CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHill Field House, Baltimore, MD
Cornell
Efficiency #135
2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf
@
Morgan St
Efficiency #349
2025-26: 14-16 · 10-5 conf
Sat, Nov 21 · 7:00 PM ET
87.8
win 73%
Projected
80.7
win 27%
No line posted yet.
Model: COR −7.1 · total 168.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Morgan St 70.3, Cornell 70.9 → 72.9 possessions
+10.0
Morgan St offense vs Cornell defense
−0.5
Cornell offense vs Morgan St defense
+10.8
Projected total
168.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Morgan St offense vs Cornell defense
−0.5
Cornell offense vs Morgan St defense
−10.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Cornell by 7.1
7.1
Cornell side ◂▸ Morgan St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Morgan St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and Morgan St the slower (70.7, #64). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
168.5
model
Projected team totals
87.8 / 80.7
Cornell / Morgan St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#19
Cornell
70.3#31
Morgan St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCornell
Where Cornell scores: shooting
Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); Morgan St allows 51.7% (#194). Expect about 55.7%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Morgan St averages 70.7 possessions per 40, Cornell 71.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Morgan St's defense, Cornell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cornell at about 44.3% of its shots from three, Morgan St about 35.2%.
ClashCornell
Style clash: 3-point volume
Cornell takes 51.6% of its shots from three; Morgan St runs teams off the line (31.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashCornell
Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting
Cornell (#14 in 3-point shooting) against Morgan St (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.5%. Historically Cornell's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).
Cornell has the ball
OffenseMorgan St allowsvs D1 avg
58.5% #7
51.7% #194
+6.2 pt/100
16.0% #139
16.5% #184
+0.8 pt/100
30.2% #193
35.2% #341
+1.3 pt/100
30.2% #304
50.9% #363
+0.9 pt/100
74.1% #124
—
+0.2 pt/100
Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.4 pts/100
Morgan St has the ball
OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg
45.8% #351
55.9% #343
-1.1 pt/100
17.8% #260
15.1% #279
+0.6 pt/100
30.7% #172
30.6% #187
+0.2 pt/100
42.7% #22
37.2% #244
+0.6 pt/100
74.3% #113
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morgan St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Cornelloffense vsMorgan Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Cornell shoots
Morgan St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.8%#7758.6%#16858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)51.5%#726.9%#539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.5%#3144.9%#34938.0%
Three38.3%#1431.5%#4333.7%
Morgan Stoffense vsCornelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Morgan St shoots
Cornell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.0%#34060.7%#25658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32644.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.1%#28941.7%#29338.0%
Three31.7%#29537.5%#34933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Cornell
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#193
Def reb %
69.4%
#187
Turnover %
16.0%
#139
Forced TO %
15.1%
#279
FT rate
30.2%
#304
FT allowed
37.2%
#244
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Morgan St
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#335 of 365
Off reb %
30.7%
#172
Def reb %
64.8%
#341
Turnover %
17.8%
#260
Forced TO %
16.5%
#184
FT rate
42.7%
#22
FT allowed
50.9%
#363
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.0
Foul shots allowed−4.0

Cornell has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.4 (#281 of 365) to Morgan St’s −4.3 (#335).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cornell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
31Cooper NoardGSr6'2"28-2827.518.23.32.01.661.6%37.6%7.690.3%31.6%
8Adam HintonGSr6'4"28-2824.612.53.11.91.359.1%41.5%4.877.6%26.1%
5Jacob BecclesGJr6'3"28-2723.47.72.53.11.352.9%32.8%2.267.3%19.8%
22Jake FiegenGSr6'4"24-1726.117.15.12.11.264.9%41.4%5.577.2%30.4%
21Kaspar SeppFJr6'7"28-1518.84.85.52.61.350.5%23.8%0.866.0%17.2%
24Josh BaldwinGSr6'5"26-1319.07.44.13.21.752.2%33.9%2.370.0%24.9%
7Anthony NimaniGSo6'4"22-017.35.41.61.91.065.5%52.0%1.184.6%16.4%
23DJ NixFSr6'6"27-1112.33.51.71.10.753.8%37.3%1.956.3%17.4%
4Gioacchino PanziniFSo6'5"26-010.83.92.00.60.577.6%50.0%0.957.1%15.9%
14Corbin ZentnerGSr5'9"24-111.63.30.90.80.357.8%38.6%2.466.7%14.6%
0DaMaryon FishburnGJr6'5"21-08.62.52.01.50.783.3%58.3%0.657.1%14.2%
10Mateen RafiqGSo6'0"18-09.34.31.31.50.366.4%46.3%2.371.4%20.2%
2Ian ImegwuFJr6'9"15-05.74.91.30.90.269.2%48.9%3.050.0%34.4%
3Jax AbalosFFr6'8"12-06.42.80.40.30.253.6%27.3%1.880.0%21.7%
55AJ LaBeauFJr6'10"10-04.10.71.21.00.533.3%0.0%0.133.3%19.3%
12Ryan BurbachGFr6'3"5-08.22.61.60.20.431.6%15.4%2.6100.0%27.3%
11Ty IwanonkiwFSo6'9"3-07.74.01.00.70.066.7%44.4%3.0—19.2%
13AJ RodriguezGSo6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Blake LecklitnerFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Elijah GriffinGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CornellMorgan St
Efficiency
116.2
102.0
114.3
115.6
70.9
70.3
—
—
Shooting
58.5%
45.8%
59.7%
44.9%
38.3%
31.7%
74.1%
74.3%
30.2%
42.7%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
17.8%
15.1%
16.5%
30.2%
30.7%
30.6%
35.2%
9.1%
9.4%
9.6%
10.4%
Style
51.6%
35.2%
38.9%
37.2%
14.4%
18.3%
66.7%
52.2%
41.9%
32.6%
Roster
3.37
3.58
6'3.9"
6'4.3"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Cornell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Morgan St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.