CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHawkins Arena, Macon, GA
Charleston So
Efficiency #220
2025-26: 15-17 · 6-11 conf
@
Mercer
Efficiency #161
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
76.5
win 29%
Projected
82.8
win 71%
No line posted yet.
Model: MER −6.3 · total 159.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Mercer 69.3, Charleston So 71.1 → 72.2 possessions
+8.3
Mercer offense vs Charleston So defense
+2.5
Charleston So offense vs Mercer defense
+0.3
Projected total
159.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Mercer offense vs Charleston So defense
+2.5
Charleston So offense vs Mercer defense
−0.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Mercer by 6.3
6.3
Charleston So side ◂▸ Mercer side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.4 against +6.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Mercer.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Charleston So is the faster team (73.2, #10 of 365) and Mercer the slower (69.5, #115). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
159.3
model
Projected team totals
76.5 / 82.8
Charleston So / Mercer
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.1#13
Charleston So
69.3#96
Mercer
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMercer
Where Mercer scores: ball control
Mercer turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#69); Charleston So forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#361). Expect about 13.2%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Mercer averages 69.5 possessions per 40, Charleston So 73.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashMercer
Style match: ball movement
Mercer creates off the dribble (assists on 46.2% of its baskets); Charleston So breaks up passing offenses (assists on 39.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 39.9% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageCharleston So
Where Charleston So scores: shooting
Charleston So shoots an effective 54.1% (#66); Mercer allows 52.5% (#242). Expect about 53.5%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
Charleston So has the ball
OffenseMercer allowsvs D1 avg
54.1% #66
52.5% #242
+3.2 pt/100
18.5% #298
17.0% #155
-1.4 pt/100
29.4% #223
33.2% #303
+0.4 pt/100
30.5% #296
29.7% #54
-0.7 pt/100
64.8% #360
—
-0.7 pt/100
Charleston So net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100
Mercer has the ball
OffenseCharleston So allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #98
46.9% #21
-1.6 pt/100
15.0% #69
12.8% #361
+4.4 pt/100
32.6% #102
30.3% #174
+0.9 pt/100
39.2% #74
43.3% #341
+0.9 pt/100
73.0% #167
—
+0.1 pt/100
Mercer net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersCharleston Sooffense vsMercerdefense
Share of shots by zone
Charleston So shoots
40.6
3.6
6.5
49.3
Mercer allows
37.9
4.9
15.2
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.1%#193 | 55.1%#59 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 49.2%#13 | 37.2%#115 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#256 | 44.8%#348 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#78 | 36.2%#311 | 33.7% |
Merceroffense vsCharleston Sodefense
Share of shots by zone
Mercer shoots
38.1
4.8
18.6
38.4
Charleston So allows
39.3
9.6
20.4
30.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#106 | 51.7%#14 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.4%#94 | 44.2%#275 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#154 | 36.6%#122 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#87 | 31.9%#58 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersCharleston So
−7.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#360 of 365
Off reb %
29.4%
#223
Def reb %
69.7%
#174
Turnover %
18.5%
#298
Forced TO %
12.8%
#361
FT rate
30.5%
#296
FT allowed
43.3%
#341
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−2.1
Mercer
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#41 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#102
Def reb %
66.8%
#303
Turnover %
15.0%
#69
Forced TO %
17.0%
#155
FT rate
39.2%
#74
FT allowed
29.7%
#54
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Mercer has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#41 of 365) to Charleston So’s −7.3 (#360).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Charleston So2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A'lahn Sumler | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-18 | 30.4 | 18.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 55.4% | 39.6% | 5.3 | 65.4% | 34.0% | |
| 12 | Jesse Hafemeister | F | Sr | 6'5" | 32-30 | 26.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 58.5% | 39.0% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brycen Blaine | G | Jr | 6'5" | 25-7 | 28.0 | 17.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 51.0% | 34.6% | 8.7 | 78.3% | 36.6% | |
