CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceEagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA

South Florida

Efficiency #36

2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf

George Mason

Efficiency #83

2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf

Sat, Nov 21 · TBD

74.8

win 51%

Projected

74.4

win 49%

No line posted yet.

Model: USF −0.4 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, South Florida 71.0 → 68.6 possessions

+0.6

George Mason offense vs South Florida defense

−1.9

South Florida offense vs George Mason defense

+2.4

Projected total

149.3

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

George Mason offense vs South Florida defense

−1.9

South Florida offense vs George Mason defense

−2.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

South Florida by 0.4

0.4

South Florida side ◂▸ George Mason side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Florida is the faster team (73.0, #12 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.3

model

Projected team totals

74.8 / 74.4

South Florida / George Mason

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.0#15

South Florida

65.9#345

George Mason

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

George Mason averages 64.7 possessions per 40, South Florida 73.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageSouth Florida

Where South Florida scores: the offensive glass

South Florida rebounds 38.1% of its own misses (#7); George Mason lets opponents grab 28.3% of their own misses (#79). Expect about 34.8%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSouth Florida

South Florida protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for South Florida's offense.

DefenseSouth Florida

South Florida's ball-hawking

South Florida ranks #21 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.2% of George Mason's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashSouth Florida

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

South Florida (#55 in free-throw rate) against George Mason (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.9%. Historically George Mason's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

South Florida has the ball

OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #209

49.5% #83

-1.8 pt/100

15.1% #74

15.4% #256

+2.2 pt/100

38.1% #7

28.3% #79

+2.7 pt/100

40.4% #55

28.9% #43

-0.1 pt/100

74.6% #101

—

+0.2 pt/100

South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

George Mason has the ball

OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #113

48.8% #58

-0.6 pt/100

15.8% #122

19.1% #42

-1.2 pt/100

31.3% #149

31.9% #252

+0.9 pt/100

41.1% #44

39.1% #287

+0.7 pt/100

72.5% #188

—

+0.0 pt/100

George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

South Floridaoffense vsGeorge Masondefense

Share of shots by zone

South Florida shoots

46.7

5.1

4.1

44.1

George Mason allows

36.2

7.3

14.6

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.0%#299	60.1%#234	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#227	38.8%#157	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#365	30.9%#8	38.0%
Three	32.5%#255	32.6%#91	33.7%

George Masonoffense vsSouth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

George Mason shoots

39.9

8.7

16.4

35.0

South Florida allows

35.9

8.0

16.8

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.8%#40	54.7%#57	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#34	34.5%#52	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.0%#313	34.8%#69	38.0%
Three	33.3%#214	34.5%#218	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

South Florida

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365

Off reb %

38.1%

Def reb %

68.1%

#252

Turnover %

15.1%

#74

Forced TO %

19.1%

#42

FT rate

40.4%

#55

FT allowed

39.1%

#287

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.5

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

George Mason

+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#149

Def reb %

71.7%

#79

Turnover %

15.8%

#122

Forced TO %

15.4%

#256

FT rate

41.1%

#44

FT allowed

28.9%

#43

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed+1.6

South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to George Mason’s +4.1 (#36).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

George Mason2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Kory Mincy	G	Jr	6'2"	33-32	34.0	14.3	3.6	2.9	1.7	53.5%	38.9%	5.3	88.7%	25.5%
2	Jahari Long	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	33.8	12.2	3.3	4.0	1.8	53.8%	37.7%	3.9	82.6%	22.1%
35	Riley Allenspach	F	Jr	6'11"	32-31	24.9	13.6	6.1	0.8	1.3	60.2%	31.3%	2.1	68.0%	30.2%
0	Masai Troutman	G	Sr	6'5"	31-22	25.1	8.4	3.4	1.2	1.3	49.2%	33.3%	3.1	81.1%	21.9%
5	Fatt Hill	G	Sr	6'5"	23-4	24.1	10.3	3.7	1.9	1.9	51.6%	28.0%	1.1	73.7%	27.9%
13	Malik Presley	G	Jr	6'6"	33-22	16.1	3.2	1.5	0.8	0.8	53.5%	31.8%	0.7	44.4%	14.4%
10	Emmanuel Kanga	F	Fr	6'8"	32-0	13.3	4.6	5.3	0.5	0.5	58.1%	—	0.0	59.5%	20.3%
23	Nick Ellington	F	Sr	6'8"	31-5	12.9	4.7	3.1	0.3	0.6	57.1%	100.0%	0.0	64.7%	21.9%
9	Stas Sivka	F	So	6'10"	29-2	11.0	2.3	1.4	0.4	0.4	47.4%	28.2%	1.3	73.3%	14.7%
4	Dola Adebayo	F	Sr	6'8"	27-13	11.6	3.4	2.3	0.4	0.6	46.2%	26.1%	0.9	80.8%	20.7%
11	Devin Booker	G	Fr	6'4"	25-0	8.3	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.3	35.6%	22.6%	1.2	53.3%	19.8%
1	Brayden O'Connor	G	Sr	6'5"	1-1	15.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	25.0%	0.0%	3.0	—	44.0%
14	T.J. Prosise	G	So	6'3"	6-0	1.8	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	22.2%
12	Ben Woodward	G	Jr	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	22.5%
7	Isaiah Skinn	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Ryan-Preston Mendy	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

South Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-5

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.6

Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

5-9

Road

7-5

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.3

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#6LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 79–83	+4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	105.0	110.3	75.2
Mar 15	Wichita StAdjEM #60	N	W 70–55	−6.0	W+9.0	150.5	U125	102.6	80.6	68.2
Mar 14	CharlotteAdjEM #193	N	W 86–64	−15.5	W+6.5	153.5	U150	125.1	93.1	68.7
Mar 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 83–60	−17.5	W+5.5	155.5	U143	125.9	91.0	65.9
Mar 5	MemphisAdjEM #152	A	W 96–89	−7.5	L−0.5	161.5	O185	123.8	114.8	77.5
Mar 1	TulaneAdjEM #239	H	W 90–62	−15.0	W+13.0	154.5	U152	123.5	85.1	72.8
Feb 25	RiceAdjEM #255	A	W 75–56	−11.0	W+8.0	157.0	U131	107.8	80.5	69.6
Feb 19	MemphisAdjEM #152	H	W 87–66	−9.5	W+11.5	163.5	U153	124.2	94.2	70.1
Feb 15	FAUAdjEM #122	A	W 83–81 OT	−5.0	L−3.0	166.5	U164	108.3	105.7	76.6
Feb 11	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	W 66–58	−2.0	W+6.0	160.0	U124	95.1	83.5	69.4

George Mason

Against the spread

Season

16-16

Home

11-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

8-11

Road

6-4

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −7.2

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 71–77	−3.0	L−9.0	141.5	O148	112.8	122.3	63.0
Mar 12	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	N	L 57–63	−2.5	L−8.5	142.5	U120	93.7	103.5	60.9
Mar 7	#25Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	W 86–57	+7.0	W+36.0	147.0	U143	136.6	90.6	62.9
Mar 3	VCUAdjEM #39	A	L 65–70	+10.0	W+5.0	147.5	U135	106.9	115.1	60.8
Feb 28	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	W 71–58	−3.5	W+9.5	147.0	U129	119.8	97.9	59.3
Feb 25	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	A	L 63–81	−1.0	L−19.0	136.5	O144	97.7	125.7	64.5
Feb 18	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 67–82	−2.0	L−17.0	137.0	O149	106.8	130.8	62.7
Feb 13	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	L 53–72	+3.5	L−15.5	150.0	U125	90.2	122.6	58.8
Feb 10	RichmondAdjEM #150	A	L 70–82	−3.0	L−15.0	140.0	O152	99.8	116.9	70.1
Feb 7	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	W 60–52	−7.0	W+1.0	139.5	U112	99.5	86.2	60.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

South FloridaGeorge Mason

Efficiency

114.7

110.8

103.3

105.7

71.0

65.9

—

Shooting

50.6%

52.7%

52.0%

54.3%

32.5%

33.3%

74.6%

72.5%

40.4%

41.1%

Ball control & glass

15.1%

15.8%

19.1%

15.4%

38.1%

31.3%

31.9%

28.3%

8.6%

9.6%

13.1%

9.8%

Style

43.8%

35.2%

43.5%

46.4%

16.5%

12.1%

58.4%

49.9%

29.9%

33.9%

Roster

3.18

3.24

6'4.3"

6'6"

84.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

South Florida

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%

Lost

Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

George Mason

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.