	3.0	3.5	2.6	48.8%	37.0%	3.1	72.6%	31.5%
8	Juan Cranford Jr.at E Kentucky	G	Jr	6'4"	32-29	25.9	12.1	2.5	1.6	1.4	53.3%	36.3%	7.0	79.6%	27.2%
4	Josiah Shackelford	G	Jr	6'5"	32-14	22.8	11.3	3.5	0.9	1.0	52.0%	35.3%	3.6	74.7%	27.2%
3	Makhi Leach	G	So	6'2"	25-0	8.8	3.2	1.1	0.4	0.6	47.5%	11.1%	0.7	75.0%	21.9%
34	Aiden Goins	F	Sr	6'9"	25-0	8.5	4.5	1.4	0.2	0.6	48.3%	25.0%	0.8	87.9%	29.6%
22	Christ Essandokoat South Carolina	F	Sr	7'1"	21-4	7.5	2.0	1.6	0.3	0.5	38.6%	37.5%	0.8	50.0%	23.1%
0	Tristan Beckfordat South Florida	G	So	6'7"	19-1	7.9	2.9	1.9	0.3	0.3	52.7%	23.1%	0.7	72.7%	19.2%
15	Camden Karel	F	So	6'9"	19-0	5.9	2.1	1.3	0.1	0.4	64.6%	50.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.0%
13	Preston Squire	F	Jr	6'11"	4-0	5.0	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	10.0%
5	Christian Dedivanaj	G	So	6'3"	5-0	2.4	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	4.0%
2	KJ Torbert	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
35	Leek Ateny	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Talan Staley	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Trey Simmons	G	Jr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Zach Howell	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Tristan Beckford (from South Florida), Juan Cranford Jr. (from E Kentucky), Christ Essandoko (from South Carolina), Jayden Johnson (from SC State)

N Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Makhai Valentine	G	So	6'3"	29-29	30.7	13.3	5.3	1.0	1.2	53.1%	35.8%	6.7	81.3%	24.0%
0	Gianni Cobb	G	So	6'0"	30-19	29.0	9.8	2.7	3.9	2.4	46.2%	26.8%	2.4	59.8%	24.3%
6	Taj Walters	G	Fr	6'5"	29-23	27.1	8.5	5.4	0.6	1.3	52.4%	38.3%	2.8	78.3%	18.8%
96	Gustav Winther	F	Fr	6'10"	30-21	21.2	8.1	4.2	0.9	1.4	64.5%	42.9%	0.2	54.7%	21.2%
3	Daemar Kelly	G	Jr	6'5"	29-15	20.6	5.6	3.1	1.2	1.2	35.2%	25.6%	2.8	76.7%	21.9%
7	Hassan Washington	F	Jr	6'8"	29-14	16.6	4.7	3.2	0.6	1.9	59.9%	43.8%	0.6	44.4%	20.6%
10	Jao Ituka	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	14.1	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3	48.9%	34.4%	4.1	81.0%	27.4%
2	Carlos Coronado	G	Fr	6'3"	20-1	10.3	3.9	0.8	0.6	1.0	41.2%	20.8%	1.2	68.9%	26.2%
8	Ladji Kante	F	Fr	6'7"	17-0	9.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.6	43.8%	20.0%	0.9	65.0%	21.2%
23	Jaylen Wharton	F	Jr	6'9"	18-0	7.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.3	45.2%	—	0.0	42.1%	20.2%
11	Isaiah Washington	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	8.9	2.7	1.3	0.5	0.5	38.9%	11.1%	0.8	64.3%	22.3%
16	Isaiah Stewart	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	0.4	66.7%	11.0%
4	JJ Taylor	F	Jr	6'8"	3-2	21.0	8.7	2.7	0.3	3.0	41.7%	11.1%	3.0	68.8%	29.3%
21	Max Laskey	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	13.9%
15	Lataevyon Taylor	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Illinois