| 5 | Jacob Taylor | G | Fr | 6'3" | 30-24 | 20.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 53.3% | 36.1% | 2.0 | 74.4% | 14.7% | |
| 8 | Luke Williams | G | Sr | 6'0" | 20-18 | 31.1 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 56.8% | 39.6% | 5.0 | 64.5% | 18.0% | |
| 7 | Nate Brafford | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-12 | 19.3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 54.3% | 36.0% | 3.1 | 60.7% | 15.4% | |
| 23 | Reis Jones | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-15 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 58.9% | — | 0.0 | 54.1% | 20.6% | |
| 34 | Lase Olalere | F | So | 6'10" | 32-17 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 66.3% | — | 0.0 | 44.4% | 17.1% | |
| 0 | Armari Carraway | G | Jr | 6'0" | 24-14 | 17.0 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 48.0% | 32.8% | 5.7 | 69.0% | 23.8% | |
| 2 | Jaquias Franklin | G | Sr | 6'1" | 24-3 | 14.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 48.8% | 29.6% | 2.3 | 81.8% | 18.5% | |
| 4 | Trent Coleman | F | Sr | 6'7" | 24-1 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 60.7% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 71.9% | 15.1% | |
| 22 | Devin Brafford | F | So | 7'1" | 19-1 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 52.9% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 52.6% | 22.4% | |
| 24 | Easton Hupp | G | Fr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 42.9% | 22.2% | 2.3 | 100.0% | 42.7% | |
| 10 | AJ Gladieux | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 6 | Anthony Gause | G | So | 6'3" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.9% | |
| 13 | Kaleb Lofton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Mercer2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baraka Okojie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.1 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 47.7% | 32.5% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 33.4% | |
| 26 | Armani Mighty | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 53.9% | 22.3% | |
| 1 | Zaire Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 36.0% | 6.2 | 83.6% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brady Shoulders | G | So | 6'6" | 29-29 | 30.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 49.8% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 70.4% | 18.6% | |
| 3 | Quinton Perkins II | G | So | 6'1" | 28-16 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55.4% | 40.8% | 4.5 | 85.7% | 21.2% | |
| 2 | Connor Serven | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 58.9% | 32.0% | 0.9 | 69.2% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Kyle Cuffe Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-14 | 16.5 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 33.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 10 | Tristan Gross | G | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 43.5% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 16.2% | |
| 8 | Bendji Pierre | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.4% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 58.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | TJ Grant | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-1 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 9.3% | |
| 23 | Braeden Carlsen | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 36.2% | 22.7% | 2.8 | 50.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Jaydon Cole | G | Fr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 50.0% | 29.0% | |
| 18 | Pero Zubac | F | Fr | 6'10" | 7-0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 15 | Alex Koch | F | So | 6'8" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 0 | NJ Nganga | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Petras Padegimas | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Charleston So2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A'lahn Sumler | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-18 | 30.4 | 18.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 55.4% | 39.6% | 5.3 | 65.4% | 34.0% | |
| 12 | Jesse Hafemeister | F | Sr | 6'5" | 32-30 | 26.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 58.5% | 39.0% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brycen Blaine | G | Jr | 6'5" | 25-7 | 28.0 | 17.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 51.0% | 34.6% | 8.7 | 78.3% | 36.6% | |
| 5 | Jacob Taylor | G | Fr | 6'3" | 30-24 | 20.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 53.3% | 36.1% | 2.0 | 74.4% | 14.7% | |
| 8 | Luke Williams | G | Sr | 6'0" | 20-18 | 31.1 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 56.8% | 39.6% | 5.0 | 64.5% | 18.0% | |
