CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUW-Milwaukee Panther Arena, Milwaukee, WI
St Thomas
Efficiency #84
2025-26: 24-10 · 13-5 conf
@
Milwaukee
Efficiency #262
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
78.0
win 60%
Projected
75.1
win 40%
No line posted yet.
Model: STMN −3.0 · total 153.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Milwaukee 68.5, St Thomas 69.0 → 69.2 possessions
+1.9
Milwaukee offense vs St Thomas defense
−2.0
St Thomas offense vs Milwaukee defense
+5.0
Projected total
153.1
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Milwaukee offense vs St Thomas defense
−2.0
St Thomas offense vs Milwaukee defense
−5.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
St Thomas by 3.0
3.0
St Thomas side ◂▸ Milwaukee side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Milwaukee.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Thomas is the faster team (69.7, #104 of 365) and Milwaukee the slower (69.1, #143). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.1
model
Projected team totals
78.0 / 75.1
St Thomas / Milwaukee
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#122
St Thomas
68.5#168
Milwaukee

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSt Thomas
Where St Thomas scores: shooting
St Thomas shoots an effective 58.9% (#5); Milwaukee allows 55.5% (#340). Expect about 57.8%, 6.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +9.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSt Thomas
St Thomas gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.4% is worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions against St Thomas's offense.
TurnoversSt Thomas
St Thomas protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for St Thomas's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Milwaukee's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect St Thomas at about 45.4% of its shots from three, Milwaukee about 39.4%.
AdvantageMilwaukee
Where Milwaukee struggles: shooting
Milwaukee shoots an effective 49.9% (#242); St Thomas allows 50.7% (#139). Expect about 50.2%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
St Thomas has the ball
OffenseMilwaukee allowsvs D1 avg
58.9% #5
55.5% #340
+9.3 pt/100
14.3% #36
15.8% #228
+2.4 pt/100
22.6% #353
29.2% #121
-3.7 pt/100
33.8% #220
35.9% #208
-0.0 pt/100
68.7% #305
—
-0.3 pt/100
St Thomas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100
Milwaukee has the ball
OffenseSt Thomas allowsvs D1 avg
49.9% #242
50.7% #139
-1.6 pt/100
15.2% #81
17.0% #149
+0.9 pt/100
33.0% #88
26.6% #25
+0.0 pt/100
32.1% #256
30.7% #78
-0.5 pt/100
68.7% #307
—
-0.3 pt/100
Milwaukee net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
St Thomasoffense vsMilwaukeedefense
Share of shots by zone
St Thomas shoots
Milwaukee allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim68.5%#361.6%#28758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.6%#4446.9%#33039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23438.7%#18938.0%
Three36.0%#5736.5%#32933.7%
Milwaukeeoffense vsSt Thomasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Milwaukee shoots
St Thomas allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.2%#29558.4%#15858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.2%#14033.8%#4139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.7%#12437.9%#15638.0%
Three32.3%#26631.7%#5233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
St Thomas
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#120 of 365
Off reb %
22.6%
#353
Def reb %
73.4%
#25
Turnover %
14.3%
#36
Forced TO %
17.0%
#149
FT rate
33.8%
#220
FT allowed
30.7%
#78
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Milwaukee
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#146 of 365
Off reb %
33.0%
#88
Def reb %
70.8%
#121
Turnover %
15.2%
#81
Forced TO %
15.8%
#228
FT rate
32.1%
#256
FT allowed
35.9%
#208
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed−0.2

St Thomas has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#120 of 365) to Milwaukee’s +0.9 (#146).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

St Thomas2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Nick JanowskiGFr6'4"34-3431.516.15.12.11.357.0%33.9%5.464.1%27.6%
4Nolan MinessaleGSo6'5"34-3431.019.84.64.32.255.4%30.6%4.275.0%34.7%
32Carter BjerkeFJr6'9"34-3424.99.43.41.20.767.3%44.9%5.258.8%17.9%
34Ben OosterbaanFSo6'6"34-3424.07.64.21.60.859.5%36.8%3.169.2%16.9%
0Isaiah Johnson-AriguFSo6'7"33-021.410.54.01.11.360.0%32.5%2.466.7%26.2%
11Austin HerroGSo6'3"27-2423.95.54.03.51.360.2%37.8%1.472.0%13.8%
12Ryan DufaultGSr6'0"33-917.75.72.31.80.768.9%33.3%0.366.0%15.6%
2Jermaine ColemanGSo6'7"34-013.94.41.90.50.454.7%34.0%3.064.7%17.7%
1Hayden TibbitsGSo5'11"26-111.03.11.01.10.353.9%34.1%1.752.4%16.2%
3Ryan LaffertyGSo6'5"11-013.51.01.91.31.145.8%20.0%0.50.0%9.5%
5Tim FranksGFr6'5"16-04.02.10.80.40.166.7%60.0%0.671.4%22.6%
10Tommy Humphries Jr.GSo6'5"9-04.21.10.70.20.034.6%25.0%0.433.3%20.4%
15Adam TauerGSo6'3"12-02.80.40.30.20.140.0%0.0%0.150.0%11.3%
20Jack TauerGSr6'2"11-01.70.30.30.10.075.0%100.0%0.10.0%9.9%
24Kyle CountsFFr6'7"5-03.81.00.20.20.283.3%50.0%0.4—12.3%
13Luka MomcilovicFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
St ThomasMilwaukee
Efficiency
111.9
107.1
107.0
112.2
69.0
68.5
—
—
Shooting
58.9%
49.9%
63.0%
50.8%
36.0%
32.3%
68.7%
68.7%
33.8%
32.1%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
15.2%
17.0%
15.8%
22.6%
33.0%
26.6%
29.2%
7.7%
8.4%
8.3%
9.5%
Style
46.3%
38.1%
46.5%
44.2%
12.6%
16.7%
56.7%
48.1%
32.7%
35.0%
Roster
2.13
2.89
6'4.9"
6'4.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
St Thomas
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Milwaukee
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Milwaukee's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.