Against the spread

Season

13-15

Home

3-8

Road

10-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −10.6

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

8-20

Home

4-7

Road

4-13

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −4.7

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 9 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	AkronAdjEM #48	A	L 55–94	+23.5	L−15.5	156.0	U149	79.5	135.8	69.2
Mar 3	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	L 76–102	+10.0	L−16.0	149.5	O178	100.2	134.5	75.9
Feb 28	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 43–79	−1.5	L−37.5	133.5	U122	68.4	125.7	62.8
Feb 24	ToledoAdjEM #115	A	L 69–79	+12.5	W+2.5	150.0	U148	104.3	119.5	66.1
Feb 21	OhioAdjEM #233	H	L 66–74	+5.5	L−2.5	150.0	U140	102.2	114.6	64.6
Feb 17	BuffaloAdjEM #186	A	W 72–70	+8.5	W+10.5	147.5	U142	108.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	C MichiganAdjEM #283	A	L 46–88	+4.5	L−37.5	146.0	U134	67.4	128.9	68.3
Feb 11	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	L 52–68	+7.5	L−8.5	145.0	U120	74.6	97.6	69.7
Feb 7	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 75–74	+4.5	W+5.5	142.0	O149	104.8	103.4	71.6
Jan 31	#24Miami OHAdjEM #66	A	L 61–85	+17.0	L−7.0	155.5	U146	83.2	116.0	73.3

Bowling Green

Against the spread

Season

14-14-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

7-5

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −2.3

Covered 3 straightCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

11-17-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −1.9

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	ToledoAdjEM #115	N	L 76–77	+1.5	W+0.5	152.0	O153	111.6	113.1	68.1
Mar 6	E MichiganAdjEM #247	A	W 77–69	−5.0	W+3.0	143.0	O146	108.2	96.9	71.2
Feb 28	UMassAdjEM #184	H	W 81–62	−4.0	W+15.0	151.5	U143	123.5	94.5	65.6
Feb 24	W MichiganAdjEM #276	H	L 79–88	−12.0	L−21.0	149.0	O167	108.3	120.6	73.0
Feb 20	#22Miami OHAdjEM #66	A	L 77–91	+8.0	L−6.0	154.0	O168	104.1	123.0	74.0
Feb 17	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	L 71–78	−2.5	L−9.5	151.5	U149	97.9	107.5	72.5
Feb 14	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 80–70	−4.0	W+6.0	150.0	P150	122.0	106.7	65.6
Feb 11	N IllinoisAdjEM #341	A	W 68–52	−7.5	W+8.5	145.0	U120	97.6	74.6	69.7
Feb 7	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	A	L 54–91	+3.5	L−33.5	155.0	U145	71.8	121.0	75.2
Feb 3	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	W 77–52	−11.0	W+14.0	138.0	U129	123.0	83.1	62.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N IllinoisBowling Green

Efficiency

100.3

107.8

111.9

105.1

68.5

68.9

—

Shooting

47.6%

51.8%

48.5%

51.9%

30.9%

34.4%

65.7%

72.3%

38.3%

37.0%

Ball control & glass

21.8%

16.5%

16.3%

18.4%

30.3%

28.7%

30.0%

26.9%

11.7%

9.0%

14.5%

9.8%

Style

45.0%

34.2%

41.5%

48.7%

12.7%

19.8%

51.8%

48.5%

31.5%

28.7%

Roster

1.91

2.96

6'4.7"

6'4.4"

86.8%

20.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Illinois

Returning minutes: 86.8%Returning production: 90.1%

Lost

Dylan Ducommun 26.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Lataevyon Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Bowling Green

Returning minutes: 20.3%Returning production: 18.4%

Lost

Javontae Campbell 34.1 mpg, 18.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sam Towns 32.0 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Justin Thomas 24.3 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Troy Glover II 22.9 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Javon Ruffin 22.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mayar Wol 20.0 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jayden Johnson from SC State · 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
Juan Cranford Jr. from E Kentucky · 25.9 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
Christ Essandoko from South Carolina · 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
Tristan Beckford from South Florida · 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
Zach Howell no D1 minutes last season
Talan Staley no D1 minutes last season

Returns 20% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Feb 11	2025-26	Bowling Green 68 – 52 N Illinois

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.