CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePatrick Gymnasium, Burlington, VT

Brown

Efficiency #275

2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf

Vermont

Efficiency #199

2025-26: 22-12 · 14-5 conf

Sat, Nov 21 · 7:00 PM ET

65.7

win 28%

Projected

72.7

win 72%

No line posted yet.

Model: UVM −6.9 · total 138.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Vermont 66.5, Brown 67.9 → 66.1 possessions

−4.8

Vermont offense vs Brown defense

−0.9

Brown offense vs Vermont defense

−4.1

Projected total

138.4

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Vermont offense vs Brown defense

−0.9

Brown offense vs Vermont defense

+4.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Vermont by 6.9

6.9

Brown side ◂▸ Vermont side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +7.0 against +6.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Vermont.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Brown is the faster team (66.7, #260 of 365) and Vermont the slower (64.4, #346). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

138.4

model

Projected team totals

65.7 / 72.7

Brown / Vermont

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#220

Brown

66.5#317

Vermont

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Vermont averages 64.4 possessions per 40, Brown 66.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageBrown

Where Brown struggles: the offensive glass

Brown rebounds 29.0% of its own misses (#236); Vermont lets opponents grab 23.0% of their own misses (#2). Expect about 25.8%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Brown) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Brown at about 38.1% of its shots from three, Vermont about 45.9%.

ClashVermont

Style match: 3-point volume

Vermont takes 44.6% of its shots from three; Brown lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.9% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageVermont

Where Vermont struggles: the offensive glass

Vermont rebounds 26.2% of its own misses (#318); Brown lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#164). Expect about 27.3%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashBrown

Style clash: paint scoring

Brown scores 50.4% of its points in the paint; Vermont protects the paint (37.6% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

Brown has the ball

OffenseVermont allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #299

50.4% #121

-2.8 pt/100

19.5% #337

14.8% #305

-0.3 pt/100

29.0% #236

23.0% #2

-2.8 pt/100

28.1% #342

36.4% #226

-0.3 pt/100

68.4% #316

—

-0.4 pt/100

Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100

Vermont has the ball

OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #95

51.3% #176

+1.6 pt/100

14.3% #35

18.7% #62

+0.2 pt/100

26.2% #318

30.0% #164

-1.9 pt/100

31.1% #279

37.6% #253

-0.0 pt/100

71.9% #213

—

-0.0 pt/100

Vermont net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Brownoffense vsVermontdefense

Share of shots by zone

Brown shoots

44.3

4.7

14.9

36.1

Vermont allows

33.7

7.7

18.0

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#276	57.1%#118	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#90	41.9%#230	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.7%#297	35.1%#80	38.0%
Three	30.3%#338	35.3%#267	33.7%

Vermontoffense vsBrowndefense

Share of shots by zone

Vermont shoots

36.8

5.9

12.8

44.5

Brown allows

37.3

2.8

16.3

43.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#61	55.7%#77	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.0%#23	40.5%#200	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.3%#104	45.8%#355	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	33.5%#157	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Brown

