CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFirst Horizon Coliseum, Greensboro, NC

SC Upstate

Efficiency #284

2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf

UNC Greensboro

Efficiency #301

2025-26: 15-19 · 11-10 conf

Sat, Nov 21 · TBD

73.3

win 39%

Projected

76.4

win 61%

No line posted yet.

Model: UNCG −3.1 · total 149.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UNC Greensboro 68.6, SC Upstate 68.5 → 68.7 possessions

+0.8

UNC Greensboro offense vs SC Upstate defense

−0.1

SC Upstate offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

+0.7

Projected total

149.6

Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UNC Greensboro offense vs SC Upstate defense

−0.1

SC Upstate offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

−0.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

UNC Greensboro by 3.1

3.1

SC Upstate side ◂▸ UNC Greensboro side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +3.2 against +3.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UNC Greensboro.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SC Upstate is the faster team (69.3, #128 of 365) and UNC Greensboro the slower (68.5, #170). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.6

model

Projected team totals

73.3 / 76.4

SC Upstate / UNC Greensboro

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#171

SC Upstate

68.6#161

UNC Greensboro

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashUNC Greensboro

Style match: ball movement

UNC Greensboro creates off the dribble (assists on 46.9% of its baskets); SC Upstate breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 43.8% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UNC Greensboro's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SC Upstate at about 41.0% of its shots from three, UNC Greensboro about 37.9%.

DefenseSC Upstate

SC Upstate's shot-blocking

SC Upstate ranks #39 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.3% of UNC Greensboro's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageUNC Greensboro

Where UNC Greensboro scores: ball control

UNC Greensboro turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#63); SC Upstate forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#194). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSC Upstate

Style clash: 3-point volume

SC Upstate rarely shoots threes (35.6% of its shots); UNC Greensboro lets opponents take 46.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashSC Upstate

Style clash: paint scoring

SC Upstate scores 46.2% of its points in the paint; UNC Greensboro protects the paint (38.8% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

SC Upstate has the ball

OffenseUNC Greensboro allowsvs D1 avg

48.3% #307

56.2% #347

+1.2 pt/100

18.2% #283

13.7% #343

+1.4 pt/100

29.2% #231

29.0% #104

-0.9 pt/100

32.8% #239

30.6% #74

-0.5 pt/100

68.1% #324

—

-0.4 pt/100

SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

UNC Greensboro has the ball

OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #146

51.0% #156

+0.4 pt/100

15.0% #63

16.4% #194

+1.6 pt/100

28.1% #259

31.4% #224

-0.7 pt/100

42.0% #31

36.0% #211

+0.5 pt/100

70.4% #256

—

-0.2 pt/100

UNC Greensboro net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SC Upstateoffense vsUNC Greensborodefense

Share of shots by zone

SC Upstate shoots

41.2

7.8

15.6

35.4

UNC Greensboro allows

33.7

5.0

14.7

46.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.8%#303	63.6%#336	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#136	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	37.9%#155	38.0%
Three	31.4%#308	38.0%#357	33.7%

UNC Greensborooffense vsSC Upstatedefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Greensboro shoots

34.6

5.7

19.9

39.9

SC Upstate allows

42.0

6.0

15.7

36.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#197	54.7%#56	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.2%#100	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.8%#83	35.7%#96	38.0%
Three	35.6%#80	35.6%#289	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SC Upstate

−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#231

Def reb %

68.6%

#224

Turnover %

18.2%

#283

Forced TO %

16.4%

#194

FT rate

32.8%

#239

FT allowed

36.0%

#211

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

UNC Greensboro

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#102 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#259

