CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUNF Arena, Jacksonville, FL
Little Rock
Efficiency #300
2025-26: 12-20 · 9-12 conf
@
North Florida
Efficiency #338
2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
77.8
win 46%
Projected
79.1
win 54%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNF −1.2 · total 156.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Florida 70.4, Little Rock 67.7 → 69.8 possessions
+3.3
North Florida offense vs Little Rock defense
+1.3
Little Rock offense vs North Florida defense
+4.1
Projected total
156.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Florida offense vs Little Rock defense
+1.3
Little Rock offense vs North Florida defense
−4.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
North Florida by 1.2
1.2
Little Rock side ◂▸ North Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Florida is the faster team (71.9, #26 of 365) and Little Rock the slower (67.6, #217). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.9
model
Projected team totals
77.8 / 79.1
Little Rock / North Florida
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#233
Little Rock
70.4#29
North Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
DefenseLittle Rock
Little Rock's shot-blocking
Little Rock ranks #37 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of North Florida's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageLittle Rock
Where Little Rock scores: the offensive glass
Little Rock rebounds 31.5% of its own misses (#143); North Florida lets opponents grab 37.6% of their own misses (#361). Expect about 34.7%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNorth Florida
Where North Florida struggles: ball control
North Florida turns it over on 17.9% of possessions (#264); Little Rock forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#71). Expect about 18.5%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversLittle Rock
Little Rock protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Little Rock's offense.
ClashLittle Rock
Style match: paint scoring
Little Rock scores 47.2% of its points in the paint; North Florida gives up 48.5% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.8% — both habits push the same way.
Little Rock has the ball
OffenseNorth Florida allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #273
56.3% #349
+2.1 pt/100
18.4% #293
12.7% #362
+2.0 pt/100
31.5% #143
37.6% #361
+2.6 pt/100
27.7% #345
31.4% #91
-0.7 pt/100
68.0% #327
—
-0.4 pt/100
Little Rock net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100
North Florida has the ball
OffenseLittle Rock allowsvs D1 avg
52.9% #106
51.8% #199
+1.7 pt/100
17.9% #264
18.5% #71
-2.1 pt/100
25.2% #335
36.6% #357
-0.4 pt/100
28.8% #333
33.1% #134
-0.5 pt/100
77.8% #20
—
+0.5 pt/100
North Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Little Rockoffense vsNorth Floridadefense
Share of shots by zone
Little Rock shoots
North Florida allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.8%#5762.9%#32158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.4%#32347.1%#33439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.6%#34945.1%#35038.0%
Three35.3%#9635.1%#25333.7%
North Floridaoffense vsLittle Rockdefense
Share of shots by zone
North Florida shoots
Little Rock allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.2%#22362.6%#31558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.8%#34428.7%#1039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)46.5%#629.6%#538.0%
Three35.0%#11734.4%#21133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Little Rock
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#143
Def reb %
63.4%
#357
Turnover %
18.4%
#293
Forced TO %
18.5%
#71
FT rate
27.7%
#345
FT allowed
33.1%
#134
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+0.6
North Florida
−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#362 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#335
Def reb %
62.4%
#361
Turnover %
17.9%
#264
Forced TO %
12.7%
#362
FT rate
28.8%
#333
FT allowed
31.4%
#91
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−2.3
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.0

Little Rock has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.8 (#296 of 365) to North Florida’s −8.0 (#362).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Little Rock2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
11Johnathan LawsonGSr6'7"31-3136.716.24.14.12.048.7%34.7%7.282.8%27.3%
0Braxton BaylessGSr6'2"32-3233.010.33.93.32.446.5%35.1%3.070.4%22.7%
24Cameron WallaceFJr6'8"32-2228.612.76.91.81.749.0%5.3%0.657.4%29.0%
32Tuongthach GatkekFSr6'9"29-2931.49.45.92.01.859.1%25.0%0.166.2%17.6%
15Kachi NzehFJr6'8"32-3228.411.74.81.31.854.9%41.5%3.769.9%24.9%
22Truman Claytor IVFJr6'6"28-016.26.31.50.71.247.0%34.3%2.472.4%27.5%
10Caleb PennyfeatherFSo6'9"29-411.82.22.30.30.345.5%100.0%0.033.3%14.2%
12Tracy Steele Jr.GSr6'3"24-010.91.71.30.60.843.6%38.1%0.935.3%14.6%
23Terrion BurgessFFr6'9"6-423.57.53.21.21.271.2%42.9%1.266.7%15.9%
1Joseph ThomasGSo6'3"13-110.53.20.80.30.450.0%45.5%1.780.0%19.7%
5Christian HughesGSo6'2"9-515.00.90.90.60.318.4%14.3%0.825.0%9.9%
4Kellen RobinsonGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Khasen RobinsonGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2KK RobinsonGSr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Travonne JacksonGSo6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Little RockNorth Florida
Efficiency
104.6
106.9
111.9
118.3
67.7
70.4
—
—
Shooting
49.4%
52.9%
47.9%
53.4%
35.3%
35.0%
68.0%
77.8%
27.7%
28.8%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
17.9%
18.5%
12.7%
31.5%
25.2%
36.6%
37.6%
10.6%
11.2%
5.6%
12.6%
Style
31.0%
51.7%
47.2%
36.0%
16.2%
11.3%
52.2%
50.6%
20.6%
30.3%
Roster
3.39
2.68
6'6.5"
6'5.1"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Little Rock
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

North Florida
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.