Drake Bulldogs vs Missouri State Bears basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 21 · 3:00 PM ET · Great Southern Bank Arena, Springfield, MO
Non-conferenceESPN+Great Southern Bank Arena, Springfield, MO
Drake
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #195
@
Missouri St
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-13 conf
Efficiency #188
Sat, Nov 21 · 3:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Drake is the faster team (71.1, #170 of 365) and Missouri St the slower (66.3, #283). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#214
Drake
69.2#275
Missouri St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Missouri St has the ball−2.4
Drake has the ball+2.7
Missouri St has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 16.7% #177 · DRKE forces 29.6% #4 · ~17 turnovers−5.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.1% #191 · DRKE allows 55.6% #269+3.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.0% #124 · DRKE allows 25.9% #79−1.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 43.8% #12 · DRKE allows 53.3% #321 · FT 67.3% #338+0.9
Drake has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.8% #128 · MOST allows 52.0% #217+2.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.5% #302 · MOST forces 16.9% #159 · ~14 turnovers−1.4
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · MOST allows 32.1% #261+0.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 59.6% #16 · MOST allows 40.2% #304 · FT 61.3% #299+0.6
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersDrakeoffense vsMissouri Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Drake shoots
35.3
9.8
5.9
49.0
Missouri St allows
30.9
12.7
20.7
35.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 72.2%#35 | 68.2%#365 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 20.0%#275 | 33.3%#31 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#174 | 40.1%#245 | 34.7% |
| Three | 32.0%#181 | 34.4%#209 | 32.5% |
Missouri Stoffense vsDrakedefense
Share of shots by zone
Missouri St shoots
31.5
13.7
13.9
41.0
Drake allows
43.9
9.8
19.5
26.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.9%#39 | 66.7%#274 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#235 | 0.0%#1 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#151 | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.0%#236 | 42.9%#324 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersDrake
+9.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#59 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
74.1%
#79
Turnover %
22.5%
#302
Forced TO %
29.6%
#4
FT rate
59.6%
#16
FT allowed
53.3%
#321
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.9
Ball security−3.0
Forcing turnovers+8.2
Foul shots drawn+5.8
Foul shots allowed−4.0
Missouri St
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#130 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#124
Def reb %
67.9%
#261
Turnover %
16.7%
#177
Forced TO %
16.9%
#159
FT rate
43.8%
#12
FT allowed
40.2%
#304
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−1.3
Drake has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.4 (#59 of 365) to Missouri St’s +1.2 (#130).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Drake2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-2 | 29.5 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 52.6% | 33.3% | 6.0 | 66.7% | 23.8% | Active | |
| 4 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 61.5% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 60.0% | 41.6% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 5'11" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 13.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 71.4% | 57.1% | 3.5 | 60.0% | 24.7% | Active | |
| 6 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 24.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 81.8% | — | 0.0 | 42.9% | 17.3% | Active | |
| 21 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 77.8% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 15.0% | Active | |
| 10 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 23.1% | 18.2% | 5.5 | 100.0% | 23.0% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 54.5% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 31.4% | Active | |
| 2 | F | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 90.0% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 18.9% | Active | |
| 20 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 44.4% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 27.2% | Active | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 5'10" | 2-0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 25.4% | Active | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 24.2% | Missed last | |
| 7 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Missed last |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesDrake
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −7.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −8.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Southern | H | W 75–68 | −14.0 | L−7.0 | 151.0 | U143 | 105.5 | 95.7 | 71.1 |
| Nov 4 | Central College Dutch | H | W 101–48 | — | — | — | — | 139.3 | 66.2 | 72.5 |
| Mar 7 | UIC | N | L 51–72 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 143.5 | U123 | 82.1 | 115.9 | 62.1 |
| Mar 6 | Belmont | N | W 100–79 | +12.5 | W+33.5 | 153.5 | O179 | 138.6 | 109.5 | 72.2 |
| Mar 5 | S Illinois | N | W 67–63 | +4.5 | W+8.5 | 138.0 | U130 | 104.0 | 97.8 | 64.4 |
| Mar 1 | Northern Iowa | H | L 53–75 | +4.0 | L−18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 84.2 | 119.1 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Valparaiso | A | L 71–74 | +3.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | U145 | 111.6 | 116.3 | 63.6 |
| Feb 18 | S Illinois | H | L 61–66 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 150.0 | U127 | 86.4 | 93.5 | 70.6 |
