CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJohn Glaser Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Penn
Efficiency #162
2025-26: 18-12 · 11-5 conf
@
La Salle
Efficiency #256
2025-26: 9-23 · 5-14 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
72.8
win 50%
Projected
72.9
win 50%
No line posted yet.
Model: LAS −0.1 · total 145.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: La Salle 67.3, Penn 69.3 → 68.3 possessions
−0.1
La Salle offense vs Penn defense
−3.2
Penn offense vs La Salle defense
+0.7
Projected total
145.7
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
La Salle offense vs Penn defense
−3.2
Penn offense vs La Salle defense
−0.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
La Salle by 0.1
0.1
Penn side ◂▸ La Salle side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.6 against a projected 145.7, and the margin steps add to 0.0 against +0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help La Salle.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Penn is the faster team (68.7, #163 of 365) and La Salle the slower (66.4, #280). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.7
model
Projected team totals
72.8 / 72.9
Penn / La Salle
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.3#95
Penn
67.3#269
La Salle

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLa Salle
Where La Salle struggles: shooting
La Salle shoots an effective 45.4% (#357); Penn allows 52.1% (#218). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (La Salle, Penn, La Salle's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Penn at about 38.0% of its shots from three, La Salle about 33.2%.
AdvantagePenn
Where Penn scores: shooting
Penn shoots an effective 50.4% (#223); La Salle allows 55.0% (#329). Expect about 52.6%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLa Salle
La Salle owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for La Salle's offense.
Penn has the ball
OffenseLa Salle allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #223
55.0% #329
+1.9 pt/100
15.3% #89
17.1% #137
+0.7 pt/100
30.0% #200
32.4% #274
+0.4 pt/100
33.9% #212
31.5% #97
-0.3 pt/100
69.4% #285
—
-0.3 pt/100
Penn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
La Salle has the ball
OffensePenn allowsvs D1 avg
45.4% #357
52.1% #218
-4.3 pt/100
18.2% #284
17.3% #131
-1.4 pt/100
33.7% #75
31.3% #220
+1.7 pt/100
37.5% #113
27.5% #28
-0.4 pt/100
72.5% #189
—
+0.0 pt/100
La Salle net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Pennoffense vsLa Salledefense
Share of shots by zone
Penn shoots
La Salle allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33161.1%#27158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.2%#28642.0%#23139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.7%#19640.1%#24638.0%
Three38.3%#1336.5%#32433.7%
La Salleoffense vsPenndefense
Share of shots by zone
La Salle shoots
Penn allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.4%#34661.3%#27858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.9%#30546.0%#32039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24238.0%#16038.0%
Three30.0%#34232.2%#7333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Penn
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#63 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#200
Def reb %
68.7%
#220
Turnover %
15.3%
#89
Forced TO %
17.3%
#131
FT rate
33.9%
#212
FT allowed
27.5%
#28
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+2.0
La Salle
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#122 of 365
Off reb %
33.7%
#75
Def reb %
67.6%
#274
Turnover %
18.2%
#284
Forced TO %
17.1%
#137
FT rate
37.5%
#113
FT allowed
31.5%
#97
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+1.0

Penn has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#63 of 365) to La Salle’s +1.4 (#122).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Penn2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
12TJ PowerFJr6'9"30-3035.116.47.62.42.155.3%43.2%6.164.9%27.5%
7Michael ZanoniFSr6'5"30-3028.811.82.00.70.553.1%38.7%4.792.0%22.1%
0AJ LevineGSo6'0"30-3024.38.23.24.02.046.2%27.5%2.363.4%24.7%
25Augustus GerhartFJr6'9"30-3019.85.54.71.00.962.4%0.0%0.063.6%15.3%
30Lucas LuethFSo6'7"28-116.73.33.00.60.543.5%22.6%1.137.9%15.0%
5Cam ThrowerGSr6'3"27-617.06.01.61.31.147.8%41.9%2.386.8%23.1%
13Dalton ScantleburyCFr6'9"29-015.55.93.90.60.851.2%—0.062.3%23.2%
4Jay JonesGFr6'4"27-013.73.92.31.20.748.0%38.9%0.758.9%18.8%
35Niklas PolonowskiFJr6'6"23-06.01.40.70.20.140.3%31.8%1.063.6%15.6%
2Dylan WilliamsGSr5'11"7-08.72.11.01.61.040.6%25.0%0.633.3%24.9%
11Alex MassungGSo6'4"10-05.51.70.60.70.535.7%—0.070.0%24.2%
33Michelangelo ObertiCSo6'10"12-04.41.81.20.10.369.2%—0.080.0%20.8%
3Johnnie WalterFSr6'10"5-05.21.00.60.00.050.0%33.3%0.6—11.2%
21Payton KaminFFr6'7"4-03.51.00.30.30.040.0%0.0%0.3—18.4%
40William KruseFFr6'11"3-04.01.72.00.00.0125.0%100.0%0.3—8.7%
15Bradyn FosterFSo6'8"1-03.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
34Chris UbochiCSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Ryan AltmanFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
PennLa Salle
Efficiency
107.9
105.2
107.2
110.0
69.3
67.3
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
45.4%
46.5%
45.6%
38.3%
30.0%
69.4%
72.5%
33.9%
37.5%
Ball control & glass
15.3%
18.2%
17.3%
17.1%
30.0%
33.7%
31.3%
32.4%
8.5%
10.1%
9.3%
12.2%
Style
35.4%
31.5%
39.7%
46.1%
11.0%
11.4%
52.3%
56.0%
31.8%
34.8%
Roster
2.70
2.85
6'5.9"
6'5.5"
88.4%
96.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Penn
Returning minutes: 88.4%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
  • Ethan Roberts 23.4 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
Added
  • Ryan Altman no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Ubochi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

La Salle
Returning minutes: 96.7%Returning production: 97.7%
Lost
  • Nas Hart 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac
Added
  • Josue Grullon no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 97% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 292025-26La Salle 71 – 73 Penn

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.