Detroit Mercy Titans vs Michigan State Spartans basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 21 · 12:00 PM ET · Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Michigan St is the faster team (72.9, #114 of 365) and Detroit Mercy the slower (67.3, #279). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 30.0%#356 | 35.7%#8 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#45 | 21.4%#66 | 34.7% |
| Three | 17.9%#354 | 26.2%#68 | 32.5% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 75.0%#14 | 70.6%#311 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 22.2%#270 | 60.0%#329 | 34.7% |
| Three | 40.4%#55 | 30.8%#142 | 32.5% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineMichigan St has more extra scoring chances per game: +11.1 (#47 of 365) to Detroit Mercy’s −24.4 (#358).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has not| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | C | So | 7'1" | 1-1 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.2% | Active | |
| 11 | G | So | 5'8" | 1-1 | 28.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 4.0 | — | 17.2% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 1-1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 30.8% | 20.0% | 10.0 | — | 36.5% | Active | |
| 20 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 1-1 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.5% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 31.8% | 33.3% | 3.0 | — | 44.4% | Active | |
| 15 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 12.9% | Active | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 32.3% | Active | |
| 2 | G | So | 6'6" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 3.0 | — | 16.4% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 33.4% | Active | |
| 9 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 22.5% | Active | |
| 8 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 30.0% | Active | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 10.0% | Active | |
| 10 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 88.6% | Active |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Xavier | A | L 55–100 | +35.5 | L−9.5 | 156.0 | U155 | 63.9 | 116.2 | 86.1 |
| Nov 6 | Marquette | A | L 32–93 | +32.0 | L−29.0 | 155.0 | U125 | 47.5 | 138.1 | 67.3 |
| Mar 10 | Wright St | N | L 63–66 | +5.0 | W+2.0 | 153.5 | U129 | 92.4 | 96.8 | 68.2 |
| Mar 9 | Robert Morris | N | W 70–64 | +4.0 | W+10.0 | 146.5 | U134 | 111.1 | 101.5 | 63.0 |
| Mar 4 | Milwaukee | H | W 84–63 | −1.0 | W+20.0 | 151.5 | U147 | 124.9 | 93.7 | 67.2 |
| Feb 28 | Oakland | A | W 95–89 | +8.0 | W+14.0 | 161.5 | O184 | 131.7 | 123.4 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | Robert Morris | A | L 62–73 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 150.5 | U135 | 97.5 | 114.8 | 63.6 |
| Feb 22 | Green Bay | H | W 74–70 | −1.0 | W+3.0 | 147.5 | U144 | 107.2 | 101.4 | 69.0 |
| Feb 20 | Milwaukee | H | W 91–86 | +1.0 | W+6.0 | 153.0 | O177 | 129.7 | 122.5 | 70.2 |
| Feb 15 | Youngstown St | H | W 76–70 | +3.0 | W+9.0 | 150.5 | U146 | 106.3 | 97.9 | 71.5 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | #2Duke | N | W 79–73 | +7.5 | W+13.5 | 147.0 | O152 | 108.3 | 100.1 | 72.9 |
| Nov 5 | Toledo | H | W 91–61 | −26.0 | W+4.0 | 155.0 | U152 | 124.0 | 83.1 | 73.4 |
| Nov 2 | Quinnipiac | H | W 96–59 | −30.0 | W+7.0 | 153.5 | O155 | 132.6 | 81.5 | 72.4 |
| Mar 27 | #2UConn | N | L 63–67 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 136.0 | U130 | 99.1 | 105.4 | 63.6 |
| Mar 21 | #6Louisville | N | W 77–69 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 115.0 | 103.1 | 66.9 |
| Mar 19 | #14N Dakota St | N | W 92–67 | −16.0 | W+9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 126.4 | 92.0 | 72.8 |
| Mar 13 | UCLA | N | L 84–88 | −5.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O172 | 125.9 | 131.9 | 66.7 |
| Mar 8 | #3Michigan | A | L 80–90 | +10.5 | W+0.5 | 152.0 | O170 | 112.5 | 126.5 | 71.1 |
| Mar 5 | Rutgers | H | W 91–87 | −19.5 | L−15.5 | 142.0 | O178 | 126.1 | 120.6 | 72.1 |
| Mar 1 | Indiana | A | W 77–64 | −3.0 | W+10.0 | 144.0 | U141 | 128.1 | 106.5 | 60.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Orlando Lovejoy 30.0 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to Green Bay
- TJ Nadeau 25.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Tulane
- Legend Geeter 23.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ryan Kalambay 20.0 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to St Bonaventure
- Nate Johnson 8.3 mpg, 2.3 ppg · transferred to Alabama A&M
- Jared Lary 7.9 mpg, 1.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keaton Aldridge Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- James Martin no D1 minutes last season
- Tyler Owens no D1 minutes last season
- Dante Favor no D1 minutes last season
- Jordan Briggs no D1 minutes last season
- Vladyslav Semerych no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Jaxon Kohler 27.7 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to BYU
- Carson Cooper 26.7 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Divine Ugochukwu 10.1 mpg, 3.2 ppg · transferred to LSU
- Trey Fort 9.7 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Denham Wojcik 4.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Sanders 0.7 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anton Bonke from Charlotte · 25.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Jasiah Jervis no D1 minutes last season
- Ethan Taylor no D1 minutes last season
- Kaleb Glenn no D1 minutes last season
- Matthew Watkins no D1 minutes last season
- Julius Avent no D1 minutes last season
Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 21 | 2025-26 | Detroit Mercy 56 – 84 Michigan St |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.