| Feb 15 | Northern Iowa | A | L 62–86 | +8.5 | L−15.5 | 138.5 | O148 | 94.5 | 131.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 12 | UIC | H | L 70–80 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 146.5 | O150 | 106.7 | 122.0 | 65.6 |
Missouri St
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
7-8
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −1.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-12-1
Home
9-6
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg vs total +3.1
Over in 2 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Newman Jets | H | W 89–62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 6 | Truman State Bulldogs | H | W 79–62 | — | — | — | — | 108.5 | 85.2 | 72.8 |
| Nov 3 | Lincoln (MO) Blue Tigers | H | W 88–60 | — | — | — | — | 125.3 | 85.4 | 70.3 |
| Mar 13 | Louisiana Tech | N | L 66–69 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 135.0 | P135 | 116.1 | 121.4 | 56.8 |
| Mar 11 | Liberty | N | W 77–69 | +5.0 | W+13.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 120.6 | 108.0 | 63.9 |
| Mar 10 | FIU | N | W 75–72 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 115.1 | 110.5 | 65.1 |
| Mar 7 | MTSU | H | L 63–75 | −2.5 | L−14.5 | 146.5 | U138 | 95.0 | 113.1 | 66.3 |
| Mar 5 | Western KY | H | W 87–74 | +1.0 | W+14.0 | 152.5 | O161 | 130.9 | 111.3 | 66.5 |
| Feb 28 | Sam Houston | A | L 81–86 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 154.5 | O167 | 119.8 | 127.1 | 67.6 |
| Feb 26 | Louisiana Tech | A | L 70–72 | +2.5 | W+0.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 105.4 | 108.4 | 66.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeDrakeMissouri St
Efficiency
105.4
106.0
107.7
107.7
70.2
69.2
-10.4
—
Shooting
53.8%
51.1%
59.3%
52.2%
32.0%
33.0%
61.3%
67.3%
59.6%
43.8%
Ball control & glass
22.5%
16.7%
29.6%
16.9%
33.3%
32.0%
25.9%
32.1%
14.1%
9.6%
11.1%
13.6%
Style
48.1%
41.3%
40.0%
41.1%
10.7%
10.4%
62.5%
56.6%
36.3%
25.0%
Roster
2.89
2.30
6'3.9"
6'4.7"
45.6%
21.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputDrake
Returning minutes: 45.6%Returning production: 39.9%
Lost
- Jalen Quinn 33.6 mpg, 19.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Okku Federiko 23.3 mpg, 8.6 ppg · transferred to Northwestern
- Jaehshon Thomas 20.7 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Carr 11.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Braden Appelhans 10.9 mpg, 4.2 ppg · transferred to Xavier
- Wilguens Jr. Exacte 10.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys
Added
- Gabe Oldham from Denver · 25.6 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Jon Carroll from Morehead St · 24.6 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Dre Kindell from Wichita St · 17.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Bryson Bahl no D1 minutes last season
- LJ Rush no D1 minutes last season
- Miles Flemons no D1 minutes last season
Returns 46% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Missouri St
Returning minutes: 21.9%Returning production: 18.4%
Lost
- Kobi Williams 34.4 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Tulsa
- Keith Palek III 32.7 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zaxton King 27.0 mpg, 7.2 ppg · transferred to Illinois St
- Michael Osei-Bonsu 24.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Darrion Sutton 13.7 mpg, 4.6 ppg · transferred to SE Missouri
- Antwan Burnett 13.4 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Kevin Stubblefield Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Andrej Acimovic no D1 minutes last season
- Amare Oba no D1 minutes last season
- Leano Rolle no D1 minutes last season
- Matt Gray no D1 minutes last season
- Dylan Rowe no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 21
- SC Upstate at UNC Greensboro · 11:00 AM ET
- Siena at Bucknell · 11:00 AM ET
- Gardner-Webb at VMI · 12:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Boston U · 12:00 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at Michigan St · 12:00 PM ET
- Denver at E Michigan · 1:00 PM ET
- Kent State at Cleveland St · 1:00 PM ET
- Mercyhurst vs W Illinois · 1:30 PM ET
- Lafayette at Syracuse · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bowling Green · 2:00 PM ET
- Fordham vs Portland · 2:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Wichita St · 2:00 PM ET
- Navy at Rider · 2:00 PM ET
- Little Rock at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Morgan St · 2:00 PM ET
- Stony Brook at Saint Peter's · 2:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at Austin Peay · 3:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Milwaukee · 3:00 PM ET
- Army at Binghamton · 3:30 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Jacksonville · 4:00 PM ET
- South Florida at George Mason · 4:00 PM ET
- Penn at La Salle · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at ETSU · 4:00 PM ET
- UAlbany at Canisius · 4:00 PM ET
- UC Irvine vs San Diego · 4:30 PM ET
- Air Force at UTSA · 5:00 PM ET
- Northeastern at Stonehill · 5:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss vs Nicholls · 5:00 PM ET
- Winthrop at Wofford · 5:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at Georgetown · 6:00 PM ET
- Maine at UMass · 6:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Norfolk St · 6:00 PM ET
- W Carolina at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Vermont · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at Mercer · 7:00 PM ET
- CA Baptist vs LMU · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Cal Poly · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Radford at Chattanooga · 7:00 PM ET
- Michigan at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Presbyterian at Tennessee Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Oral Roberts · 8:00 PM ET
- Troy vs Valparaiso · 8:00 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Southern · 8:30 PM ET
- Washington St vs Duke · 11:00 PM ET
- Bradley at Pacific · TBD
- Queens at LSU · TBD
- New Hampshire at New Haven · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.