| 7 | Nate Brafford | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-12 | 19.3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 54.3% | 36.0% | 3.1 | 60.7% | 15.4% | |
| 23 | Reis Jones | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-15 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 58.9% | — | 0.0 | 54.1% | 20.6% | |
| 34 | Lase Olalere | F | So | 6'10" | 32-17 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 66.3% | — | 0.0 | 44.4% | 17.1% | |
| 0 | Armari Carraway | G | Jr | 6'0" | 24-14 | 17.0 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 48.0% | 32.8% | 5.7 | 69.0% | 23.8% | |
| 2 | Jaquias Franklin | G | Sr | 6'1" | 24-3 | 14.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 48.8% | 29.6% | 2.3 | 81.8% | 18.5% | |
| 4 | Trent Coleman | F | Sr | 6'7" | 24-1 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 60.7% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 71.9% | 15.1% | |
| 22 | Devin Brafford | F | So | 7'1" | 19-1 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 52.9% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 52.6% | 22.4% | |
| 24 | Easton Hupp | G | Fr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 42.9% | 22.2% | 2.3 | 100.0% | 42.7% | |
| 10 | AJ Gladieux | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 6 | Anthony Gause | G | So | 6'3" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.9% | |
| 13 | Kaleb Lofton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Charleston So
Against the spread
Season
14-15
Home
6-5
Road
7-9
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.8
Covered 3 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-10
Home
8-3
Road
9-7
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +8.1
Over 4 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Winthrop | N | L 81–86 | +5.5 | W+0.5 | 163.5 | O167 | 104.8 | 111.2 | 77.3 |
| Feb 28 | UNC Asheville | A | W 92–75 | +4.0 | W+21.0 | 149.5 | O167 | 129.9 | 105.9 | 70.8 |
| Feb 26 | Winthrop | H | W 86–84 | +8.0 | W+10.0 | 164.0 | O170 | 107.4 | 104.9 | 80.1 |
| Feb 21 | Longwood | H | L 96–107 2OT | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | O203 | 112.9 | 125.8 | 85.0 |
| Feb 17 | Gardner-Webb | H | W 75–66 | −17.5 | L−8.5 | 160.5 | U141 | 100.9 | 88.8 | 74.4 |
| Feb 14 | Radford | A | L 80–90 | +4.5 | L−5.5 | 162.0 | O170 | 103.8 | 116.7 | 77.1 |
| Feb 12 | Presbyterian | H | W 84–67 | −1.5 | W+15.5 | 146.5 | O151 | 124.5 | 99.3 | 67.5 |
| Feb 7 | SC Upstate | A | L 94–100 OT | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 151.5 | O194 | 122.1 | 129.9 | 77.0 |
| Feb 4 | High Point | A | L 55–80 | +14.0 | L−11.0 | 162.5 | U135 | 78.1 | 113.6 | 70.4 |
| Jan 29 | Radford | H | L 75–84 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 162.5 | U159 | 95.7 | 107.2 | 78.4 |
Mercer
Against the spread
Season
18-10-1
Home
8-3-1
Road
10-6
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-14-1
Home
9-3
Road
5-10-1
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −1.4
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 10 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | W Carolina | N | L 73–77 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 154.0 | U150 | 108.5 | 114.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | ETSU | H | W 82–76 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 128.4 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | W Carolina | A | L 74–78 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 107.8 | 113.6 | 68.6 |
| Feb 21 | Samford | H | W 89–86 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 156.5 | O175 | 126.4 | 122.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 19 | Chattanooga | H | L 90–94 | −10.0 | L−14.0 | 151.5 | O184 | 138.6 | 144.7 | 65.0 |
| Feb 14 | The Citadel | A | W 70–54 | −12.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U124 | 113.6 | 87.6 | 61.6 |
| Feb 11 | Furman | H | W 69–64 | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 151.5 | U133 | 103.6 | 96.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 7 | Samford | A | L 49–69 | −2.0 | L−22.0 | 161.0 | U118 | 74.5 | 104.9 | 65.8 |
| Feb 5 | Chattanooga | A | L 75–79 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 155.0 | U154 | 104.0 | 109.5 | 72.2 |
| Jan 31 | VMI | H | W 95–81 | −18.0 | L−4.0 | 153.5 | O176 | 130.7 | 111.4 | 72.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCharleston SoMercer
Efficiency
106.9
111.3
109.1
110.5
71.1
69.3
—
—
Shooting
54.1%
53.1%
54.6%
53.0%
35.6%
35.6%
64.8%
73.0%
30.5%
39.2%
Ball control & glass
18.5%
15.0%
12.8%
17.0%
29.4%
32.6%
30.3%
33.2%
10.6%
8.8%
10.0%
8.1%
Style
49.5%
39.2%
40.6%
40.9%
11.0%
16.3%
54.9%
46.2%
39.5%
26.8%
Roster
3.20
3.07
6'5.1"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCharleston So
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Mercer
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.