Def reb %

71.0%

#104

Turnover %

15.0%

#63

Forced TO %

13.7%

#343

FT rate

42.0%

#31

FT allowed

30.6%

#74

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+1.2

UNC Greensboro has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#102 of 365) to SC Upstate’s −2.6 (#289).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Greensboro2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Justin Neely	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	32.3	17.9	11.5	2.4	2.2	56.5%	31.4%	1.5	78.4%	29.6%
21	KJ Younger	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	28.5	15.1	4.7	1.2	1.2	52.9%	34.1%	5.4	71.1%	29.8%
13	Donald Whitehead Jr.	G	Sr	5'10"	34-20	26.2	10.1	1.6	2.4	1.1	45.7%	30.7%	4.9	69.2%	24.8%
6	Noah Norgaard	G	Fr	6'2"	34-26	25.1	7.7	2.1	1.5	1.2	51.1%	37.2%	3.8	70.0%	19.5%
11	Valentino Pinedo	F	Sr	6'8"	32-28	26.4	7.3	4.9	1.3	1.0	60.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.9%
45	Lilian Marville	G	Fr	6'1"	31-21	26.2	9.5	2.0	2.3	1.3	56.5%	52.2%	3.0	75.0%	20.7%
16	Domas Kauzonas	F	Jr	6'10"	33-6	9.9	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.7	57.5%	—	0.0	42.3%	19.2%
4	Assane Mandian	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	8.0	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	56.4%	37.0%	1.2	100.0%	16.2%
24	Landon King	G	Jr	6'1"	20-1	8.6	2.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	44.4%	32.4%	1.9	42.9%	21.5%
7	Clyde Bailey II	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	6.7	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.3	52.8%	27.3%	0.8	80.0%	15.6%
0	Antwann Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	7-0	11.4	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.9	47.9%	37.5%	1.1	50.0%	21.8%
8	Chane Bynum	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	4.2	1.7	1.5	0.2	0.2	36.5%	23.1%	1.0	75.0%	29.5%
9	Braylen Bowman	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.2	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	0.8	—	18.6%
3	Jordan Brown	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SC Upstate

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

6-6

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-15-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.4

Under 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	N	L 64–65	−11.0	L−12.0	144.0	U129	99.1	100.7	64.6
Feb 28	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 71–61	−13.5	L−3.5	146.5	U132	101.0	86.8	70.3
Feb 26	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 59–71	+8.0	L−4.0	153.0	U130	87.6	105.4	67.4
Feb 21	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 76–74	+1.0	W+3.0	141.5	O150	118.0	114.9	64.4
Feb 19	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 64–68	+13.0	W+9.0	155.0	U132	95.3	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	L 75–82 OT	+6.0	L−1.0	146.5	O157	89.6	98.0	83.7
Feb 12	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 70–95	+14.0	L−11.0	154.5	O165	93.3	126.6	75.1
Feb 7	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	W 100–94 OT	+1.0	W+7.0	151.5	O194	129.9	122.1	77.0
Feb 4	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	L 67–76	+6.5	L−2.5	140.5	O143	99.2	112.5	67.6
Jan 29	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	W 65–60	+1.5	W+6.5	147.5	U125	92.3	85.2	70.4

UNC Greensboro

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

5-8

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +4.9

Covered 5 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-10

Home

9-3

Road

10-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.3

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 75–81	+6.0	P0.0	148.5	O156	114.3	123.4	65.6
Mar 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	N	W 75–72	+5.5	W+8.5	156.5	U147	114.3	109.7	65.6
Mar 6	VMIAdjEM #361	N	W 84–70	−6.5	W+7.5	156.0	U154	124.6	103.8	67.4
Feb 28	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 78–87	+9.5	W+0.5	157.0	O165	107.4	119.8	72.6
Feb 26	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 85–80	+3.5	W+8.5	157.5	O165	110.8	104.3	76.7
Feb 21	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 75–87	+6.0	L−6.0	149.0	O162	112.1	130.1	66.9
Feb 18	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	A	L 77–91	+6.0	L−8.0	155.0	O168	109.3	129.1	70.5
Feb 14	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	W 99–89	+2.0	W+12.0	155.5	O188	141.1	126.8	70.2
Feb 11	VMIAdjEM #361	H	W 92–71	−8.5	W+12.5	151.0	O163	133.0	102.7	69.2
Feb 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	A	W 67–64	+10.5	W+13.5	150.0	U131	106.3	101.5	63.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SC UpstateUNC Greensboro

Efficiency

102.8

107.8

109.0

115.2

68.5

68.6

—

Shooting

48.3%

52.0%

48.9%

51.0%

31.4%

35.6%

68.1%

70.4%

32.8%

42.0%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

15.0%

16.4%

13.7%

29.2%

28.1%

31.4%

29.0%

10.6%

8.7%

11.0%

9.1%

Style

35.6%

40.2%

46.2%

37.8%

14.5%

11.3%

46.0%

46.9%

35.4%

29.3%

Roster

2.98

2.57

6'4.5"

6'3.7"

—

92.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SC Upstate

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UNC Greensboro

Returning minutes: 92.8%Returning production: 95.0%

Lost

Clinton Efinda 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Jordan Brown no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.