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#236

Def reb %

70.0%

#164

Turnover %

19.5%

#337

Forced TO %

18.7%

#62

FT rate

28.1%

#342

FT allowed

37.6%

#253

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Vermont

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365

Off reb %

26.2%

#318

Def reb %

77.0%

Turnover %

14.3%

#35

Forced TO %

14.8%

#305

FT rate

31.1%

#279

FT allowed

36.4%

#226

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding+2.5

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Vermont has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#174 of 365) to Brown’s −3.1 (#308).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Vermont2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	TJ Hurley	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.9	15.0	3.5	1.4	0.9	58.1%	38.5%	6.0	87.3%	25.8%
20	TJ Long	G	Sr	6'4"	29-17	29.6	12.1	4.8	1.1	1.1	48.2%	31.4%	6.5	79.7%	26.7%
19	Gus Yalden	F	So	6'9"	31-30	25.5	16.1	5.8	2.1	1.7	56.1%	34.7%	3.8	67.3%	37.9%
34	Noah Barnett	F	So	6'9"	31-25	22.3	5.8	3.6	0.5	0.4	66.8%	50.0%	0.1	64.1%	13.3%
24	Ben Johnson	G	Sr	6'3"	34-17	18.2	5.4	2.1	1.1	0.3	59.7%	42.2%	3.2	72.2%	16.2%
21	Lucas Mari	G	Fr	6'6"	30-8	20.0	4.9	4.0	1.7	1.2	46.5%	26.3%	2.5	70.0%	18.8%
2	Ben Michaels	F	So	6'8"	31-11	13.1	2.0	2.2	0.4	0.5	38.3%	9.1%	0.7	62.5%	13.2%
1	Momo Nkugwa	G	Fr	6'3"	29-0	13.1	3.0	2.3	0.7	0.4	54.9%	25.0%	1.1	47.4%	15.0%
4	Jackson Skipper	F	Sr	6'7"	29-1	8.5	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.5	43.9%	27.3%	1.1	76.9%	17.6%
0	David Simon	F	So	6'11"	18-0	10.6	3.4	2.2	0.3	0.6	70.7%	57.1%	0.4	36.4%	18.6%
32	Trey Woodyard	F	Sr	6'6"	4-0	8.0	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	40.0%	1.3	—	13.6%
12	Ben Wesson	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	2.3	1.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	85.7%	66.7%	0.4	50.0%	32.4%
25	Sincere Clemons	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	2.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	26.3%
15	Drew Bessette	F	Fr	6'8"	5-0	2.4	0.4	1.4	0.2	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	19.0%
13	Chris Kuzemka	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Brown

Against the spread

Season

13-12

Home

5-7

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-13

Home

4-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.3

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 61–82	−1.0	L−22.0	147.0	U143	84.9	114.2	71.8
Feb 28	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 80–86	+9.5	W+3.5	157.5	O166	110.7	119.1	72.2
Feb 27	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	L 62–80	+5.5	L−12.5	140.0	O142	91.1	117.6	68.1
Feb 20	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 80–71	−3.0	W+6.0	130.0	O151	124.7	110.7	64.1
Feb 14	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 79–76	+3.0	W+6.0	139.5	O155	110.6	106.4	71.5
Feb 13	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	L 53–56	+8.0	W+5.0	131.5	U109	85.7	90.6	61.8
Feb 6	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 69–81	+15.0	W+3.0	139.0	O150	105.7	124.1	65.3
Jan 31	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	L 70–77 OT	−2.0	L−9.0	143.0	O147	93.7	103.1	74.7
Jan 30	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 59–69	+1.5	L−8.5	133.0	U128	96.8	113.3	60.9
Jan 24	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	L 53–63	+4.5	L−5.5	133.5	U116	83.1	98.7	63.8

Vermont

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

8-6

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-15

Home

6-8

Road

8-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −3.8

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 59–74	+1.5	L−13.5	134.5	U133	92.1	115.5	64.0
Mar 10	NJITAdjEM #331	H	W 63–54	−11.5	L−2.5	135.0	U117	99.6	85.4	63.2
Mar 7	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 77–57	−12.0	W+8.0	131.5	O134	129.5	95.9	59.5
Mar 3	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 69–56	−9.0	W+4.0	137.0	U125	112.9	91.7	61.1
Feb 26	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	W 66–64	−9.0	L−7.0	146.5	U130	101.5	98.4	65.0
Feb 21	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 70–64	−6.5	L−0.5	142.0	U134	110.2	100.8	63.5
Feb 19	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 62–75	−2.0	L−15.0	142.0	U137	92.1	111.4	67.3
Feb 14	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 90–63	−12.5	W+14.5	133.0	O153	134.8	94.4	66.8
Feb 12	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	A	W 73–65	−11.0	L−3.0	136.0	O138	111.3	99.1	65.6
Feb 7	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 80–57	−10.0	W+13.0	138.0	U137	117.9	84.0	67.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BrownVermont

Efficiency

101.4

108.2

107.4

109.4

67.9

66.5

—

Shooting

48.6%

53.1%

50.4%

55.7%

30.3%

33.3%

68.4%

71.9%

28.1%

31.1%

Ball control & glass

19.5%

14.3%

18.7%

14.8%

29.0%

26.2%

30.0%

23.0%

11.3%

8.3%

9.4%

8.3%

Style

36.3%

44.6%

50.4%

41.8%

13.3%

5.5%

59.5%

47.9%

37.1%

34.4%

Roster

2.49

2.78

6'4.9"

6'6.1"

—

85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Brown

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Vermont

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 85.6%

Lost

Sean Blake 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Chris Kuzemka no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Nov 9	2025-26	Vermont 89 – 84 Brown

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.