CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral sitePensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FLPensacola Invitational
Southern Miss
Efficiency #218
2025-26: 19-16 · 12-10 conf
vs
Nicholls
Efficiency #250
2025-26: 14-19 · 13-11 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
75.4
win 55%
Projected
74.0
win 45%
No line posted yet.
Model: USM −1.5 · total 149.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Nicholls 68.9, Southern Miss 69.4 → 70.0 possessions
+3.6
Nicholls offense vs Southern Miss defense
−1.9
Southern Miss offense vs Nicholls defense
−0.5
Projected total
149.4
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Nicholls offense vs Southern Miss defense
−1.9
Southern Miss offense vs Nicholls defense
+0.5
Southern Miss by 1.5
1.5
Southern Miss side ◂▸ Nicholls side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −1.4 against −1.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Nicholls.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern Miss is the faster team (69.6, #110 of 365) and Nicholls the slower (68.3, #180). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.4
model
Projected team totals
75.4 / 74.0
Southern Miss / Nicholls
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#89
Southern Miss
68.9#131
Nicholls

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSouthern Miss
Where Southern Miss struggles: ball control
Southern Miss turns it over on 18.4% of possessions (#290); Nicholls forces turnovers on 20.5% of opponent possessions (#15). Expect about 20.0%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseNicholls
Nicholls's ball-hawking
Nicholls ranks #13 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Southern Miss's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Southern Miss) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Southern Miss at about 30.3% of its shots from three, Nicholls about 43.0%.
GlassSouthern Miss
Southern Miss owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.5% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Southern Miss's offense.
Southern Miss has the ball
OffenseNicholls allowsvs D1 avg
49.0% #289
54.4% #311
+0.4 pt/100
18.4% #290
20.5% #15
-4.0 pt/100
32.5% #103
33.7% #314
+1.9 pt/100
43.2% #18
37.9% #259
+0.7 pt/100
73.6% #146
—
+0.1 pt/100
Southern Miss net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100
Nicholls has the ball
OffenseSouthern Miss allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #205
51.4% #177
-0.5 pt/100
17.4% #232
17.8% #109
-1.2 pt/100
28.1% #263
28.8% #97
-1.5 pt/100
34.5% #195
43.6% #343
+0.6 pt/100
66.2% #350
—
-0.5 pt/100
Nicholls net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Southern Missoffense vsNichollsdefense
Share of shots by zone
Southern Miss shoots
Nicholls allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.5%#10862.3%#30458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.9%#28948.5%#34339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18736.9%#12838.0%
Three28.9%#35534.6%#22433.7%
Nichollsoffense vsSouthern Missdefense
Share of shots by zone
Nicholls shoots
Southern Miss allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.8%#20357.8%#13958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.8%#22537.7%#12939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.1%#36035.6%#9338.0%
Three33.3%#21534.5%#21733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Southern Miss
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#142 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#103
Def reb %
71.2%
#97
Turnover %
18.4%
#290
Forced TO %
17.8%
#109
FT rate
43.2%
#18
FT allowed
43.6%
#343
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed−2.2
Nicholls
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#195 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#263
Def reb %
66.3%
#314
Turnover %
17.4%
#232
Forced TO %
20.5%
#15
FT rate
34.5%
#195
FT allowed
37.9%
#259
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+2.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7

Southern Miss has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#142 of 365) to Nicholls’s −0.4 (#195).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Southern Miss2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Southern Miss's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Tylik WeeksFJr6'7"34-3333.619.75.42.32.647.7%22.2%1.682.3%34.7%
13Dylan BrumfieldGSr6'5"35-3531.28.44.13.11.944.3%16.7%0.773.3%18.5%
15Djahi BinetFSr6'7"35-3326.411.37.90.91.363.5%33.3%0.371.1%21.6%
1Curt LewisGSr6'5"35-1923.25.42.10.80.652.1%36.9%4.059.1%14.2%
0Israel HartGSr6'3"34-1621.67.71.91.41.342.9%31.2%4.183.6%24.6%
10Isaac TaverasGJr6'6"22-2025.915.36.82.33.352.5%17.2%1.358.8%38.5%
3Chiante' TrambleGSo6'2"34-012.33.61.10.90.750.0%35.9%1.978.3%19.0%
22Tegra IzayCSr7'0"35-211.12.83.10.30.560.4%—0.059.3%14.1%
2Brewer CarruthGSo6'4"27-912.32.71.40.30.440.8%22.9%1.388.2%15.5%
7Fallou DiagneCSr6'11"24-26.81.90.80.10.245.7%28.6%1.575.0%18.4%
9Dalyn BrandonGSr6'5"20-47.81.71.10.20.257.4%38.9%0.960.0%12.1%
12Felipe PatinoGSo6'4"18-06.41.70.60.10.243.8%29.6%1.566.7%17.8%
11EJ PaymonFFr6'9"13-25.42.40.80.30.750.0%25.0%0.353.3%31.0%
21IJ EzumaFJr6'8"8-08.42.11.90.30.131.3%0.0%0.463.6%18.8%
6Robert CowherdGJr6'5"10-06.31.30.40.10.530.0%15.4%1.350.0%23.2%
14Blake LanderGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Chandler WattsGSo6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Jett MontgomeryGSo5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Southern MissNicholls
Efficiency
106.0
106.1
108.1
110.3
69.4
68.9
—
—
Shooting
49.0%
50.6%
51.3%
51.2%
28.9%
33.3%
73.6%
66.2%
43.2%
34.5%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
17.4%
17.8%
20.5%
32.5%
28.1%
28.8%
33.7%
10.0%
9.2%
10.7%
9.9%
Style
28.7%
43.9%
48.6%
41.2%
15.3%
16.6%
43.8%
52.1%
31.7%
30.5%
Roster
3.46
3.67
6'5.8"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Southern Miss
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Southern Miss's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Nicholls
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Nicholls's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.