CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center, West Haven, CT
New Hampshire
Efficiency #340
2025-26: 9-21 · 5-12 conf
@
New Haven
Efficiency #326
2025-26: 14-17 · 9-9 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
64.6
win 33%
Projected
69.7
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: NHVN −5.1 · total 134.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: New Haven 65.7, New Hampshire 68.3 → 65.7 possessions
−5.7
New Haven offense vs New Hampshire defense
−3.5
New Hampshire offense vs New Haven defense
−4.8
Projected total
134.3
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
New Haven offense vs New Hampshire defense
−3.5
New Hampshire offense vs New Haven defense
+4.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
New Haven by 5.1
5.1
New Hampshire side ◂▸ New Haven side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 134.2 against a projected 134.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help New Haven.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Hampshire is the faster team (67.1, #237 of 365) and New Haven the slower (63.5, #360). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.3
model
Projected team totals
64.6 / 69.7
New Hampshire / New Haven
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#184
New Hampshire
65.7#349
New Haven

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageNew Haven
Where New Haven struggles: the offensive glass
New Haven rebounds 21.5% of its own misses (#359); New Hampshire lets opponents grab 26.9% of their own misses (#32). Expect about 22.5%, 7.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
New Haven averages 63.5 possessions per 40, New Hampshire 67.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNew Hampshire
Where New Hampshire struggles: shooting
New Hampshire shoots an effective 46.7% (#344); New Haven allows 51.8% (#203). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
GlassNew Hampshire
New Hampshire gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.4% is worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions against New Hampshire's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (New Haven, New Hampshire) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect New Hampshire at about 41.7% of its shots from three, New Haven about 38.1%.
New Hampshire has the ball
OffenseNew Haven allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #344
51.8% #203
-3.4 pt/100
16.5% #168
17.1% #142
-0.1 pt/100
25.7% #329
26.8% #30
-3.1 pt/100
28.5% #338
27.7% #31
-0.9 pt/100
65.1% #359
—
-0.6 pt/100
New Hampshire net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.1 pts/100
New Haven has the ball
OffenseNew Hampshire allowsvs D1 avg
48.7% #296
53.4% #282
-0.5 pt/100
17.8% #257
15.8% #231
+0.1 pt/100
21.5% #359
26.9% #32
-4.8 pt/100
31.7% #261
35.8% #206
-0.1 pt/100
70.2% #266
—
-0.2 pt/100
New Haven net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
New Hampshireoffense vsNew Havendefense
Share of shots by zone
New Hampshire shoots
New Haven allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.2%#34757.9%#14658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.6%#25545.2%#30539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.4%#34438.5%#17938.0%
Three30.5%#33334.3%#19833.7%
New Havenoffense vsNew Hampshiredefense
Share of shots by zone
New Haven shoots
New Hampshire allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9259.3%#20258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.2%#26446.2%#32139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.2%#32740.6%#26238.0%
Three30.2%#34034.3%#20433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
New Hampshire
−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#288 of 365
Off reb %
25.7%
#329
Def reb %
73.1%
#32
Turnover %
16.5%
#168
Forced TO %
15.8%
#231
FT rate
28.5%
#338
FT allowed
35.8%
#206
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed−0.2
New Haven
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#230 of 365
Off reb %
21.5%
#359
Def reb %
73.2%
#30
Turnover %
17.8%
#257
Forced TO %
17.1%
#142
FT rate
31.7%
#261
FT allowed
27.7%
#31
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+1.9

New Haven has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#230 of 365) to New Hampshire’s −2.6 (#288).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

New Hampshire2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
15Davide PoserFJr6'4"30-3028.57.02.91.60.747.6%32.6%5.866.7%16.3%
7John SquireFSo6'8"30-3026.76.15.71.41.260.0%26.7%0.562.3%13.6%
23Belal El ShakeryFJr6'8"29-2926.611.48.21.52.043.3%5.9%1.249.1%33.1%
0Tyler BikeGFr5'10"30-1523.87.51.62.00.850.5%37.5%4.870.8%19.6%
8KiJan RobinsonGJr6'3"26-1725.510.71.62.31.647.3%30.3%3.882.7%27.1%
5R.J. KennedyGFr6'1"30-519.65.31.80.81.145.6%31.0%2.970.6%19.7%
10Comeh EmuoborGJr6'5"28-118.99.04.30.61.641.7%10.7%1.065.1%35.4%
6Giannos XanthopoulosCFr6'10"29-06.41.71.90.10.447.5%30.8%0.491.7%17.6%
24Jon O'NeillFSo6'9"15-06.21.32.50.20.175.0%—0.050.0%9.3%
4Myles BlackleyGFr6'4"11-03.70.70.30.30.115.4%0.0%0.6100.0%21.3%
3Dylan SaundersFJr6'8"12-03.31.70.60.10.281.8%60.0%0.8100.0%19.8%
14Antoni SiewrukGSo6'9"5-03.81.41.20.40.250.0%33.3%0.60.0%23.9%
11Nick SanfordGSo6'1"6-01.70.00.20.00.30.0%—0.0—17.0%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
New HampshireNew Haven
Efficiency
100.1
100.1
111.6
109.6
68.3
65.7
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
48.7%
47.4%
51.0%
30.5%
30.2%
65.1%
70.2%
28.5%
31.7%
Ball control & glass
16.5%
17.8%
15.8%
17.1%
25.7%
21.5%
26.9%
26.8%
9.1%
9.3%
11.3%
7.7%
Style
43.1%
39.8%
45.7%
45.0%
11.4%
9.8%
44.3%
49.7%
32.9%
27.6%
Roster
2.25
2.38
6'4.4"
6'5.9"
86.4%
82.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
New Hampshire
Returning minutes: 86.4%Returning production: 86.0%
Lost
  • Jack Graham 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Marist
Added
Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

New Haven
Returning minutes: 82.7%Returning production: 78.3%
Lost
  • Jabri Fitzpatrick 34.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Added
  • Justice Hanna no D1 minutes last season
  • Matiss Ogle no D1 minutes last season
  • John Oladipo no D1 minutes last season
  • Owen Hotaling no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.