CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCase Gym, Boston, MA
Columbia
Efficiency #166
2025-26: 16-12 · 5-9 conf
@
Boston U
Efficiency #237
2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
73.1
win 46%
Projected
74.4
win 54%
No line posted yet.
Model: BU −1.3 · total 147.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Boston U 65.5, Columbia 68.0 → 65.2 possessions
−6.8
Boston U offense vs Columbia defense
+1.8
Columbia offense vs Boston U defense
+4.3
Projected total
147.5
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Boston U offense vs Columbia defense
+1.8
Columbia offense vs Boston U defense
−4.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Boston U by 1.3
1.3
Columbia side ◂▸ Boston U side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Boston U.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Columbia is the faster team (67.1, #236 of 365) and Boston U the slower (63.5, #361). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.5
model
Projected team totals
73.1 / 74.4
Columbia / Boston U
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#211
Columbia
65.5#357
Boston U

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBoston U
Where Boston U scores: shooting
Boston U shoots an effective 57.5% (#11); Columbia allows 51.2% (#168). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Boston U averages 63.5 possessions per 40, Columbia 67.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageColumbia
Where Columbia scores: shooting
Columbia shoots an effective 53.5% (#83); Boston U allows 53.6% (#288). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Boston U, Boston U's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Columbia at about 38.7% of its shots from three, Boston U about 40.7%.
GlassBoston U
Boston U gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Boston U's offense.
GlassColumbia
Columbia owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Columbia's offense.
Columbia has the ball
OffenseBoston U allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #83
53.6% #288
+3.5 pt/100
19.3% #333
13.0% #353
+1.1 pt/100
36.1% #23
28.0% #65
+1.7 pt/100
28.6% #337
30.5% #73
-0.7 pt/100
70.1% #271
—
-0.2 pt/100
Columbia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100
Boston U has the ball
OffenseColumbia allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #11
51.2% #168
+5.0 pt/100
17.8% #255
15.0% #288
+0.7 pt/100
28.0% #269
27.2% #42
-2.0 pt/100
31.4% #270
33.5% #140
-0.3 pt/100
73.4% #157
—
+0.1 pt/100
Boston U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Columbiaoffense vsBoston Udefense
Share of shots by zone
Columbia shoots
Boston U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.8%#16754.3%#4458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.0%#22253.8%#36439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.3%#13745.4%#35238.0%
Three35.9%#6136.6%#33033.7%
Boston Uoffense vsColumbiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Boston U shoots
Columbia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.0%#7355.9%#8458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)54.8%#135.6%#7739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.4%#2042.1%#30838.0%
Three38.8%#535.2%#25833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Columbia
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365
Off reb %
36.1%
#23
Def reb %
72.8%
#42
Turnover %
19.3%
#333
Forced TO %
15.0%
#288
FT rate
28.6%
#337
FT allowed
33.5%
#140
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Boston U
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365
Off reb %
28.0%
#269
Def reb %
72.0%
#65
Turnover %
17.8%
#255
Forced TO %
13.0%
#353
FT rate
31.4%
#270
FT allowed
30.5%
#73
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2

Columbia has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.2 (#241 of 365) to Boston U’s −2.8 (#298).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Columbia2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Kenny NolandGSr6'2"28-2833.117.13.43.72.554.5%37.5%6.992.1%30.7%
3Blair ThompsonFSr6'8"28-2831.011.44.81.10.859.9%40.9%3.964.1%19.5%
14Mason RitterFSo6'9"28-2824.47.35.11.61.855.4%14.3%0.566.1%19.6%
24Miles FranklinGFr6'5"26-2223.99.54.20.91.047.9%22.9%2.764.9%25.9%
4Gerard O'KeefeGSo6'3"27-421.68.51.91.00.660.8%42.4%3.769.6%20.6%
10Connor IgoeFFr6'7"28-619.88.35.63.01.953.8%34.1%1.663.2%28.0%
12Ryan SoulisFSo6'10"26-1720.05.84.61.51.351.2%21.4%1.163.3%19.8%
7Hampton SandersGJr6'0"28-015.34.22.02.31.249.5%37.0%1.674.3%19.5%
22Richard NwekeFJr6'7"20-09.13.02.40.50.351.1%—0.060.9%20.3%
23Zine Eddine BedriFSr6'10"5-524.412.87.42.24.258.7%44.4%1.858.8%37.4%
6Leland ColemanFSo6'7"15-05.21.31.50.30.233.3%0.0%0.342.9%22.5%
1Avery BrownGSr6'4"3-215.04.32.00.32.050.0%75.0%1.350.0%25.3%
8Josiah CunninghamGSo6'2"5-06.61.80.60.20.844.4%0.0%0.633.3%24.4%
0Edwin BaiGFr6'2"4-02.00.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%0.3—7.0%
21Dan VesseyGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Nicolo RomanelliGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Nigel ClarksonFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
ColumbiaBoston U
Efficiency
109.0
111.2
108.6
114.5
68.0
65.5
—
—
Shooting
53.5%
57.5%
53.2%
56.9%
35.9%
38.8%
70.1%
73.4%
28.6%
31.4%
Ball control & glass
19.3%
17.8%
15.0%
13.0%
36.1%
28.0%
27.2%
28.0%
10.1%
10.8%
9.9%
8.9%
Style
37.5%
43.8%
47.0%
40.7%
9.9%
7.0%
54.3%
53.6%
32.6%
23.5%
Roster
2.59
2.04
6'5.7"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Columbia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Boston U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Nov 182025-26Boston U 49 – 54 Columbia

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.